World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Office of the
Chief Economist
Agricultural Marketing Service
Farm Service Agency
Economic Research Service
Foreign Agricultural Service

WASDE – 613 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board June 10, 2021

WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, higher
domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower stocks. Supplies are raised as
higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks. All wheat production is
projected at 1,898 million bushels, up 26 million from last month on increased Hard Red
Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offsetting lower White Winter
production. The all wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month.
Beginning stocks declined due to higher 2020/21 exports, which were raised 20 million
bushels to 985 million, primarily on larger recent monthly exports. Feed and residual use
is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to
be priced competitively with corn in the summer months. Projected 2021/22 ending
stocks are lowered 4 million bushels to 770 million, down 10 percent from the revised
2020/21 ending stocks. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is unchanged
at $6.50 per bushel, compared to $5.05 for 2020/21, which is also unchanged this month.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for larger supplies, higher consumption,
increased trade, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 4.3 million tons to
1,087.9 million, mainly on higher production for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine as world
production is projected at a record 794.4 million. The EU is raised 3.5 million tons to
137.5 million on recent beneficial precipitation across Northern and Central Europe. The
largest increases are for Germany, France, and Romania. Russia’s production is raised
1.0 million tons to a record 86.0 million. Winter wheat production is increased on a higher
yield with widespread spring rainfall across Western Russia, while spring wheat is raised
on higher area, based on Agricultural Ministry estimates. Ukraine is increased 0.5 million
tons to a record 29.5 million on continued favorable weather conditions. Projected
2021/22 world consumption is raised 2.4 million tons to a record 791.1 million, primarily
on higher feed and residual use by the EU and Russia on increased supplies. Projected
2021/22 global trade is raised 0.8 million tons to a record 203.2 million, on increased
exports by Ukraine and India. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 1.8
million tons to 296.8 million with China accounting for 48 percent of the total.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning
and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are down 150 million bushels reflecting projected
increases for 2020/21 in corn used for ethanol and exports. Corn used for ethanol is
raised 75 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and
Co-Products Production report, and weekly ethanol production and refiner and blender
net inputs data during May which indicate demand is almost back to levels seen prior to
COVID-19. Exports are raised 75 million bushels, based on export inspection data for
the month of May that implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, despite high WASDE-613-2
prices. With no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are lowered 150 million bushels.
The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.
This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, marginally
higher trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Barley production is raised
for the EU, mostly reflecting forecast increases for Germany and France that are partly
offset by a reduction for Spain. Barley production is also lowered for Turkey. Brazil corn
production for 2020/21 is reduced on lower yield expectations for second-crop corn,
based on below-normal rainfall in the Center-West and South during the month of May.
Partly offsetting is greater indicated area for the second and third crops.
Major global trade changes for 2021/22 include larger forecast barley exports for the EU
with increased imports for China. For 2020/21, Brazil’s corn exports are lowered for the
marketing year beginning March 2021. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are
raised relative to last month, mostly reflecting increases for Pakistan and South Africa
that are partly offset by a reduction for Canada.

RICE: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for smaller supplies, unchanged
domestic use and exports, and reduced ending stocks. All of the 2021/22 changes are
the result of 2020/21 trade revisions. The 2021/22 all rice beginning stocks are reduced
2.0 million cwt to 40.9 million, due to a combination of lower imports and higher exports
for 2020/21. All rice 2020/21 imports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 34.7 million on
reduced volumes from Asia in recent months. All rice 2020/21 exports are raised 1.0
million cwt to 92.0 million, primarily on increased export sales and shipments to
Venezuela. Both of these trade changes are for long-grain. Since there are no other
2021/22 supply changes and no changes to the use categories, 2021/22 projected
ending stocks are reduced by 2.0 million cwt to 39.0 million. The 2021/22 all rice season average

farm price is unchanged at $14.20 per cwt, compared to $13.90 for 2020/21,
which is also unchanged this month.
The 2021/22 global outlook is for larger supplies, higher consumption and trade, and
increased stocks. Supplies are raised by 1.6 million tons to 682.9 million, primarily on a
combination of higher beginning stocks for China and Bangladesh and increased
production for India. World production is raised to a record 506.6 million tons, mainly on
higher production for India, as its harvested area is expected to remain at the same level
as 2020/21, which was also raised this month. World 2021/22 consumption is raised by
1.2 million tons to a record 514.5 million, mainly on India’s increased supplies. Global
2021/22 trade is raised 0.5 million tons to 47.0 million, primarily on higher exports by
India. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 0.4 million tons to 168.4 million
with China accounting for 65 percent of the total.

OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2021/22 include
higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush
forecast for 2020/21. Soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.175
billion based on a lower forecast for soybean meal domestic disappearance and higher
soybean meal imports. Soybean oil exports for 2020/21 are reduced 400 million pounds
to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market. Conversely, WASDE-613-3
soybean oil domestic disappearance is increased 225 million pounds, reflecting strong
consumption to date. With higher soybean beginning stocks and no use changes for
2021/22, ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, up 15 million from last
month. The 2021/22 season-average soybean and product price forecasts are
unchanged this month.
The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production and
ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is forecast up 0.6
million tons to 632.9 million, with higher canola production partly offset by lower
cottonseed. EU canola production is increased 0.6 million to 17.2 million as cool spring
weather coupled with timely May rainfall boosted yield prospects particularly for France,
Germany, and Poland. Australian canola production is also revised up 0.2 million tons to
3.7 million on higher area harvested and yield.
Global 2021/22 soybean ending stocks are raised 1.5 million tons to 92.6 million, driven
by higher beginning stocks for the United States and Brazil. Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean
production is raised 1.0 million tons to 137.0 million, mainly on higher yields for Mato
Grosso do Sul. Another notable oilseed change includes a 0.5-million-ton reduction to
18.5 million for Malaysian 2020/21 palm oil production due to lower-than-expected recent
monthly output.

