WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged
domestic use, increased exports, and lower stocks. Supplies are raised as all wheat
production is forecast at 1,875 million bushels, up 17 million from last month on higher Hard
Red Winter production more than offsetting reductions in Soft Red Winter and White Winter.
The all wheat yield is 49.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from last month. The export
forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 800 million, as U.S. wheat prices are expected to be
increasingly competitive with reduced exportable Black Sea supplies. Ending stocks are
lowered slightly to 758 million bushels but still significantly higher than the previous year. The
2024/25 season-average farm price is raised $0.50 per bushel to $6.50 on higher expected
futures and cash prices and tightening global wheat supplies.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for smaller supplies, consumption, trade, and ending
stocks. Supplies are projected to decrease 5.7 million tons to 1,050.3 million, as significant
reductions in production for Russia, Ukraine, and the EU are only partly offset by larger
global beginning stocks. Production for Russia is lowered 5.0 million tons to 83.0 million, all
for winter wheat, as hot and dry weather lowered yield prospects following May frosts. In
Ukraine, production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 19.5 million based on similar hot and dry
weather conditions. The EU forecast is lowered 1.5 million tons to 130.5 million after
prolonged wet weather in France resulted in fewer growing degree days and lowered the
yield potential.
Global consumption is lowered 4.3 million tons to 798.0 million, mainly on lower feed and
residual use in the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. As global supplies tighten and prices increase,
wheat for feed use is becoming less competitive in some countries. World trade is lowered as
well, down 3.2 million tons to 212.8 million, as lower exports from Russia and Ukraine are
only partly offset by increases for the EU and the United States. Projected 2024/25 global
ending stocks are lowered 1.3 million tons to 252.3 million, primarily on reduced stocks in the
EU.
COARSE GRAINS: The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The
season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release
its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and
harvested area.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.4 million tons lower to 1.511 billion.
This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly higher trade, and
smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is marginally higher,
with increases for Ukraine and Zambia partially offset by a reduction for Russia. Corn area is
raised for Ukraine but lowered for Russia. Zambia is higher reflecting increases to both area
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and yield. Foreign barley production is cut, reflecting reductions for the EU, India, Argentina,
Russia, and Ukraine that are partly offset by an increase for Australia.
Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include larger corn exports for Ukraine and Tanzania
but a reduction for Russia. Corn imports are raised for Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique.
For 2023/24, corn exports are raised for South Africa, Russia, the EU, and Uruguay. Barley
exports for 2024/25 are lowered for Argentina, Russia, and the EU but raised for Australia.
Barley imports are raised for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last
month, mostly reflecting reductions for South Africa, Russia, and Tanzania. Global corn
ending stocks, at 310.8 million tons, are down 1.5 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. rice this month is for slightly reduced supplies,
unchanged domestic use and exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced
on lower beginning stocks with 2023/24 exports raised (all long-grain) by 1.0 million cwt to
95.0 million cwt. U.S. rice exports continue to be competitive in the Western Hemisphere
despite the recent harvests of South American exporters. With no changes to 2024/25
domestic use and exports, all of the reduction in supplies lowers ending stocks by an
equivalent amount to 44.5 million cwt, still up 12 percent from last year. The 2024/25 seasonaverage price for all rice is unchanged at $15.60 per cwt with prices by all classes also
unchanged.
The 2024/25 global outlook this month is for larger supplies, slightly higher consumption and
trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised 1.9 million tons to 704.4 million,
primarily on higher beginning stocks for India as its 2023/24 crop size is raised on the
government’s Third Advanced Estimates. World 2024/25 consumption is fractionally higher at
526.4 million tons on increases for Kenya and the Philippines more than offsetting a
reduction for Pakistan. Global 2024/25 trade is raised 0.1 million tons to 53.9 million on
higher exports for Pakistan. Projected world ending stocks are raised 1.9 million tons to
178.0 million, primarily on increases for India and the Philippines more than offsetting
reductions for Pakistan and Vietnam.
OILSEEDS: The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending
stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced crush for 2023/24, down 10 million bushels
on lower soybean meal domestic use that is partly offset by higher exports. Soybean oil
domestic use is also lowered for 2023/24 and partly offset by higher exports. With increased
supplies for 2024/25 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 455
million bushels, up 10 million. The soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel, unchanged
from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged, at $330 per short ton and
42 cents per pound, respectively.
Global oilseed production for 2024/25 is lowered 1.3 million tons to 685.8 million mainly on
lower rapeseed production for Australia and the European Union. Rapeseed production is
lowered for Australia on lower harvested area while production in the EU is lowered on a
reduced yield for France.
The 2024/25 global soybean outlook includes lower beginning and ending stocks. Higher
beginning stocks for the U.S. are offset by lower stocks for Brazil and Paraguay. Brazil’s
stocks are lowered on a downward revision to 2023/24 production, down 1.0 million to 153.0
million, reflecting further in-country assessments of flooding in Rio Grande do Sul by Brazil’s
state agency Emater. Paraguay’s 2024/25 beginning stocks are lowered on higher exports for
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the prior marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 127.9
million.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is decreased 34,257 short tons, raw value (STRV) to
14.377 million on lower production partially offset by an increase in imports. Beet sugar
production is decreased 50,040 STRV mainly on lower sugar from desugared molasses
forecast by processers and also on slightly higher beet pile shrink and slightly lower recovery.
Imports from Mexico are reduced 31,434 STRV on a reduction in Mexico production of below
99.2 polarity sugar. More than offsetting is an increase in high tier tariff/Other sugar. High-tier
raw and refined sugar are on pace to meet the combined total of 855,000 STRV estimated in
the WASDE. The “Other” component is the raw sugar equivalent of refiners molasses
imported by SMD cane sugar reporters as an input in the production of refined cane sugar.
The molasses is reported by the U.S. Census under the HTS 1703.10.3000 and is consistent
with Additional U.S. Note 10 that distinguishes it as molasses distinct from sugar.
USDA/WAOB estimates the raw sugar-equivalent quantity of product used in refiners’ melt
operations at a monthly average of 3,929 STRV. Extending this monthly average for the
remaining 5 months of 2023/24 and the 12 months of 2024/25 increases High Tier/Other by
47,146 STRV over last month in both years. This inclusion in the supply balance leads to a
correct calculation of the Direct Consumption Imports, a component of deliveries for human
consumption in Use.
U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is decreased by 18,959 STRV as lower beginning stocks and
reduced production more than offset an increase in imports. U.S. cane sugar production in
Florida for 2024/25 is decreased 31,848 STRV to 2.004 million on processers’ forecasts in
the SMD. Use is unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are projected at 1.445 million
STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.51 percent.
Mexico production for 2023/24 is estimated at 4.718 million metric tons (MT), an increase of
69,067 over last month. While sugarcane yield at 62.50 MT/hectare and recovery at 10.20
percent are very close to estimates from last month, late season production is picking up on
increases in area harvested to a total of around 740,000 hectares. The low polarity sugar
share of total production continues its downward trend and is now estimated at 6.00 percent,
down from 6.5 percent last month. Assuming that all projected low polarity sugar is exported
to the U.S. market and constitutes 71 percent of the total exported, exports to the United
States are projected at 398,704 MT. Imports for consumption are increased 21,000 MT to
496,000 on estimates made by CONADESUCA through the end of April. Given that USDA
expects Mexico to import significantly high levels of high-tier tariff sugar to compensate for
relatively low production of 5.189 million MT in 2024/25, Mexico is estimated to carry stocks
over from 2023/24 to reduce imports by 182,159 MT in 2024/25 to 342,655. Following
CONADESUCA’s lead, ending stocks in 2024/25 are increased by 78,277 MT to 978,457 to
cover Use in 2025/26 for 2.5 months before the start of that year’s sugar campaign, up from
2.3 months last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The total U.S. red meat and poultry production
forecast for 2024 is raised from last month. Beef production is virtually unchanged for the
year with largely offsetting changes in the quarters as lower expected slaughter is largely
offset by higher dressed weights. Pork production is raised for the second quarter on a more
rapid pace of slaughter and slightly higher dressed weights. No changes were made to the
outlying quarters; the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on June 27, will provide
indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early
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2025. Broiler production is raised on higher bird weights and recent hatchery data. Turkey
production is raised on recent hatchery data. The egg production forecast is lowered based
on recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial laying
flocks. For 2025, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher expected
beef production. The beef production forecast is raised on higher expected placements in the
fourth quarter of 2024 and faster expected pace of marketings during the first half. In
addition, dressed weights are expected to remain relatively high into 2025.
No changes are made to beef trade for 2024 or 2025. Pork exports are raised for 2024 on
recent demand strength. Broiler export forecasts are lowered for 2024 and 2025 based on
recent trade data and expectations of relatively uncompetitive prices vis-à-vis other
exporters. Turkey exports are raised slightly for 2024 based on recent trade data.
The 2024 cattle price forecast is raised from last month on recent prices. Hog prices for the
second and third quarter are lowered from last month on observed prices. Broiler prices are
raised on expected demand strength. Turkey prices are raised on slightly improved demand.
Egg prices are raised based on the most recent prices and lowered production forecasts. For
2025, strength in cattle prices is carried forward into the first quarter of 2025. Higher egg
prices from 2024 are also expected to carry into the first half of 2025. No changes are made
to 2025 price forecasts for hogs, broilers, or turkeys.
Milk production forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 are unchanged from last month with slight
adjustments to cow inventories offset by slower growth in milk per cow.
For 2024 commercial exports are raised on a fat basis, largely due to higher expected
shipments of cheese. Skim-solids basis exports are unchanged. For 2025, exports are raised
on a fat basis and a skim-solids basis based on expectations of continued strong
international demand. Imports for 2024 are raised for both a fat and skim-solids basis,
supported by higher expected butter and milk protein containing products, respectively.
Import forecasts for 2025 are raised as well.
For 2024, butter, cheese, whey, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are raised from
the previous month on recent price strength. With the changes in product prices, Class III
and Class IV prices are raised. The all-milk price forecast is raised to $21.60 per cwt. Strong
demand for dairy products is expected to carry into 2025 and prices are raised for butter,
cheese, and whey. The forecast for NDM is unchanged. As a result of higher product prices,
Class III and Class IV price forecasts are also raised. The 2025 all milk price forecast is
$21.50 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2024/25 U.S. cotton projections show higher beginning and ending stocks
compared to last month. Projected production, domestic use and exports are unchanged.
The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is down 4 cents from the May forecast to 70
cents per pound following a decline in new-crop cotton futures. Ending stocks are 400,000
bales higher at 4.1 million, or 28 percent of use. Revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton
balance sheet include a 500,000-bale reduction in exports to 11.8 million based on the
slowing pace of export shipments, a 50,000-bale increase in domestic use, and a 450,000-
bale gain in ending stocks.
In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption
are increased, with world trade unchanged. As a result, world ending stocks are projected
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480,000 bales higher than in May at 83.5 million. The forecast for production is raised 90,000
bales based solely on higher area and yield in Burma. Consumption is 80,000 bales higher
with increases in Vietnam and Burma offsetting reductions elsewhere. Revisions to the
2023/24 world balance sheet include higher beginning stocks and production, with reduced
trade and consumption, raising ending stocks approximately 500,000 bales.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
JASON HAFEMEISTER
