WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, larger
domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 6 million
bushels to 2,783 million, as reduced beginning stocks and lower production are partly offset
by larger imports. Production is reduced 11 million bushels to 1,971 million, as reported in
the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary released September 30. Imports are raised 10
million bushels to 115 million based on a strong pace of imports for the first three months of
the marketing year. Domestic use is raised 10 million bushels to 120 million on higher feed
and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report released September 30 indicated a yearto-year increase for first quarter (June-August) feed and residual disappearance from a year
earlier. Exports remain at 825 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes.
Projected ending stocks are lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million, but still up 17
percent from the previous year. The season average farm price is unchanged at $5.70 per
bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for reduced supplies, consumption, and trade but
slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies are reduced 1.9 million tons to 1,060.3 million
primarily on reduced production for the EU, Russia, India, and Brazil. Declines in supplies
were only partially offset by higher production for Ukraine and larger beginning stocks for
Russia. Global consumption is reduced 2.4 million tons to 802.5 million, with lower Food,
Seed, and Industrial use in India and Afghanistan. World trade is decreased 0.7 million tons
to 215.8 million on reduced exports by the EU that are partly offset by an increase for
Ukraine. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 0.5 million tons to 257.7 million,
but are still the lowest since 2015/16.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, larger
exports, and reduced ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 52 million
bushels lower based on the Grain Stocks report. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion
bushels, up 17 million from last month on a 0.2-bushel increase in yield to 183.8 bushels per
acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is raised
slightly to 15.0 billion bushels reflecting greater exports. With supply falling and use rising,
ending stocks are cut 58 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price
received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 2.3 million tons lower to 1.500 billion.
This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, smaller trade, and
essentially unchanged stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast
down with declines for Ukraine, Egypt, Russia, and the Philippines partially offset by an
increase for India. Ukraine and Russia are lowered based on harvest results to date. India
is higher as a reduction in area is more than offset by a higher yield forecast. Foreign barley
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production is down with cuts for Russia, the EU, and United Kingdom partly offset by
increases for Argentina and India.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024/25 include lower corn exports for Ukraine
and Russia with an increase for the United States. Corn imports are reduced for China and
Iran but raised for Egypt and the Philippines. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced slightly
to 255.8 million tons, mostly reflecting a reduction for China that is partly offset by increases
for Argentina and Mexico. World corn ending stocks, at 306.5 million tons, are down 1.8
million.
RICE: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. rice this month is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged
domestic use and exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher
production as imports are unchanged. The NASS October Crop Production report raised
2024/25 production by 0.1 million cwt to 219.8 million, all on a higher yield. The average all
rice yield is forecast at 7,590 pounds per acre, up 2 pounds from last month. Long-grain
production is forecast at 166.8 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production
at 53.0 million. Projected 2024/25 all rice ending stocks are raised by 0.1 million cwt to 45.7
million, up 16 percent from last year. The 2024/25 all rice season-average farm price is
unchanged at $15.60 per cwt.
The 2024/25 global outlook this month is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending
stocks. Supplies are raised 5.6 million tons to 710.3 million, primarily on larger beginning
stocks and production for India, where production is raised to a record 142.0 million tons. An
above-average monsoon season and more rice planted at the expense of cotton are factors
behind the record output. World 2024/25 consumption is raised 0.6 million tons to a record
528.1 million tons on increases in several countries more than offsetting a 1.0-million-ton
reduction for India. Global 2024/25 trade is 2.2 million tons higher at 56.5 million on larger
exports for India, which are raised 3.0 million tons to 21.0 million. India’s exports are higher
on the removal of several export restrictions, including its export ban on non-basmati white
rice at the end of September. Exports for Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam are all reduced
with the removal of India’s export ban. All these exporters had larger exports for 2023/24,
mostly in response to India’s export restrictions. Projected world ending stocks are raised
5.0 million tons to 182.2 million, primarily on higher stocks for India, where they are
increased 4.0 million tons to a record 43.0 million.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is forecast at 134.4 million tons, down 0.3
million from last month with lower soybean, cottonseed, peanut, and sunflowerseed
production partly offset by higher canola production. Soybean production is forecast at 4.6
billion bushels, down 4 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.3 million
acres. The soybean yield is projected at 53.1 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from the
September forecast. With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks,
supplies are lowered 2.0 million bushels to 4.9 billion. With a slightly lower residual and no
change to exports and crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 550 million
bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is unchanged at $10.80 per bushel.
Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42 cents per
pound, respectively.
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Foreign 2024/25 oilseed production is increased 0.2 million tons to 552.9 million mainly on
higher sunflowerseed and cottonseed partly offset by lower rapeseed and soybean
production. Sunflowerseed production is raised for Argentina and Moldova mainly on higher
area. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU, Moldova, and Ukraine on lower area and
harvest results. Soybean production is lowered for Ukraine on harvest results. Another
notable revision is lower palm oil production for Indonesia for 2022/23 and 2023/24, guided
by domestic estimates and lower-than-expected reported exports to date.
Global 2024/25 soybean exports are lowered 0.1 million tons to 181.5 million with lower
exports for Ukraine. Soybean imports and crush are lowered for Thailand. Global soybean
ending stocks are up 0.1 million to 134.6 million with higher stocks for China, Argentina, and
Brazil mostly offset by lower stocks for Ukraine, Turkey, and Iran.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is decreased by 47,192 short tons, raw value
(STRV) to 14.894 million on production decreases only partially offset by an increase in
imports. Beet sugar production is decreased by 41,743 STRV to 5.117 million on lower
August and September production. Cane processors in Louisiana estimate their September
production down by 26,078 STRV due to weather-related delays associated with Hurricane
Francine. Net imports are up 20,629 STRV as increased high-tier tariff raw imports are only
partially offset by lower TRQ entries and re-export imports. High-tier tariff raw sugar imports
for the year are estimated at 886,539 STRV (up 62,159); high-tier refined at 289,483 STRV
(same as last month); and sugar from imported molasses at 56,161 STRV (same as last
month). Use is unchanged and ending stocks are at 2.231 million STRV for an ending stocksto-use ratio of 17.6 percent.
USDA/NASS in the October Crop Production increased national sugarbeet yield to 33.1
tons/acre. Sugarbeet production increases by 185,000 tons to 35.573 million. For 2024/25
net beet sugar production is up 36,283 STRV on increased sugarbeet production and on
revisions made to August and September production for both 2024 and 2025. Although
Louisiana production formerly expected in September is now expected to be produced after
October 1, a downward adjustment to sugar expected in September 2025 based on recent
historical data was made that more than offsets the increase. TRQ imports amounting to
10,100 STRV from Free Trade Agreements for sugar that did not enter as expected in the
calendar third quarter are now expected to enter in the fourth quarter. High-tier/Other sugar is
increased by 28,035 STRV on raw sugar that entered the United States in early October. Use
is unchanged and ending stocks at 1.788 million STRV are up 11,746 over last month.
For 2023/24 Mexico supply has an increase in imports for consumption of 38,000 metric tons
(MT) that is carried over to 2024/25 in beginning stocks. IMMEX deliveries for 2024/25 are
decreased by 23,000 MT to 402,000 based on projections from the FAS Post in Mexico City.
Ending stocks for 2024/25 are up by a small 4,828 MT and residually projected exports at
931,966 MT are up 64,961. Exports under license to the United States are unchanged from
last month at 338,023 MT.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry
production is raised from last month, as higher beef production more than offsets lower pork,
broiler, and turkey production. Beef production is raised on higher cattle slaughter, and
heavier dressed weights for the third and fourth quarters. Pork production is lowered on a
slower pace of slaughter and lower dressed weights. Broiler production for the third quarter
is reduced based on recent slaughter data. This more than offsets a higher fourth quarter
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forecast due to recent hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered based on recent
production and hatchery data. Total egg production is lowered on recent production data and
a slower-than-previously-expected growth rate in the laying flock. The forecast for 2025 red
meat and poultry production is raised on higher beef, pork, and broiler production. Beef
production is raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter, particularly in the first half of the
year, and heavier weights. Pork production is raised as the pig crop and farrowing intentions
estimates in the September 26 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report pointed to larger hog
supplies, particularly in the first half of 2025, which will translate to increased pork production
during the year. Broiler production is raised due to a higher price outlook. Turkey production
is lowered as the reduced price outlook in 2024 and 2025 is expected to dampen the rate of
recovery. Total egg production is unchanged.
Beef import forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are raised on continued strength in demand and
availability of supplies from Oceania and South America. Beef exports are lowered for 2024
on recent trade data. There are no changes to the 2025 beef export forecast. The pork
export forecast is lowered for 2024 on recent trade data, but the 2025 export forecast is
raised on higher U.S. supplies and improved international demand, particularly in the second
half of the year. The broiler export forecast is lowered for 2024 on recent trade data and
weaker competitiveness relative to other major exporters. The broiler export forecast for
2025 is also lowered, as increased competition from other major exporters is expected to
carry into 2025. The turkey export forecast is lowered for 2024 on recent trade data, but the
forecast is unchanged for 2025.
Cattle prices for 2024 are raised in the third and fourth quarters on reported data for
September and continued strong demand for cattle through the end of the year. The price
strength is carried into the first quarter of 2025. The hog price forecasts for 2024 and the first
half of 2025 are raised on reported data through the end of the third quarter and expected
demand strength. The broiler price forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are raised on recent price
data and expected demand strength. The turkey price forecast is virtually unchanged for
2024, with a higher third-quarter price based on reported data offset by a lower fourth quarter
price as demand is expected to remain relatively weak. The price forecast for 2025 is also
lowered.
The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered from last month on slightly less growth in
milk per cow. The milk production forecast for 2025 is also reduced on slower growth in milk
per cow.
The fat basis import forecast for 2024 is raised on higher expected imports of primarily
cheese and butter. Fat basis imports for 2025 are raised on higher cheese and butter
imports. Skim-solids imports are unchanged for 2024 but raised for 2025 on higher imports
of cheese and a number of other dairy products. The fat basis export forecast for 2024 is
unchanged, but exports for 2025 are raised on higher butter shipments. The skim-solids
export forecast for 2024 is raised on higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) shipments, but the 2025
forecast is lowered on weaker competitiveness for NDM and whey.
Recent declines in butter and cheese prices are reflected in lower 2024 and 2025 price
forecasts. NDM and whey prices are raised for both years on recent price strength and
expected demand strength. The Class III price forecasts are lowered for both 2024 and
2025, as price declines in cheese more than offset higher whey prices. The Class IV price
forecasts are also lower than the previous month for both 2024 and 2025, with lower butter
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prices partially offset by higher NDM prices. The all milk price forecast for 2024 is lowered to
$22.80 per cwt and the 2025 forecast is lowered to $22.75 per cwt.
COTTON: Compared to last month, the U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower
production, mill use, and exports. NASS reduced the estimate of U.S. all-cotton production
by slightly over 300,000 bales to 14.2 million in its October Crop Production report, primarily
reflecting the damage from Hurricane Helene. Georgia and North Carolina accounted for
much of the reduction as high winds and heavy rain pummeled open bolls, while some other
states experienced partially offsetting gains. Overall, the national all-cotton yield estimate is
reduced 18 pounds from last month to 789 pounds per harvested acre. Domestic mill use is
reduced 100,000 bales to 1.8 million due to the latest reported mill activity. Reflecting weaker
global import demand and lower production for 2024/25, U.S. exports are reduced 300,000
bales to 11.5 million. Ending stocks are raised 100,000 bales to 4.1 million, for a stocks-touse ratio of slightly less than 31 percent. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is
unchanged at 66 cents per pound. There are no revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance
sheet.
In the global cotton balance sheet for 2024/25, world production is raised over 200,000
bales, with increases in China, Brazil, and Argentina more than offsetting reductions in the
United States and Spain. World trade is lowered over 500,000 bales, mainly due to a
reduction in China’s imports. World ending stocks are reduced slightly from last month to
76.3 million bales. There were no significant revisions to the 2023/24 global balance sheet.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committee
