WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, decreased
domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased
imports, up 10 million bushels to 145 million, on a strong pace to date and expectations for the
rest of the marketing year. Total domestic use is projected 4 million bushels lower to 1,155
million, all on a reduction in food use following the release of the latest NASS Flour Milling
Products report. July-September wheat used in milling is the smallest for this quarter since at
least 2014 when NASS began reporting this series. With no other changes to the U.S. balance
sheet, projected ending stocks are raised 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected
2023/24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20 on lower expected
prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for increased supplies, fractionally lower consumption,
less trade, and larger ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 0.6 million tons to 1,051.5 million
as increased beginning stocks more than offset a decline in global production. World production
is lowered 1.5 million tons to 782.0 million on decreases to many countries including India,
Argentina, Kazakhstan, the United Kingdom, and Brazil. The decrease for production in India is
based on revised government estimates. In Argentina, production is forecast 1.5 million tons
lower to 15.0 million as rains in October were too late to benefit the crop in Cordoba and Santa
Fe. These production declines are partially offset by a 5.0-million-ton increase in the forecast for
Russia, up to 90.0 million, based on near-final harvest data from the Ministry of Agriculture that
indicates more harvested area and higher yields. The global forecast for trade is lowered 1.3
million tons to 205.0 million, primarily on lower exports from Argentina, India, and Egypt that are
only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. Projected global ending stocks are raised 0.6 million
tons to 258.7 million, with larger forecasts for Russia, China, and Argentina more than offsetting
declines for India, Ukraine, and Brazil.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, domestic
use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170
million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre. With larger
supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for
ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion. Exports are raised 50 million bushels to 2.1
billion. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2
billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per
bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast up 4.8 million tons to 1,499.3 million. This
month’s 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending stocks
relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Ukraine,
Russia, Burma, and Paraguay are partly offset by declines for Mexico, Egypt, and Indonesia.
Corn production for Ukraine and Russia is raised based on harvest results to date. Mexico
production is lowered reflecting a reported decline in summer corn area. Foreign barley
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production is raised as higher production for Russia, Ukraine, and India are partly offset by
reductions for Argentina, the EU, and Turkey.
Major global trade changes include larger corn exports for the United States, Russia, Turkey,
Ukraine, and Paraguay. Corn imports are raised for Canada, Egypt, Mexico, the EU, and Saudi
Arabia but lowered for Iran and Bangladesh. Barley exports are raised for Ukraine but lowered
for Argentina. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine,
Paraguay, and China that are partly offset by a decline for Iran. Global corn ending stocks, at
315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. rice this month is for slightly lower supplies, unchanged
exports and domestic use, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are fractionally lower on
reduced production as the NASS November Crop Production report lowered 2023/24 all rice
production 845,000 cwt to 219.7 million cwt, all on lower yields. The average all rice yield is down
30 pounds per acre to 7,707 pounds. All rice ending stocks are reduced 845,000 cwt to 40.9
million cwt but are still up 35 percent from last year. The season-average farm price for all rice is
raised $0.50 per cwt to $17.30, on higher long-grain and other (southern) medium- and shortgrain price forecasts.
The 2023/24 global rice outlook this month is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and nearly
unchanged stocks. World supplies are raised 1.6 million tons to 692.6 million, mostly on higher
beginning stocks for India. The country’s beginning stocks are raised based on a 1.5-million-ton
reduction in 2022/23 consumption as implied by the latest government stocks report. India’s
beginning stocks are also increased on reduced 2022/23 exports, which have slowed since the
imposition of its export ban for non-parboiled white milled rice. Global 2023/24 rice consumption
is increased 1.6 million tons to a record 525.2 million on higher projected consumption for India
as the government extends its food assistance programs. World trade is projected at 52.7 million
tons, up 0.4 million mostly on higher exports by Brazil. Projected 2023/24 world ending stocks
are 167.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month and remaining at a 6-year low.
OILSEEDS: The U.S. soybean outlook for 2023/24 includes increased production and ending
stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, up 25 million on higher yields. The
largest production changes are for Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota, and
Ohio. With crush and exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised to 245 million
bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel,
unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price is reduced 2.0 cents to 61.0 cents per pound.
The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380.00 per short ton.
The global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks,
higher production, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced 1.6
million tons, reflecting offsetting back-year balance sheet revisions for China and Brazil. China’s
beginning stocks are reduced on lower soybean imports for 2021/22 and 2022/23 and higher
crush for 2022/23. Conversely, Brazil’s beginning stocks are increased on a larger 2022/23 crop
of 158 million tons due to higher-than-expected use to date.
Global 2023/24 soybean production is raised 0.9 million tons to 400.4 million, mainly on higher
production for Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Global soybean crush is raised on higher
crush for China and Russia. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.1 million tons as higher
stocks for Brazil and the United States are more than offset by lower stocks for China.
SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is reduced by 245,000 metric tons (MT) to 5.330 million.
Mexico is currently experiencing widespread drought conditions. Growing areas most severely
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affected are in the western Pacific region and in San Luis Potosi. Other states like Veracruz and
Quintana Roo (important regions for the production of low polarity sugar) are not as severely
affected. State-weighted April-October rainfall data indicate rainfall in cane growing regions is
about 23 percent below normal. This level is lower than, but comparable to the situation in 2019,
the next lowest annual level. The effects on yields vary depending on irrigation but will be lower
overall. Many factors besides rainfall enter into yield forecasting. USDA analysis suggests a
national sugar yield of 61.3 MT/hectare, lower than the 62.9 in 2019 but higher than the 59.0 last
year when fertilizer use was at a record low due to extremely high prices. With extremely high
sugar prices, area harvested should remain at about 800,000 hectares. Sucrose recovery should
be about 10.9 percent.
Lower 2023/24 production implies changes in other components of Mexico supply and use.
Deliveries into the IMMEX program are decreased by 50,000 MT to 400,000, a level similar to
last year when production was at its low 5.224 million MT level. The production of low polarity
sugar for export to the U.S. market should be around the 70 percent of U.S. Needs as
determined by the DOC in September. Similar to last year, low polarity sugar is assumed to be
about 75 percent of total exports to the United States, implying total exports at 1.051 million MT
(1.026 million for the United States and 25,000 to other destinations). Ending stocks are set at
the level to meet delivery requirements into the beginning 2.5 months of 2024/25 before the start
of the new campaign. Imports as the residual increase by 112,465 MT to 433,539. (Imports lower
than this amount would require lower ending stocks than projected but would imply more imports
in 2024/25 to meet delivery requirements.)
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased by 12,345 short tons, raw value (STRV) on lower
beginning stocks and imports offset by greater production. TRQ raw sugar imports are down
160,573 STRV due to the Philippines announcement that all production would be allocated for
domestic uses and none for export. Imports from Mexico are decreased 85,610 STRV on lower
refined sugar slated for the U.S. market as explained above. These decreases are offset by a
100,000 STRV increase in projected high-tier tariff imports to 275,000. Like last month, 175,000
is projected to enter as refined sugar. Raw sugar imports are projected at 100,000 STRV. Prior to
this WASDE high-tier tariff imports were only increased when there were raw sugar entries for
the most recent month. The USDA now recognizes that high-tier tariff raw imports are an
important source to meet raw sugar requirements under current market conditions.
Louisiana cane sugar production for 2023/24 is increased 48,947 STRV to 1.787 million mostly
on a higher sugarcane yield forecast by NASS. Beet sugar production is increased 211,290
STRV to 5.363 million on higher sugarbeet yields forecast by NASS, an increase in recovery
based on processors’ estimates of sucrose content, and adjustments made for early season
production that cross between fiscal years. There are no use changes. Ending stocks are
projected at 1.569 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.39 percent, up 0.1
percentage points from last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production is
lowered from last month with lower beef, pork, broiler, and turkey forecasts. Beef production is
lowered with reduced steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting higher expected cow
slaughter and higher average dressed weights in the fourth quarter. Pork production is lowered
on lighter dressed weights in the fourth quarter. Broiler production is lowered as eggs set and
chicks placed data point towards further production declines in the fourth quarter. Turkey
production is lowered based on current hatchery and slaughter data. Egg production is raised
slightly from last month, as higher third quarter reported data more than offsets a reduced fourth
quarter forecast.
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For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised. Higher expected steer and heifer placements in
the later part of 2023 and first part of 2024 will lead to higher marketings of fed cattle, particularly
in the first half of 2024. In addition, cow and bull slaughter is raised from last month. The pace of
broiler production growth is reduced from last month. Turkey production is lowered as the sector
responds to continued weakness in turkey markets. Egg production is reduced, with reductions in
the first half of the year more than offsetting increases in the second half.
