WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and
domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Exports are reduced 15 million
bushels to 710 million with reductions for Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Winter. Ending
stocks are raised by an equivalent amount to 673 million bushels and are 18 percent
higher than last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to
$7.15.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger supplies, consumption, and trade with
reduced stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 0.8 million tons to 1,057.8 million,
primarily on higher government production estimates for Australia, Russia, and Argentina
partially offset by reductions for the EU and Serbia. Global consumption is raised 1.5
million tons to 799.0 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for the EU,
Kazakhstan, and Indonesia. World trade is raised 1.4 million tons to 212.1 million on
higher exports by Ukraine, Australia, and Turkey. Projected 2023/24 global ending stocks
are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million, the lowest since 2015/16.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last
month. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per
bushel based on observed prices to date.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.7 million tons lower to 1,507.4
million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, larger trade,
and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast
lower with declines for South Africa, Ukraine, Mexico, Venezuela, and Russia that are
partly offset by increases for Argentina and Syria. South Africa is down reflecting lower
yield prospects. Mexico is cut based on expectations of lower winter corn area. Ukraine
and Russia are reduced based on reported harvest results to date. Argentina is raised
based on higher expected area. Foreign barley production is down, with reductions for
Iraq and Syria that are partly offset by an increase for Australia.
Major global trade changes include higher corn exports for Ukraine and Argentina but
reductions for South Africa and India. Corn imports are lowered for the EU, Saudi Arabia,
Israel, and South Korea but raised for Mexico, Venezuela, and Indonesia. Barley exports
are raised for Australia. Foreign corn ending stocks are lower, mostly reflecting a decline
for Ukraine that is partly offset by an increase for Brazil. Global corn ending stocks, at
319.6 million tons, are down 2.4 million.

RICE: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. rice this month is for unchanged supplies and
domestic use, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. All rice exports are raised 1.0
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million cwt to 88.0 million with a 3.0 million increase in long-grain and a decline of 2.0
million for medium- and short-grain. Projected ending stocks are reduced 1.0 million cwt
to 41.5 million but are still 37 percent larger than last year. The all rice season-average
farm price is raised this month by $0.40 per cwt to $18.80 on increases for all classes of
rice based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices
for the remainder of 2023/24. The long-grain price is raised $0.10 per cwt to $16.10, the
Other States medium- and short-grain price is raised $0.50 per cwt to $18.00, and the
California medium- and short-grain price is raised $2.00 per cwt to $32.00.
The 2023/24 global outlook this month is for larger supplies, trade, and ending stocks but
fractionally lower consumption. Supplies are raised 2.5 million tons to 692.6 million,
primarily on higher beginning stocks for Pakistan and increased production for India.
Production in India is raised 2.0 million tons to 134.0 million, on additional harvested area
indicated in the Second Advance Estimates of Production of Food Grains report. For
Pakistan, beginning stocks are raised following a revision to the 2022/23 crop, up 1.8
million tons to 7.3 million, as updated official data shows a higher yield than previously
estimated. Global trade for 2023/24 is raised 1.0 million tons to 52.6 million on increases
for several major exporters, including Pakistan, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Projected world ending stocks are forecast 2.5 million tons higher than last month to
169.7 million, most notably for India, Pakistan, and Indonesia, though ending stocks are
still forecast lower than the prior year.

OILSEEDS: The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged this
month. While soybean crush is unchanged, the soybean meal extraction rate is
increased slightly, and higher soybean meal exports are mostly offset by lower domestic
use. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are
unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound.
Global 2023/24 oilseed production is reduced 0.7 million tons to 658.7 million, on lower
soybean and sunflowerseed production partly offset by higher rapeseed. Sunflowerseed
production is reduced on lower output for South Africa. Rapeseed production is
increased on higher output for India, Russia, and Ukraine. Global soybean production is
reduced 1.4 million tons on lower production for Brazil and South Africa.
Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks,
lower production, lower crush, higher exports, and lower ending stocks compared to last
month. Beginning stocks are lowered 1.4 million tons mainly on historical crush and
import revisions for China. Soybean crush for China is raised for 2020/21 to 2022/23
based on a review of in-country estimates and supplies. Soybean imports for China for
2022/23 are also raised to reflect shipping data by major exporters.
Global soybean production for 2023/24 is reduced on lower production for Brazil and
South Africa. Soybean production for Brazil is lowered 1.0 million tons to 155 million on
harvest results in Parana and poor weather conditions in São Paulo offset by favorable
conditions in the north and Rio Grande do Sul. South African soybean production is
lowered 0.4 million to 2.1 million on lower yield prospects. Global crush is reduced for
Brazil and South Africa on lower supplies, and lower for Ukraine on higher soybean
exports. Global soybean exports are raised 3.0 million tons on higher shipments to date
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from Brazil and Ukraine. Soybean imports are raised on higher imports for China, which
are now 0.5 million tons higher than the prior marketing year’s revised estimate. Global
soybean ending stocks are lowered 1.8 million tons to 114.3 million on lower stocks for
Brazil that are partly offset by higher Chinese stocks.

SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.747 million metric tons (MT), a
decrease of 127,518 from last month and also 476,766 lower than last year. The
sugarcane harvest in Mexico continues to lag at levels unprecedented in recent times. All
relevant production parameters (yields and recovery) through March 2 are several
deviations below 10-year averages with no improvement being seen as time advances.
Interim analysis based on the latest CONADESUCA data implies a full-season national
sugarcane yield of 61.9 MT/hectare which is lower than last month and sucrose recovery
of 9.97 percent, also lower than last month and at a record low. Eastern growing regions
less affected by drought, like in the Northeast and Pacific regions, have had unexpectedly
low sucrose recovery levels, likely due to the high cost of fertilizers for a second year in a
row. At this point, harvested area presents the most uncertainty as many fields may not
yield enough sugarcane to be worth harvesting. The pace of harvested area will be
closely monitored each succeeding harvest week.
The production of low polarity sugar for export to the United States is projected at 9.0
percent of total production. Most low polarity sugar is produced in the eastern regions
with low sucrose recovery. Some analysis suggests a switching from the production of
low polarity sugar to estandar sugar that commands a higher price in the domestic
market. Assuming that all projected low polarity sugar is exported to the U.S. market and,
like last year, constitutes 75 percent of the total exported; exports to the United States
are projected at 569,698 MT. Exports to other countries are unchanged at 25,000 MT and
total exports at 594,698 MT are down 114,054 from last month. Deliveries are decreased
by 55,217 MT to 4.593 million on the pace to date and imports are residually projected at
494,098 MT, down 52,440 from last month.
U.S. sugar production for 2023/24 is decreased by 109,050 short tons, raw value (STRV)
on lower beet sugar production only partially offset by increases in cane sugar
production. Beet sugar production is down 155,761 STRV on higher beet pile shrink
mostly due to warmer-than-average temperatures in the Red River Valley and Michigan
and on lower sucrose recovery reported in aggregate by beet processors. Cane sugar
production is projected higher by 46,711 STRV on higher production in Florida mostly
offsetting a small reduction in Texas. USDA increased the raw sugar TRQ by 137,789
STRV citing the authority given to the Secretary of Agriculture under the Additional U.S.
Note 5 of HTS Chapter 17 instead of the more usual legislative authority granted by the
U.S. Congress. This increase is mostly offset by reduced imports from Mexico. There is
no change to high-tier tariff imports: they remain at a record 715,000 STRV. There were
no changes to use. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.701 million for an ending
stocks-to-use ratio of 13.38 percent, down from 14.20 last month.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Historical red meat, poultry, and egg supply and
use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and
production data.
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For 2024, total red meat and poultry production forecasts are raised from last month with
higher beef, pork, and broiler production more than offsetting lower turkey production.
The beef production forecast is raised as lower expected slaughter in the first quarter is
more than offset by higher slaughter for outlying quarters. The pork production forecast
is raised based on a more rapid pace of slaughter in the first quarter, partially offset by
lower weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 28,
providing a further indication of hog supplies for slaughter in the second half of the year.
Broiler production is raised on placement and slaughter data for the first quarter and
expectations that lower feed costs will support higher production later in the year. Turkey
production is lowered for the first half of the year on the most recent production and
hatchery data. Egg production is lowered for the first quarter based on the most recent
hatchery data.
The beef import forecast for 2024 is raised based on recent trade data but exports are
unchanged. Pork exports are raised based on the latest trade data and continued
strength in shipments to several key markets. The broiler export forecast is lowered
based on recent data and expectations of weakness in demand in Asia. Turkey exports
are raised based on the latest trade data. Egg trade forecasts are unchanged.
For 2024, cattle prices are raised for all quarters based on recent prices and firm demand
for fed cattle. Hog prices are raised for the second and third quarters, based on current
demand strength. Broiler prices are unchanged from the previous month. Turkey prices
are raised for the first quarter based on recent data and lower expected production. Egg
prices are lowered for the first quarter based on recent data.
Milk supply and use estimates for 2023 are adjusted to reflect revisions in production and
cold storage data. For 2024, milk production is lowered due to a smaller dairy cow
inventory and slower growth in output per cow.
On a fat basis, the domestic use forecast is unchanged from last month. Fat-basis
imports are raised on higher imports of a number of products. Fat-basis exports are
lowered primarily on lower expected cheese and butter shipments. On a skim-solids
basis, the domestic use forecast is raised. Import forecasts are raised, while exports,
primarily of cheese, nonfat/skim milk powder, and whey, are lowered.
For 2024, the butter price forecast is raised on recent data and strong demand. The
cheese price is also raised on recent price strength. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey
price forecasts are both lowered based on recent prices. Class III prices are projected
higher based on higher cheese prices, while Class IV prices are lower, as the lower NDM
price more than offsets the higher butter price. The all milk price is projected higher at
$21.25 per cwt.

COTTON: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. cotton forecasts show lower production and ending
stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 334,000 bales to 12.1 million, based
on the March 8 Cotton Ginnings report. The final estimates for this season’s U.S. area,
yield, and production will be published in the May 2024 Crop Production report. Ending
stocks are 300,000 bales lower this month at 2.5 million. At 18 percent, stocks as a share
of use are projected their lowest since 2020/21. The projected marketing year average
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price received by upland producers of 77.0 cents per pound is unchanged from last
month.
The global cotton supply and demand estimates for 2023/24 show higher production,
consumption, and trade, but lower ending stocks. World production is 130,000 bales
higher as lower U.S. and Argentine crops are more than offset by a 500,000-bale
increase in India. Global consumption is almost 500,000 bales higher as gains for China
and India more than offset lower estimates for Turkey and a number of smaller countries.
World trade is about 400,000 bales higher as China’s 2023/24 imports are raised 900,000
bales, more than offsetting lower estimates for Turkey and several smaller countries.
Exports are projected higher for India, Australia, and Turkey. Ending stocks are
marginally lower, down 353,000 bales to 83.3 million.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.