NOTE: Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of
agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally. The April WASDE
represents an ongoing assessment of the short-term impacts as a result of this action.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, lower
domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Annual feed and residual use is
lowered 10 million bushels to 100 million. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31,
implied less feed and residual disappearance for the third quarter that was partially offset by
an upward revision to this category in the second quarter. Exports are lowered 15 million
bushels to 785 million as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets and exports would
be the lowest since 2015/16. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels
to 678 million but are still 20 percent lower than last year. The projected season-average
farm price (SAFP) is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.60 on NASS prices reported to date and
expectations for cash and futures prices for the remainder of 2021/22. This would be the
highest SAFP since 2012/13.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for slightly higher supplies, increased consumption,
lower trade, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are increased by 0.7 million tons to
1,069.5 million on a combination of higher beginning stocks for Pakistan, Brazil, and Saudi
Arabia and higher production for Pakistan and Argentina more than offsetting lower EU
production. Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 3.8 million tons to 791.1 million
primarily on higher food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use for India. Based on greater offtake
from government stocks to food distribution programs, India’s FSI is raised 4.4 million tons to
a record 100.9 million.
Projected 2021/22 global trade is lowered 3.0 million tons to 200.1 million as lower exports
by the EU, Ukraine, the United States, and Kazakhstan are not completely offset by higher
exports by Russia, Brazil, and Argentina. EU exports are reduced 3.5 million tons to 34.0
million on a lower-than-expected pace. Russia’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 33.0
million as it continues to export at competitive prices. Ukraine’s exports are lowered 1.0
million tons to 19.0 million as its Black Sea ports remain closed since the invasion by Russia
in February. The majority of Ukraine’s exports have already been shipped with limited
additional amounts expected for the remainder of 2021/22. Projected 2021/22 world ending
stocks are lowered 3.1 million tons to 278.4 million with India accounting for most of the
reduction that is only partially offset by higher EU stocks. Global stocks are projected at a
5-year low.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for offsetting changes to feed
and residual use and corn used for ethanol production, with unchanged ending stocks. Feed
and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.625 billion based on indicated
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disappearance during the December-February quarter. Corn used to produce ethanol is
raised 25 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and CoProducts Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during March as
indicated by Energy Information Administration data. With offsetting use changes, ending
stocks are unchanged at 1.440 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is raised 15
cents to $5.80 per bushel based on observed prices to date.
Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,501.6
million. This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, reduced
trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast
higher with increases for Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the EU. For Brazil, production is
raised reflecting increased area; yield expectations are essentially unchanged this month as
much of the second crop will enter the critical phase of development during April. Indonesia
corn production is higher as greater area more than offsets a slight reduction to yield. Corn
production is raised for the EU, mostly reflecting increases for Germany, Romania, and the
Czech Republic. Foreign barley production is lower with reductions for the EU and Tunisia.
Major global trade changes include lower forecast corn exports for Ukraine, Serbia, and
Paraguay, with increases for Brazil, Canada, and India. Corn imports are lowered for China,
Chile, and Bangladesh, but raised for Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly
reflecting increases for Ukraine, Serbia, the EU, and Indonesia that are partly offset by a
reduction for Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 305.5 million tons, are up 4.5 million
from last month.

RICE: This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice is unchanged from last
month but there are offsetting by-class changes for domestic use and residual. Based on the
NASS Rice Stocks report, long-grain domestic use is raised 2.0 million cwt to 115.0 million
and medium- and short-grain is reduced 2.0 million cwt to 30.5 million. The season-average
farm price for all rice is lowered $0.20 per cwt to $15.70 on lower-than-expected prices
reported by NASS for February for long-grain and expectations regarding prices and
marketings for the remainder of 2021/22.
The 2021/22 global outlook is for lower supplies, increased trade, fractionally higher use, and
reduced ending stocks. Global production is decreased by 1.0 million tons to 513.0 million,
primarily on a lower estimate for Indonesia. Indonesia’s 2021/22 rice production is lowered
1.0 million tons to 34.4 million, on lower area for its main-season rice crop that was mostly
harvested in February and March. Global trade in 2021/22 is raised 1.1 million tons to 52.5
million, with increased exports for India, Burma, Pakistan, and Thailand. India’s rice exports
for 2021/22 are increased 0.5 million tons to a record 21.0 million on a strong pace of exports
to date. China’s imports are increased 0.6 million tons to 5.2 million in 2021/22 based mostly
on a continued strong pace of broken rice imports, which are mostly expected for feed use.
Total global use is raised 0.1 million tons million tons to 511.2 million, as increases for China
and the Philippines offset a decrease for Indonesia. World ending stocks are projected 1.7
million tons lower to 188.8 million, primarily on decreases for Indonesia and India. Despite
the reduction, ending stocks would still be a record high, led by China and India which would
hold 60 and 22 percent of global ending stocks respectively.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include increased exports
and seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to
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2.12 billion, partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia. Seed use is
raised in line with record soybean plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings
report. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 260 million bushels, down 25 million from
last month. Soybean oil changes include increased exports and lower ending stocks.
Despite relatively high soybean oil prices, export sales have been stronger than expected
through March. A lower soybean meal export forecast is offset by slightly higher domestic
disappearance.
The season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged this month at $13.25 per bushel.
Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $420 per short ton. The soybean oil price is
projected at 70.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents.
The 2021/22 global soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush,
trade, and ending stocks. Global soybean production is reduced 3.1 million tons to 350.7
million on lower crops for Brazil and Paraguay. Soybean crush is lowered for Paraguay on
lower supplies and reduced for China on the current pace to date. China’s soybean imports
are also lowered 3 million tons to 91 million. Lower soybean exports for Brazil, Paraguay,
Russia, and Ukraine are partly offset by higher U.S. shipments. Global soybean stocks are
lowered 0.4 million tons to 89.6 million mainly on lower U.S. and Argentine stocks.
Another notable oilseed change this month includes lower sunflower seed crush for Ukraine,
leading to lower meal and oil supplies for major markets like India, China, the EU, and
Turkey. Partly offsetting these declines are higher palm and rapeseed oil imports for China,
higher soybean oil imports for India, higher soybean meal imports for Turkey, and higher
soybean imports for the EU.

SUGAR: USDA projects that decreases in 2021/22 U.S. sugar supply combined with an
increase in use lowers ending stocks to 1,566,978 short tons, raw value (STRV) for an
ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.53 percent.
U.S. sugar supply for 2021/22 is decreased 60,343 STRV as decreases in sugar production
are only mildly offset by an increase in high-tier tariff imports. Beet sugar production is
decreased by 50,670 STRV to 5,338,098. About half of the reduction is attributable to lower
production expected out of Michigan due to increased beet pile shrink reported by
processors this month and fewer sugarbeets imported from Canada for processing than
originally expected. With production in the Red River Valley region expected to run unusually
long into the first week of June, production is reduced marginally to reflect increased risk to
sugarbeets stored in increasingly warmer conditions. Also, production in California is
expected to be slightly lower than originally forecast. Beet campaigns in the Pacific
Northwest and Great Plains are planned to be over by the date of this WASDE and their
production estimates made in late March have been incorporated into projected beet sugar
production. Florida sugar production is decreased 22,335 STRV to 1,937,235 based on
lower sucrose recovery from processors’ continuing analyses of the effect of late January
freezes on the crop. Texas sugar production is reduced by 2,000 STRV to 128,000 based on
processor reporting. High-tier tariff imports are increased by 14,662 STRV on recorded
entries of raw sugar in the first two months of 2022. Projected high-tier tariff imports of
refined sugar are unchanged from last month.
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U.S. sugar deliveries for human consumption are increased by 65,000 STRV to 12,365,000
based on strong to-date deliveries by beet processors and on higher-than-expected direct
consumption imports though the end of February.
Sugar production for 2021/22 in Mexico is increased by 187,690 metric tons (MT) to
6,166,690. Analysis of production data through week 26 (March 26) of the campaign implies
that sugarcane yield and sucrose recovery will likely be higher than forecast but area harvest
is likely to be about 10,000 hectares lower. The new forecast for yield is 69.038 MT per
hectare; recovery is 11.29 percent; and area harvested is 791,383 hectares. This projection
is close to the third estimate recently released by CONADESUCA in Mexico. They estimate
production at 6,174,813 MT. They project a higher area harvested than USDA, a lower yield,
and about the same level of recovery. Sugar exports are projected to increase by the same
amount as the production increase. Exports under license to the United States are
unchanged from last month.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2022 forecast for total red meat and poultry
production is lowered from last month, as reduced forecasts for pork and poultry offset a
higher forecast for beef. The beef production forecast is raised from the previous month as
higher expected first quarter placements support larger fed cattle slaughter and more non-fed
cattle slaughter is expected. Pork production is lowered based on the Quarterly Hogs and
Pigs report, released on March 30, which estimated the March 1 inventory and indicated
producers’ intentions to reduce farrowings in March-May. Broiler production is reduced on
lower expected slaughter in the first quarter. No changes are made to production in the
outlying quarters. Turkey meat production is lowered as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
(HPAI) discoveries to date are resulting in tighter supplies of turkeys. Egg production is also
lowered as HPAI detections to date have affected the laying flock.
For 2022, beef exports are forecast higher from last month based on recent trade data. Pork
imports are raised while exports are reduced on tight supplies and strong domestic prices.
The broiler export forecast is raised as import demand has been strong in the early part of
the year. The turkey export forecast is reduced as HPAI discoveries are resulting in
restrictions from areas affected by outbreaks.
Fed-cattle prices are unchanged from last month. Hog prices are raised on tighter supplies
and continued strength in demand. Broiler prices are raised on current prices and continued
strength in demand. Turkey and egg price forecasts are raised on current prices and
expected tighter supplies.
The milk production forecast for 2022 is raised on higher dairy cow numbers. The fat basis
import forecast is lowered on lower expected imports of cheese and butterfat products, while
exports are raised on stronger cheese and butter shipments. On a skim-solids basis, the
import forecast is raised as imports of milk proteins are projected to more than offset weaker
projected cheese imports. Exports are raised on higher projected shipments for whey and
skim milk powder.
Price forecasts for cheese and butter were raised from the previous month on tighter stocks
and firm demand. Non-fat dry milk prices were raised fractionally while whey prices were
lowered, as U.S. prices are expected to become competitive with international prices. With
the higher cheese price more than offsetting a lower whey price, the Class III price is raised.
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The Class IV price is raised on higher butter and nonfat dry milk. The 2022 all milk price
forecast is increased to $25.80 per cwt.

COTTON: The U.S. cotton 2021/22 supply and demand forecasts are unchanged from last
month. The marketing year price received by upland cotton producers is projected at a
record 91 cents per pound, up 1 cent, reflecting recent high prices. The February 2022
upland farm price reached a record 100 cents per pound.
Month-to-month changes in the global 2021/22 cotton estimates are also small, with higher
production and lower consumption resulting in an 800,000-bale increase in ending stocks, to
83.4 million. Production is forecast 340,000 bales higher, with increases for Pakistan and
Greece. A 500,000-bale decline in China’s expected consumption resulted in a similar
decline in the global estimate, which now stands at 124.1 million. A 300,000-bale decline in
both China’s and Pakistan’s import forecasts are only partly offset by a 150,000-bale
increase for Turkey. World trade is projected about 450,000 bales lower this month, with
exports projected lower for India, Brazil, and Malaysia.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board,
Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
SETH MEYER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNAT