WHEAT: The supply and demand outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is mostly unchanged this
month but there are offsetting by-class changes to exports and imports. White wheat exports
are raised on continued strong sales and shipments to China and South Korea. Conversely,
Hard Red Winter exports are lowered as commitments to several Western Hemisphere
markets are below a year ago. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per
bushel.
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher
exports, and reduced stocks this month. Supplies are raised 3.5 million tons to 1,077.1
million. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher
Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate. Australia’s production is raised to a
record 33.0 million tons, surpassing the previous 2016/17 record of 31.8 million. World
2020/21 consumption is increased 6.6 million tons to 775.9 million, mostly on higher feed and
residual use for China. Auction sales of China’s old-crop wheat stocks were large in January
and February as its domestic corn prices remain at a premium to wheat. This is expected to
further heighten China’s 2020/21 wheat feed and residual use, raised 5.0 million tons to a
record 35.0 million.
Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 2.9 million tons to a record 197.7 million, mostly on
higher exports by Australia and Canada. Australia’s exports are raised on greater exportable
supplies while Canada’s exports are increased on a continued strong pace. The largest
import changes this month are for China and Pakistan, where imports are raised to 10.5
million and 3.4 million tons, respectively, on a continued robust pace. Projected 2020/21
imports for both countries are well above their 2019/20 imports. Projected 2020/21 world
ending stocks are lowered 3.0 million tons to 301.2 million with most of the reduction due to
increased consumption for China. However, global stocks are still slightly higher than
2019/20 with China and India holding 50 and 9 percent of the total, respectively.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged
from last month. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.30 per
bushel.  Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast 5.9 million tons higher to 1,444.8
million. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade,
and greater ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher
with increases for India, South Africa, and Bangladesh that are partly offset by a decline for
Mexico. India corn production is higher with increases to both area and yield. South Africa
corn production is raised reflecting more favorable yield prospects. World barley production
is higher with an increase for Australia. WASDE-610-2
Corn exports are raised for India, Vietnam, and South Africa. Imports are increased for
Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. Barley exports are raised for Australia, with
higher imports for Saudi Arabia and Algeria. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are
higher, mostly reflecting increases for India, Vietnam, and Paraguay that are partly offset by
reductions for Argentina and Mexico. Global corn ending stocks, at 287.7 million tons, are up
1.1 million from last month.
RICE: The supply and demand outlook is unchanged for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month. The
projected 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per cwt to $13.60 with
increases in the NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of
the marketing year. Projected prices for both long-grain and Other States medium- and
short-grain are both raised this month to $12.40 and $12.80 per cwt, respectively.
The 2020/21 global outlook is for slightly larger supplies, higher consumption, nearly
unchanged trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are raised 0.2 million tons to 682.5
million, primarily on higher rice production for India more than offsetting reductions for
Bangladesh and Australia. India’s production is raised to a record 121.0 million tons on a
record yield. This would be India’s fifth successively larger crop since 2016/17. World
2020/21 consumption is increased 0.5 million tons to a record 504.7 million, primarily on
more domestic use by India. World trade is virtually unchanged at 46.3 million tons as higher
exports by India at a record 15.5 million are offset on reduced exports by Thailand and Brazil.
Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 0.3 million tons to 177.8 million, primarily
on Bangladesh and Australia.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2020/21 are mostly unchanged
this month. With soybean crush and exports projected at 2.20 billion bushels and 2.25 billion
bushels, respectively, ending stocks remain at 120 million bushels, down 405 million from
last year’s record. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.15 per
bushel, unchanged from last month. Although current cash prices are significantly higher,
prices received through January have averaged just over $10.00 per bushel, reflecting
forward pricing at lower prices. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $400.00 per ton.
The soybean oil price is forecast at 41.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent from last month.
Global 2020/21 oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and
ending stocks. Global production is raised 0.7 million tons to 595.8 million, with higher
soybean and rapeseed partly offset by lower palm kernel, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed.
Soybean production for Brazil is raised 1 million tons to 134 million, reflecting a revision to
the 2019/20 crop and this season’s expected yield trend. India’s soybean production is
raised 0.2 million tons to 10.7 million based on updated government area data. Conversely,
Argentina’s soybean production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 47.5 million due to dry weather
conditions over the past month.
Global oilseed exports are raised 0.8 million tons to 194.7 million, mainly on higher rapeseed
exports for Ukraine and Australia. Rapeseed imports are increased for the EU-27+UK where
the crop is also raised to 17.1 million tons based on updated government data. Global
soybean crush is forecast up 1.6 million tons to 323.6 million as higher crush for Argentina
and Brazil is partly offset by lower crush for China. Higher crush in Argentina results in
higher meal and oil exports. Soybean crush for China is lowered 1 million tons to 98 million WASDE-610-3
based on data to date. Global soybean stocks are slightly higher, with increased stocks for
China and Brazil that are mostly offset by lower stocks for Argentina.

SUGAR: Mexico sugar production is reduced by 50,000 metric tons (MT) to 5.900 million on
lower projections of sugarcane and sugar yields based on analysis of yields reported through
the end of February. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced on the pace to date but
the reduction is limited by an increase made by CONADESUCA to its own projection. The
new projection is 4.030 million MT. That projection plus expected deliveries to IMMEX put
total deliveries at 4.445 million MT. There is a minor adjustment to expected ending stocks
based on reduced deliveries, and total exports are residually increased to 1.492 million MT.
Exports to the United States this month are adjusted in Mexico by the new export limit to be
established by the U.S. Department of Commerce after the publication of this March 2021
WASDE as set out in the AD/CVD Suspension Agreement. Because the export limit set by
Commerce in December 2020 is larger than U.S. Needs based on this WASDE, the export
limit is projected to be set at 794,146 MT, the same as set by Commerce in December.