Beef imports for 2023 are raised on recent trade data and stronger expected imports from
Australia in the fourth quarter. For 2024, beef imports are raised based on higher expected
imports from Australia due to tight U.S. beef supplies. Exports for 2023 are raised slightly based
on reported data for the third quarter. Beef export forecasts for 2024 are unchanged. Pork
imports are raised, and exports are lowered for 2023 on observed data, but the forecasts are
unchanged for 2024. Broiler exports forecasts for 2023 are lowered based on recent trade data,
with the lowered outlook carrying over into the 2024 export forecast due to weaker international
demand and tighter domestic supplies. Turkey exports are raised for 2023 on current trade, but
the forecast for 2024 is lowered on lower domestic production.
Cattle price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are unchanged although weaker prices in the first half of
2024 are offset by higher prices later in the year. The 2023 hog price forecast is lowered on
prices to date. Lower hog price forecasts are carried into the first half of 2024. The broiler price
forecast for 2023 is lowered on recent data, but 2024 forecasts are raised with the reduction in
expected production. The turkey price forecast for 2023 is lowered due to weak demand. The
2024 price forecast is also lowered as weak demand carries into the first part of the year. Egg
price forecasts for 2023 are raised on recent prices and strong demand expected ahead of the
holiday season. The price forecast for 2024 is unchanged with stronger prices early in the year
offset by lowered forecasts later.
The milk production forecast for 2023 is reduced from last month as milk cow numbers were
revised lower in the most recent Milk Production report, and the lower estimated numbers are
carried into the fourth quarter forecast. Growth in milk per cow is also slowed in the fourth quarter
with slower-than-expected growth for the third quarter reported in the Milk Production report. The
forecast for 2024 is reduced as the lower forecasts of milk cows and milk per cow for late 2023
are carried into the next year.
Fat basis imports for 2023 are unchanged from last month, as lower-than-expected imports in the
third quarter are largely offset by expectations of higher butter and butter fat imports in the fourth
quarter. Higher expected imports of butter and cheese support a higher fat basis import forecast
for 2024. Skim-solids basis imports are lowered for 2023 reflecting lower imports of milk proteins.
For 2024, the skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged. Exports in 2023 are lowered on a
fat basis with lower expected sales of butter and milkfats, whole milk powder, and whey but
higher lactose shipments are reflected in a higher skim-solids export forecast. For 2024, lowered
expectations of butter sales more than offset stronger cheese exports and the fat basis export
forecast is reduced. However, higher expected nonfat dry milk (NDM) and cheese exports
support a higher skim-solids export forecast.
Recent gains in butter prices have eroded more rapidly than previously expected and the butter
price forecast for 2023 is reduced. Strength in whey demand supports a higher price forecast.
The cheese price is unchanged and the NDM price is raised to reflect current prices. The Class
III price is raised on a higher whey price, but the Class IV price is lowered as a weaker butter
price more than offsets slightly higher NDM. For 2024, the price forecast for butter is reduced as
prices continue to soften from late-2023 levels but cheese, NDM, and whey prices are raised as
lower milk production constrains production of those products. The Class III and Class IV price
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forecasts are raised on higher cheese, whey and NDM prices although the lowered butter price
constrains the level of increase in the Class IV price. The 2023 all milk price forecast is
unchanged from last month at $20.70 per cwt while the 2024 all milk price is raised to $20.80 per
cwt.
COTTON: The 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows slightly lower consumption but higher
production and ending stocks this month. Production is 273,000 bales higher, at 13.1 million
bales, as lower production in Texas is more than offset elsewhere. Domestic mill use is 100,000
bales lower, reflecting the pace of recent consumption, and exports are unchanged, leaving
ending stocks 400,000 bales higher at 3.2 million bales or 22.5 percent of use. The 2023/24
season-average price for upland cotton is reduced 3 cents this month to 77 cents per pound.
This month’s 2023/24 global cotton balance sheet includes lower consumption, but higher
production and stocks. Beginning stocks are 200,000 bales higher largely due to a 300,000-bale
increase in India’s 2022/23 production based on data from their Committee on Cotton Production
and Consumption. The global production forecast for 2023/24 is 850,000 bales higher this month
as larger expected crops in Afghanistan, the United States, Argentina, and Paraguay offset
reductions in Spain and Mexico. Global consumption is 500,000 bales lower, with cuts for
Vietnam, Turkey, and the United States. World trade is little changed from the previous month
despite a 500,000-bale increase in China’s projected imports, as declines for Vietnam, Turkey,
Korea, and Thailand are largely offsetting. At 81.5 million bales, 2023/24 global cotton ending
stocks are projected 1.6 million bales higher than in October. China accounts for nearly one-third
of this increase as higher imports are largely expected to be for the State Reserve.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.