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supplies for 2020/21 are decreased by 50,000 short tons, raw value
(STRV) on lower re-export imports. Re-export imports for 2020/21 are estimated at
250,000 STRV and are lowered on the basis of the pace to date. There are no other
changes, implying that beginning stocks for 2021/22 are lower by the 50,000-STRV
amount. There are no other changes to supply or use for 2021/22. With no
announcement on the 2021/22 U.S. additional specialty TRQ, total TRQ imports are still
at minimum levels consistent with WTO and FTA bindings. Ending stocks for 2021/22 are
projected at 1.452 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 11.84 percent.
Mexico sugar production for 2020/21 is estimated at 5.700 million metric tons (MT), a
reduction of 125,000 due to a campaign cut short by an early onset of seasonal rains in
several regional production areas. Exports other than those to the United States under
the Suspension Agreement provisions are reduced by the 125,000-MT amount, leaving
ending stocks unchanged at 910,417 MT. There are no changes to Mexico supply or use
for 2021/22.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2021 red meat and poultry
production is raised from last month as higher forecast beef, broiler, and turkey
production more than offsets lower pork production. The increase in beef production is
small as higher expected cow slaughter is largely offset by lower steer and heifer
slaughter. Pork production is lowered as higher expected slaughter is more than offset
by lower carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised primarily on higher
production in the second quarter while turkey production is raised on hatchery data and a
more rapid pace of slaughter. Egg production is raised from the previous month on
recent hatchery data. The 2022 red meat and poultry production forecast is little changed WASDE-613-4
from last month with only a slight increase in turkey production due to expected
improvement in turkey prices.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2021 and 2022 on expected strength in demand for
processing beef. Exports for both years are raised on expected firm demand from Asian
markets. Pork export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are raised from the previous month as
demand in several markets has strengthened. Broiler and turkey export forecasts for
2021 are raised on recent trade data; no change is made to 2022.
For 2021, cattle, hog, and turkey price forecasts are raised, reflecting current price
strength. Hog and turkey prices are also raised for the first quarter of 2022. Broiler and
egg price forecasts are reduced for second quarter 2021 based on current prices; no
changes are made to prices in the outlying quarters.
Milk production for 2021 is raised from last month on higher expected cow numbers. The
fat basis import forecast is reduced from the previous month on lower expected imports
of butterfat containing products, while the skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged.
Exports on both fat and skims-solids bases are raised from last month. Fat basis export
increases are underpinned largely by higher shipments of butterfat-containing products
and cheese, while skim-solids increases primarily reflect stronger expected cheese,
lactose, and whey shipments. Price forecasts for butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and
whey are raised from the previous month on recent price strength and stronger
anticipated demand. The cheese price forecast is lowered from last month on relatively
large stocks and current prices. The lower forecast cheese price results in a lower Class
III price, but the higher NDM and butter prices support result in a higher Class IV price.
The all milk price forecast is lowered to $18.85 per cwt for 2021.
The 2022 milk production forecast is raised from last month as higher forecast cow
numbers for 2021 carry into 2022. Import forecasts are unchanged. The fat basis export
forecast is unchanged, but the skim-solids export forecast is increased on expected
strength in whey exports. For 2022, butter, NDM, and whey price forecasts are raised
from the previous month while the cheese price is unchanged. Thus, Class III and Class
IV price forecasts are raised from last month. The all milk price forecast is raised to
$18.75 per cwt for 2022.

COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2021/22 show a 100,000-bale increase in
exports from last month, to 14.8 million bales, as stronger than expected late-season
2020/21 shipments extend past July 31. U.S. 2021/22 production and consumption are
unchanged from last month, and with lower beginning stocks and higher exports, ending
stocks are now 200,000 bales lower, at 2.9 million. The upland cotton farm price for
2021/22 is unchanged, at 75 cents per pound, while the 2020/21 price is reduced 1 cent
to 67 cents per pound.
Global ending stocks in 2021/22 are also projected lower this month, down 1.7 million
bales to 89.3 million. Beginning stocks are slightly lower as a 625,000-bale increase in
2020/21 consumption more than offsets higher estimated supplies. Consumption is also
higher for 2021/22, up 1.1 million bales, as increases for China, Bangladesh, and Turkey WASDE-613-5
offset a lower forecast for India. Global cotton production in 2021/22 is 570,000 bales
lower this month, led by a 750,000-bale reduction in China following recent surveys
indicating lower than expected area in Southern Xinjiang. World trade is 1.1 million bales
higher, with increased imports for China, Bangladesh, and Turkey. Expected exports are
higher this month for Brazil, Australia, and Tanzania, as well as the United States.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural
Outlook Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.