Added to this is a small amount exported to the United States in October 2020 from last
year’s allocation to bring the total to 796,528 MT or 930,703 STRV. Exports to third countries
that can include exports to the U.S. re-export import program are residually projected at
695,475 MT.
U.S. sugar supply for 2020/21 is decreased 219,671 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.113
million on projected increases in production being more than offset by decreases in expected
imports. Beet sugar production is increased 46,895 STRV to 5.093 million on a projected
increase in national sucrose recovery to 15.275 percent. Recoveries in all regions including
the Upper Midwest are projected to be at above-average high levels, pushing the national
recovery projection 1.50 standard deviations above its 8-year average since 2012/13.
Processor forecasts of beet pile shrink have not varied much during the campaign.
Estimates of an above-average proportion of sugarbeets sliced relative to beets harvested
through the end of January is a sign of reduced probability of shrink for the remainder of the
campaign. Processors indicate that recent above-average temperatures are not a major
concern for shrink. Cane sugar production in Louisiana is increased by 17,666 STRV to
1.949 million on crop year estimates published in the Sweetener Market Data. Cane sugar
production in Texas is reduced 2,252 STRV to 131,748 on a processor report at the end of
the campaign. Re-export imports are decreased by 50,000 STRV on the slow pace to date
and the likelihood of a continuation of lower margins between U.S. and world raw sugar
prices. Imports from Mexico are reduced by 231,980 STRV to 930,703 as detailed in the
preceding paragraph.
U.S. deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12.125 million on the
slow pace through one-third of the fiscal year. These deliveries have been difficult to project
because of the unusually high Direct Consumption Imports of 204,670 STRV recorded as
entering in September of 2019/20 but unlikely to have been delivered to actual end users
until sometime in 2020/21. A precise allocation is difficult to establish but this season’s slow
pace of recorded deliveries is indicative of the effect. Ending stocks are residually projected
at 1.848 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.07 percent.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2021 forecast for total red meat and poultry
production is lowered from last month as lower expected pork, broiler, and turkey production
more than offsets slightly higher beef production. Pork production is lowered on a slowerWASDE-610-4
pace of hog slaughter although higher expected carcass weights in the first half of the year
temper the decline. Broiler production is lowered for the first quarter on to-date slaughter
data; production in the outlying quarters is unchanged from last month. Turkey production is
lowered on recent hatchery and slaughter data. First-half beef production is raised from last
month as lower expected fed cattle slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by higher
first-half non-fed cattle slaughter. Second-half production is adjusted to reflect a more rapid
pace of first-quarter feedlot placements. Forecast egg production is raised from last month,
on both higher table and hatching egg production
The 2021 beef import forecast is reduced on increased competition for relatively tight
supplies of beef from Oceania. The beef export forecast is unchanged from last month. The
annual forecasts for pork imports and exports are unchanged from last month. The broiler
export forecast is reduced from last month on expected weakness in demand, and the turkey
forecast is lowered on the pace of exports in the first quarter.
Fed cattle prices are unchanged from last month. Hog price forecasts are raised from last
month on current prices and expectations of firm demand. Broiler and turkey price forecasts
are raised on current prices and tighter expected supplies. Egg prices are raised on current
prices and stronger expected demand into the next quarter.
The 2020 milk production estimate is adjusted to reflect recent data revisions. For 2021, the
milk production forecast is lowered slightly from last month as a higher expected cow
inventory is more than offset by slower growth in milk per cow. The 2021 fat basis import
forecast is reduced on lower expected imports of butterfat; fat basis exports are raised as
higher shipments of butterfat more than offset lower forecast cheese exports. On a skimsolids basis, the import forecast is unchanged due to offsetting changes in imports of a
number of dairy products while the export forecast is lowered, reflecting expectations of
lower lactose shipments which are partly offset by higher exports of skim/nonfat milk powder.
The annual cheese price forecast is unchanged from last month as weaker prices in the first
part of 2021 are offset by improved demand later in the year. Butter, nonfat dry milk, and
whey price forecasts are raised from last month with expected improvements in both
domestic and export demand. These higher product prices are reflected in higher Class III
and Class IV prices. The 2021 all milk price forecast is raised to $17.75 per cwt.

COTTON: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton forecasts show lower production, consumption,
and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 250,000 bales to 14.7
million, based on the March 9 Cotton Ginnings report. The final estimates for this season’s
U.S. area, yield, and production will be published in the May 2021 Crop Production report.
Consumption is reduced 100,000 bales due to the industry’s lagging recovery from the
previous year’s sharp losses. Ending stocks are 100,000 bales lower this month at 4.2
million bales. The projected marketing year average price received by upland producers of
69.0 cents per pound is up 1 cent from last month.
The global 2020/21 cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production and ending
stocks compared with last month, but higher mill use and trade. Estimated global production
is reduced nearly 830,000 bales, largely due to lower Brazilian and U.S. production. Cotton
import pace and indications of recovering global consumption helped boost consumption
estimates for Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam, more than offsetting lower WASDE-610-5
projections for the United States and Taiwan. Imports are also projected higher in the
countries with larger consumption, and the forecast for 2020/21 world trade is more than
600,000 bales higher this month. On the export side, higher Indian exports account for most
of the increase as auctions by the Cotton Corporation of India have released much of the
cotton purchased last year under the Minimum Support Price program. World ending stocks
in 2020/21 are forecast 1.1 million bales lower than last month, at 94.6 million bales.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board,
Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
SETH MEYER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNAT