WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged
domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised as all wheat production is
projected at 1,665 million bushels, up 6 million from last month on higher Hard Red Winter
production more than offsetting reductions in Soft Red Winter and White Winter. The all
wheat yield is 44.9 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month but remaining below last
year. Total use is unchanged with all of the production increase added to ending stocks, now
projected at 562 million bushels. The 2023/24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.30
per bushel to $7.70 on larger U.S. and foreign wheat supplies.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased
trade, and larger stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 10.8 million tons to 1,066.9
million, primarily on larger production for Russia, India, the EU, and Ukraine. Russia is raised
3.5 million tons to 85.0 million, all for winter wheat, on generally favorable conditions after
abundant spring precipitation. India is increased 3.5 million tons to 113.5 million, mainly on
the government’s third Advanced Estimate. The EU is raised 1.5 million tons to 140.5 million
on continued favorable winter wheat conditions for most of the EU member countries.
Ukraine is increased 1.0 million tons to 17.5 million on favorable weather conditions in
southern Ukraine but production remains below last year on reduced harvested area.
Global consumption is increased 4.4 million tons to 796.1 million, mainly on higher feed and
residual use for China, Russia, and India. The heavy rains in China’s Henan province during
winter wheat harvest is expected to result in larger supplies of feed-quality wheat as China’s
feed and residual is raised 2.0 million tons to 34.0 million. World trade is raised 2.9 million
tons to 212.6 million, on increased exports by Russia, the EU, India, and Ukraine. Projected
2023/24 global ending stocks are raised 6.4 million tons to 270.7 million, largely on increases
for India, Russia, and the EU.
COARSE GRAINS: The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with
increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are
unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide surveybased indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels
reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022/23 that is partly offset by lower imports.
Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments
through the month of April, export inspection data for the month of May, and expectations of
competition from Brazil in the coming months. With no supply or use changes for 2023/24,
ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by
producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 3.8 million tons higher to 1,513.3
million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending
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stocks relative to last month. Corn production is raised for Ukraine, reflecting higher area
based on data reported by the government. For 2022/23, corn production is lowered for
Argentina but raised for Brazil. Foreign barley production for 2023/24 is slightly higher,
reflecting increases for Ukraine, the EU, and Turkey that are partly offset by reductions for
India and Iran.
Major global trade changes for 2023/24 include larger corn exports for Ukraine and increased
imports for the EU. For 2022/23, corn exports are lowered for Argentina and the United
States but raised for Ukraine, Brazil, and South Africa. Barley exports for 2023/24 are raised
for the EU and Ukraine. Foreign corn ending stocks are virtually unchanged relative to last
month, as increases for Paraguay and Zambia are offset by reductions for Mexico and South
Africa. Global corn ending stocks, at 314.0 million tons, are up 1.1 million from last month.
RICE: The only revision this month to the U.S. 2023/24 rice outlook is a reduction in supplies
due to smaller beginning stocks. Total supplies are projected at 258.3 million cwt, down 1.0
million from last month on a reduction in long-grain beginning stocks. With no other changes
to the balance sheet, total ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 30.3 million. The
2023/24 season-average farm rice price forecasts are unchanged at $15.00 per cwt for long
grain, $30.00 per cwt for California medium- and short-grain, and $16.50 per cwt for Other
States medium- and short-grain. All of the price forecasts are reductions from 2022/23.
Supplies, consumption, and ending stocks are increased for the 2023/24 global outlook,
while trade is unchanged. The third Advanced Estimate from the Government of India
increases production 4.0 million tons to 136.0 million for 2022/23. India’s larger production in
2022/23 leads to higher ending stocks and is the main reason global supplies increase for
2023/24, up 4.3 million tons to 694.0 million. Global 2023/24 production is unchanged from
last month as an increase for India is offset by reductions for Thailand and Cambodia. Trade
is unchanged at 55.8 million tons with an increase for India offset by a decrease for Thailand.
Total use is increased 0.8 million tons to 523.8 million, mainly on an increase in use for India.
