WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, domestic use,
exports, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased wheat production and beginning
stocks. All wheat production is raised 134 million bushels to 2,008 million, on an increase in
harvested area and higher yields. The first 2024 survey-based production forecasts for other
spring wheat and Durum indicated an increase from last year for both classes at 578 million and
89 million bushels, respectively. Winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1,341 million
bushels on an increase in harvested area and yields. Beginning stocks are raised on the June 1
stocks reported in NASS Grain Stocks. Imports are lowered 15 million bushels to 105 million.
Feed and residual use is increased 10 million bushels to 110 million on larger supplies. With
larger supplies, exports are raised 25 million bushels to 825 million. Projected 2024/25 ending
stocks are raised 98 million bushels to 856 million, up 22 percent from last year and the highest
in five years. The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price is reduced $0.80 per bushel to
$5.70 on higher stocks, recent declines in futures and cash prices, and lower projected U.S. corn
prices.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks.
Supplies are increased 6.9 million tons to 1,057.2 million, primarily on larger beginning stocks for
several countries and higher production, mainly for the United States, Pakistan, and Canada.
Pakistan’s production forecast is raised 1.4 million tons to a record 31.4 million, based on
government estimates indicating a large yield. Canada’s production is increased 1.0 million tons
to 35.0 million on improved moisture conditions in the Prairie Provinces. Global consumption is
raised 1.9 million tons to 799.9 million on higher food, seed, and industrial use and feed and
residual use for several countries. World trade is virtually unchanged at 212.9 million tons as
higher exports for the United States, Canada, and Pakistan are nearly offset by reductions for the
EU, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 5.0 million tons
to 257.2 million, mostly on increases for the United States, China, Argentina, Pakistan, and
Canada more than offsetting reductions for Russia, the EU, and Iran.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater
domestic use and exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered
145 million bushels, mostly reflecting a greater use forecast for 2023/24. Exports are raised 75
million bushels based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date. Feed and residual use
is up 75 million bushels based on indicated disappearance in the June Grain Stocks report. Corn
production for 2024/25 is forecast up 240 million bushels on greater planted and harvested area
from the June Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre. Total use is
raised 100 million bushels with increases to both feed and residual use and exports based on
larger supplies and lower expected prices. With use rising slightly more than supply, ending
stocks are down 5 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is
lowered 10 cents to $4.30 per bushel.
Oats production is forecast up 15 million bushels reflecting higher area in the Acreage report and
an increase in yield to a record 70.9 bushels per acre in today’s Crop Production report. Barley
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production is lowered 11 million bushels on fractionally lower area in the Acreage report and a
cut in yield to 74.2 bushels per acre in today’s Crop Production report. Sorghum production is
reduced 15 million bushels based on the lower area reported in the Acreage report.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.2 million tons higher to 1.512 billion.
This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and use, and larger
stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is reduced based on declines for the EU,
Canada, and Russia. Canada is down based on lower area. For the EU and Russia, extreme
early-season heat in southeastern Europe and the Southern and North Caucasus districts of
Russia reduce yield prospects. For 2023/24, corn production is lowered for Argentina, Pakistan,
Mexico, and the Philippines. Foreign barley production for 2024/25 is down with cuts for Canada,
the EU, and Russia.
Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include larger corn exports for the United States with
reductions for Russia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Canada and Mexico but lowered
for Iran and Bangladesh. For 2023/24 corn exports are raised for Ukraine and the United States
but lowered for Argentina, Pakistan, and India. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2024/25 are
higher, with increases for Pakistan, Mexico, and Turkey partly offset by a decline for Ukraine.
Global corn stocks, at 311.6 million tons, are up 0.9 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. rice this month is for increased supplies, unchanged
domestic use, and larger exports and ending stocks. All rice supplies are raised 2.5 million cwt to
307.0 million on increased production and imports. All rice production is projected up slightly at
221.7 million cwt, on higher harvested area indicated in the NASS Acreage report issued June
28. The all rice yield is increased to 7,645 pounds per acre, up 10 pounds from last month, with
the relatively higher yielding medium- and short-grain rice accounting for a larger share of total
harvested area than previously forecast. Total imports are forecast up 1.0 million cwt to a record
45.5 million as current historically large imports of Asian aromatic long-grain rice are forecast to
continue, primarily from Thailand. Total exports are projected higher at 101.0 million cwt on larger
supplies. All rice endings stocks for 2024/25 are projected higher at 46.0 million cwt, up 16
percent from the prior year. No changes were made to the 2024/25 season-average farm prices.
The 2024/25 global rice outlook is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks. World
supplies are increased by 0.9 million tons to 705.4 million, mostly on a record production forecast
for Pakistan where yields are boosted based on good planting conditions and water availability.
Global 2024/25 rice consumption and residual use is projected at a record 527.3 million tons, up
0.8 million from last month, with increases for Pakistan and the Philippines. World trade is
projected at 54.6 million tons, up 0.7 million mostly on higher exports from Pakistan. Projected
2024/25 world ending stocks are 178.1 million tons, up only slightly this month.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is projected at 131.5 million tons, up 0.3 million
from last month, with increases for rapeseed, peanuts, and cottonseed partly offset by reductions
for soybeans and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 15
million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 85.3 million acres in the June
Acreage report, is down 0.3 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at
52.0 bushels per acre. With slightly lower beginning stocks, reduced production, and unchanged
use, ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 435 million bushels, down 20 million from last
month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast at $11.10 per bushel, down
$0.10 from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged, at $330 per short ton and 42
cents per pound, respectively.
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Foreign oilseed production for 2024/25 is reduced slightly on lower sunflowerseed output mostly
offset by higher rapeseed. Sunflowerseed production is reduced on lower yield prospects for
Russia and Ukraine due to hot and dry weather conditions early in the season. Foreign rapeseed
production is increased for Canada and the EU. Foreign soybean production is unchanged with
higher production for Canada offset by lower production for Russia.
Global soybean beginning stocks for 2024/25 are increased slightly, with higher stocks for China
mainly offset by lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay due to revisions for 2023/24.
Argentina’s soybean production for 2023/24 is revised down 0.5 million tons to 49.5 million
guided by data from Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. China’s soybean
imports for 2023/24 are revised up 3.0 million tons to 108.0 million on larger-than-anticipated
arrivals expected in the fourth quarter of the marketing year. Exports for Argentina, Brazil,
Paraguay, Benin, and Canada are also raised for 2023/24.
With slightly higher beginning stocks, lower global production, and relatively small changes to
use in 2024/25, global soybean stocks are reduced 0.1 million tons to 127.8 million on lower
stocks for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, the EU, and the United States, mostly offset by
higher stocks for China.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased 304,831 short tons, raw value (STRV) to
14.682 million on increases in production and imports. With the end of beet slicing in all regions
except California, USDA has adopted beet processor estimates of production from slice at 4.882
million STRV. With a small reduction in beet sugar from desugared molasses, beet production for
the fiscal year is estimated at 5.179 million STRV, an increase of 133,781. Cane sugar
production in Florida is increased by 5,791 STRV on processors’ SMD reporting. Imports are
increased by 165,259 STRV to 3.619 million. High-tier tariff imports are increased 115,000 STRV
on the strong pace through early July. Raw high-tier for the year is estimated at 700,000 STRV
and refined is at 270,000 STRV. Sugar from imported molasses used as refiners’ melt input is
estimated at 58,899 STRV, up 11,753, mostly on a revision of a technical conversion factor.
Imports from Mexico are increased 38,506 STRV, as a proportion of early season imports were
from 2022/23 production in Mexico. Sugar use is increased 42,912 STRV on the strong pace of
exports to Mexico. Residually estimated ending stocks increase to 1.986 million STRV implying
an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.6 percent.
U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is increased 249,972 STRV on a combined increase in beginning
stocks and beet sugar production more than offsetting a reduction in imports. Beet sugar
production is projected at 5.236 million STRV. This is a 124,816-STRV increase due to an
increase in area harvested relative to June, an increase in national yield from early planting, and
an increase in sugar from desugared molasses due to expansion of capacity. Program imports
are increased 231,485 STRV due to the announced setting of the additional specialty TRQ. Hightier/other imports are increased 38,753 STRV to 301,899. High-tier tariff imports are at 243,000
STRV and sugar from imported molasses is at 58,899 STRV. These increases in imports are
more than offset by a reduction in imports from Mexico under provisions of the CVD Suspension
Agreement based on U.S. Sugar Needs. There are no changes in use. Ending stocks are
projected at 1.695 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.50 percent.
Mexico sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased by larger imports only marginally reduced by a
small decrease in production from last month. Imports for consumption are increased by 114,000
metric tons (MT) on strong entries occurring in May, and imports for IMMEX are increased 36,700
MT due to expected shipments into the program from the United States for the rest of the year.
As was assumed last month, ending stocks are expected to be carried over to 2024/25 given
poor production expected in 2024/25 relative to the recent period before 2023/24.
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Mexico exports for 2024/25 are reduced from last month to 708,420 MT on a large decrease of
exports into the U.S. market resulting from the terms of the CVD Suspension Agreement. With
some small exports to other countries, the decrease in exports to the United States of 348,325
MT obviates the need for imports in 2024/25 except for 25,000 MT imported for IMMEX.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast
for 2024 is lowered slightly from last month with lower forecast broiler and turkey production
more than offsetting higher beef and pork. Pork production is raised this month based on
increased weights for the second half of the year. Beef production is raised with higher expected
steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting reduced cow slaughter. Broiler production is
lowered on slaughter data for the second quarter. Turkey production is lowered due to reduced
expectations for the second half of the year based on recent production and hatchery data. The
egg production forecast is unchanged with offsetting changes to table and hatching eggs. For
2025, beef production is raised on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially offset by
lower cow slaughter. Pork production is raised reflecting stated producers’ farrowing intentions
for the second half of 2024 reported in the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and expectations
of modest growth in the first-half 2025 pig crop. Broiler production is lowered based on a slower
rate of growth in first-quarter production. Turkey production is lowered as expected weaker
producer returns for the remainder of 2024 slow growth in 2025. Egg production is unchanged.
Beef imports for 2024 are reduced on expected global competition. Beef exports are raised on
stronger-than-expected demand in a number of key markets. There are no changes to beef trade
forecasts for 2025. Pork exports are lowered for 2024 based on recent trade data. The pork
export forecast for 2025 is unchanged. The 2024 broiler export forecast is raised slightly,
reflecting recent trade data. No changes are made to broiler exports in 2025. The turkey export
forecast for 2024 is lowered on recent trade data. Turkey exports for 2025 are raised on
expected improved demand.
For 2024, cattle prices are raised on recent price data and expectations that demand for fed
cattle will remain firm. This price strength is expected to carry into 2025, with raised price
forecasts. Hog price forecasts in 2024 are lowered based on recent price data. Lower prices for
hogs are carried into 2025. Broiler price forecasts are lowered slightly for 2024 based on recent
price data; the forecast for 2025 is unchanged. Turkey price forecasts for 2024 are lowered
based on recent data; Turkey price forecasts for 2025 are raised however, based on the
expectation of tighter supplies.
The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered from last month, based on slower growth in milk
per cow more than offsetting higher cow numbers. The milk production forecast for 2025 is also
reduced from last month, as slower growth in milk per cow more than offsets a larger cow
inventory.
For 2024, commercial exports are raised on a fat basis but lowered on a skim-solids basis. The
higher fat basis exports primarily reflect increased butter and cheese shipments. The reduction in
skim-solids basis exports reflects lower nonfat dry milk (NDM) and lactose. For 2025, commercial
exports are reduced on both a fat basis and a skim-solids basis. For 2024, fat basis imports are
raised based on higher expected imports of butter and butterfat products. On a skim-solids basis,
imports are lowered on a number of products. For 2025, imports are unchanged on a fat basis
but reduced on a skim-solids basis.
For 2024, prices of cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are raised from the previous month’s forecast
based on recent price strength and an expectation of tighter milk supplies. The Class III and
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Class IV price forecasts are raised on the higher dairy product prices. The all milk price forecast
is raised to $22.25 per cwt.
With tighter milk supplies, the stronger prices forecast for 2024 are expected to carry over into
2025. Butter, cheese, NDM, and whey prices are all increased from last month’s forecast. The
Class III and Class IV milk prices are raised based on higher product prices. The all milk price
forecast is raised to $22.50 per cwt.
COTTON: The July U.S. cotton projections for 2024/25 show higher acreage, production, and
beginning and ending stocks compared to last month. Projected domestic use and exports are
unchanged. U.S. planted area is 1 million acres higher, as indicated in the June Acreage report,
leading to a 1-million-bale increase in the crop projection to 17.0 million bales. Ending stocks are
1.2 million bales higher at 5.3 million, or 36 percent of use, primarily due to the larger projected
crop. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is reduced 2 cents from the June forecast
to 68 cents per pound. Revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet include a 200,000-
bale reduction in exports to 11.6 million based on the slowing pace of export shipments and a
corresponding 200,000-bale increase in ending stocks.
For the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, production and consumption are increased, while
beginning stocks and world trade are reduced. Beginning stocks are 1.7 million bales lower
compared to June with India accounting for a large portion of the reduction. The forecast for
global production is raised 1.1 million bales to 120.2 million, largely due to higher forecasted
production for the United States. Consumption is 250,000 bales higher with increases in India
and Malaysia offsetting reductions elsewhere. As a result, world ending stocks are reduced
860,000 bales from June to 82.6 million. Revisions to the 2023/24 world balance sheet include
lower beginning stocks and higher consumption, resulting in a 1.7-million-bale reduction in
ending stocks.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committees.