Projected 2023/24 global ending stocks are increased 3.5 million tons to 170.2 million but
remain below a year earlier.
OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023/24 include
higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports for
2022/23, down 15 million bushels to 2.0 billion based on lower-than-expected shipments in
May and competition from South America. With increased supplies for 2023/24 and no use
changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 15 million. The
soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel, unchanged from last month.
The 2023/24 global soybean outlook includes higher beginning stocks, lower crush, and
higher ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks for the United States and Brazil are partly
offset by lower stocks for Argentina. The stock revisions reflect 2022/23 production changes
for Brazil, up 1.0 million tons to 156.0 million, and Argentina, down 2.0 million to 25.0 million.
Global crush for 2023/24 is lowered on lower crush for Argentina. Global 2023/24 ending
stocks are increased 0.8 million tons to 123.3 million with higher stocks for the United States,
Brazil, and the EU, which are partly offset by lower stocks for Argentina and Vietnam.
Other notable 2023/24 oilseed changes include higher rapeseed production for the EU that is
partly offset by lower production for Australia. Malaysian palm oil production is reduced for
2022/23 based on lower-than-expected monthly production estimates for March and April.
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SUGAR: Mexico production for 2022/23 is estimated at 5.230 million metric tons (MT), down
155,000 from last month on a low sugarcane yield below 60.0 MT/hectare (3.2 standard
deviations below the preceding 9-year average) and sucrose recovery below 11.0 percent
(0.9 standard deviations below). There are 10 factories operating as of May 27 and most are
expected to end their season soon. Half of the supply reduction is expected to lower
deliveries to the IMMEX re-export program to 272,500 MT, of which 247,500 is expected from
domestic production and 25,000 from imports. At this point import data from Mexico show
imports through March only at 10,867 MT while other countries reported exports to Mexico
are at 25,772 MT. The current 25,000 MT estimate for imports is based on imports reported
for 2021/22 but it should be noted that the preceding 5-year average was 50,742 MT with
82,287 MT supplied by non-USMCA countries in 2017/18. The other half of the supply
reduction is expected to lower exports by 67,917 MT to 1.002 million and ending stocks by
9,583 MT to 879,523. CONADESUCA reports exports not under license to the United States
to date at 18,291 MT, implying that exports to the United States are down 77,921 from last
month to 984,096 MT. Raw sugar with a polarity of less than 99.2 percent is estimated at
about 74 percent of this amount (that is, 728,231 MT).
Mexico production for 2023/24 at 5.900 million MT is unchanged from last month. Deliveries
for IMMEX are projected at 450,000 MT, a reduction of 50,000 from last month and close to
the average level between 2017/18 and 2021/22. Exports are residually projected up 50,000
MT to 1.348 million. All exports are projected to go to the United States under license.
U.S. beet sugar production for 2022/23 is projected at 5.171 million short tons, raw value
(STRV), an increase of 15,375 on higher sucrose recovery from sliced beets. Imports are
projected at 3.380 million STRV, a decrease of 66,046 on a 91,046-STRV decline in sugar
expected from Mexico partially offset by a 25,000-STRV increase in high-tier tariff imports.
With no change in use, these changes flow through to a reduction in ending stocks by 50,671
STRV. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 13.13 percent, down from 13.53 last
month.
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is projected lower than last month by 90,749 STRV on lower
beginning stocks and production partially offset by an increase in imports. Beet sugar
production is down by 11,468 STRV on a higher shrink projected by processors, and cane
sugar is down by 87,032 STRV on processors’ projections in Florida and Texas. Imports from
Mexico are increased by 58,422 STRV. There has been no USDA announcement on the
additional specialty sugar TRQ for 2023/24. There is no change in use and stocks are
lowered by the change in supply to 1.353 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of
10.56 percent, down from 11.26 percent last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The total U.S. red meat and poultry production
forecast for 2023 is reduced from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by
lower pork and poultry production. Beef production is raised with higher expected steer and
heifer, cow, and bull slaughter. Pork production is lowered slightly for the second quarter on a
more rapid pace of slaughter but lower carcass weights. No changes were made to the
outlying quarters; the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on June 29, will provide
indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early
2024. Broiler production is reduced on the pace of slaughter and recent hatchery data.
Turkey production is reduced on recent hatchery data. The egg production forecast reflects
first quarter data revisions. The beef production forecast for 2024 is raised slightly on higher
expected placements in 2023; forecasts for all other species are unchanged.
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No changes are made to beef trade for 2023 or 2024. Pork exports are raised for both 2023
and 2024 on demand strength. No change is made to the broiler export forecast but turkey
exports are raised slightly for 2023.
The 2023 cattle price forecast is raised from last month on firm demand. The hog price for
the second quarter is raised from last month on observed prices; no changes are made to
price forecasts for the outlying quarters. Broiler, turkey, and egg prices are reduced on
current price data. For 2024, strength in cattle prices is carried forward from 2023; no
changes are made to prices for hogs, broilers, turkeys, or eggs.
Milk production for 2023 is forecast lower than last month on slower growth in milk-per-cow
than previously expected. Milk production for 2024 is unchanged from last month.
For 2023, commercial exports are lowered on both fat and skim-solids bases. Fat basis
exports are lowered on recent data and primarily lower projections for butter. Skim-solids
basis exports are lowered on recent data and as weaker whey and lactose shipments are
expected to more than offset higher exports of nonfat/skim milk powders. For 2024, exports
are unchanged on a fat basis but are lowered on a skim-solids basis. Imports for 2023 on a
fat basis are raised on stronger expected demand for butter partly offset by weaker cheese
imports. Imports on a skim-solids basis are lowered primarily on lower projected milk protein
concentrate imports. Import forecasts for 2024 are unchanged.
For 2023, butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are raised from the previous
month on recent price strength and anticipated demand, while cheese and whey price
forecasts are lowered. With the changes in product prices, the Class III price is lowered, and
the Class IV price is raised. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $19.95 per cwt.
For 2024, prices are reduced for cheese and whey but raised for NDM. Butter prices are
unchanged from the previous month. The Class III price is forecast lower, while a higher
Class IV price is expected. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $19.65 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2023/24 U.S. cotton projections compared to last month show lower
beginning stocks, but higher production, exports, and ending stocks. Projected abandonment
in the Southwest has been reduced due to recent favorable rainfall, resulting in a production
increase of 1.0 million bales to 16.5 million. Overall U.S. abandonment is now projected at 16
percent, which would be less than half its 2022/23 level, and close to the long run average.
Exports are 500,000 bales higher, at 14.0 million, as both projected U.S. supplies and world
trade are higher this month. The 2023/24 season average upland farm price is down 1 cent
from the May forecast, at 77 cents per pound, and ending stocks are 200,000 bales higher, at
3.5 million. Revisions to the 2022/23 U.S. cotton balance sheet include a 100,000-bale
reduction in domestic mill use based on lagging spinning activity to date, and a 400,000-bale
increase in exports based on strong sales and shipment activity to date. Ending stocks for
2022/23 are now projected 300,000 bales lower than in May.
In the global 2023/24 cotton balance sheet, higher beginning stocks and production more
than offset an increase in consumption, and ending stocks are projected 515,000 bales
higher than in May, at 92.8 million. The forecast for world cotton production is 1.0 million
bales higher this month as larger crops in the United States and Pakistan offset a 500,000-
bale reduction for China. Consumption is 765,000 bales higher with increases in Vietnam,
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Turkey. World trade is also projected higher, up
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900,000 bales, led by increased U.S. exports and China imports. Beginning stocks are
254,000 bales higher as the consumption prospects for 2022/23 continue to decline, down
538,000 bales from the May forecast. The 2022/23 forecast for world production is virtually
unchanged as a 740,000-bale decline for West Africa’s Franc Zone is largely offset by
increases for the crops in India and Brazil.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
ROBERT BONNIE
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE
