WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly smaller supplies,
unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on
lower imports, which are decreased 5 million bushels to 120 million on a slower-than expected pace. Exports are raised 10 million bushels to 985 million as higher white wheat
exports are partially offset by lower Hard Red Winter (HRW) exports. Sales and shipments
of white wheat have been robust this marketing year to several East Asian countries.
Conversely, HRW exports have slowed for the past several weeks. Projected 2020/21
ending stocks are reduced 15 million bushels to 862 million, down 16 percent from last year.
The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel.
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher
exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised 1.2 million tons to 1,074.3 million on higher
global production, which is now a new record at 773.7 million. Most of this month’s
production increase is for Australia, which is raised 1.5 million tons to 30.0 million. This
increase is partially based on the latest ABARES production forecast. Russia’s production is
raised 500,000 tons to 84.0 million with the harvest results now complete. Canada’s wheat
production is raised 0.2 million tons to 35.2 million on the final Statistics Canada estimate for
the 2020/21 crop year. With this month’s production changes, Australia, Canada, and Russia
all have their second largest wheat production on record.
World 2020/21 consumption is increased 5.1 million tons to 757.8 million, mostly on higher
feed and residual use for China, Australia, and the EU. China is raised 3.0 million tons to
24.0 million, which would be its highest wheat feed and residual use since 2012/13.
Increased wheat feed usage is expected as China’s domestic price premium of wheat over
corn has narrowed significantly this year with greater supplies of old-crop wheat available
through government auctions of grain stocks. Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 2.9
million tons to 193.7 million on higher exports for Australia, Canada, Russia and the United
States. The largest import increases this month are for China and Pakistan, each raised
500,000 tons. China’s import pace continues to be significantly higher than last year and at
8.5 million tons, imports would be the largest since 1995/96. Pakistan continues to actively
import wheat to raise stocks in order to alleviate food price inflation concerns. Pakistan’s
imports of 2.5 million tons would be its largest since 2008/09. Projected 2020/21 world
ending stocks are lowered 3.9 million tons to 316.5 million but remain record high with China
and India holding 51 and 10 percent of the total, respectively.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged
from last month. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.00 per
bushel.
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Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast virtually unchanged at 1,447.8 million
tons. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for essentially unchanged production,
greater trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is
forecast lower as an increase for Ukraine is more than offset by reductions for Argentina, the
EU, and Canada. Argentina corn production is reduced based on lower expected area.
Canada corn output is lowered as marginally higher area is more than offset by a reduction in
yield. EU corn production is down mostly reflecting a smaller forecast for Bulgaria. Ukraine
corn production is raised based on harvest results to date. Barley production is raised for
Australia and Canada. Sorghum production is increased for Argentina.
Corn exports are raised for Ukraine but lowered for the EU. Imports are raised for China and
Bangladesh, with partially offsetting reductions for the EU, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, and Tunisia.
China’s sorghum and barley imports are projected higher, raising the country’s total coarse
grain imports 4.8 million tons to 30.9 million. If realized, this would be record high and
account for 14 percent of global coarse grain trade, slightly below the high seen during
2014/15. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are reduced, mostly reflecting reductions
for India, Brazil, Canada, Ukraine, and Egypt.

RICE: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for slightly lower supplies, unchanged
domestic use, decreased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered, all on
reduced medium- and short-grain imports. Imports are lowered by 0.8 million cwt to 36.5
million as reduced shipments from China to Puerto Rico are expected. Exports are lowered
by 2.0 million cwt to 95.0 million on the continued weak pace of sales and shipments in the
first half of the marketing year (MY) with all the reduction for long-grain. Projected 2020/21
all rice ending stocks are raised 1.3 million cwt to 50.8 million, up 77 percent from last year.
These would be the largest ending stocks since the 1986/87 MY. The projected 2020/21 all
rice season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per cwt to $13.10 with increases in both the
long-grain and medium- and short-grain prices. These increases are based on NASS prices
reported through October and price expectations for the remainder of the MY.
The 2020/21 global outlook is for slightly higher supplies, larger consumption, increased
trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are raised 0.4 million tons to 679.4 million,
primarily on increased beginning stocks for Pakistan and higher production for Australia.
World production for 2020/21 is raised 0.1 million tons as higher production for Australia and
Peru is nearly offset by a reduction for South Korea. Global 2020/21 consumption is
increased 1.2 million tons to 500.4 million, led by greater consumption for Nigeria and Saudi
Arabia. World trade is raised by 1.0 million tons to 45.3 million tons, primarily on increased
exports by India as its shipment pace since August remains robust. Projected 2020/21 world
ending stocks are lowered 0.8 million tons to 179.0 million but are still record high with China
and India accounting for 65 and 17 percent, respectively.

OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is projected at 123.7 million tons,
down from last month on lower cottonseed production. Soybean crush for 2020/21 is
increased 15 million bushels to 2.195 billion on strong crush margins and record earlyseason crush. With exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at
175 million bushels. If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest since 2013/14.
Soybean and soybean product prices are forecast higher this month. The U.S. seasonaverage soybean price for 2020/21 is projected at $10.55 per bushel, up 15 cents. The
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soybean meal price is projected at $370 per short ton, up 15 dollars. The soybean oil price is
forecast at 36 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents with cash prices reaching the highest level in
the past six years.
The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, higher
exports, and lower ending stocks. Global oilseed production is projected at 595.7 million
tons, down 1.6 million from last month, with lower soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and
cottonseed. Global soybean production is projected down 0.6 million tons to 362.1 million.
Higher soybean crops for Canada and Uruguay are offset by lower production for Argentina,
which is reduced 1 million tons to 50 million on lower harvested area. Lower production for
Argentina leads to lower crush and soybean meal exports, supporting higher U.S. exports.
Global rapeseed production is projected lower as reduced estimates for Canada and the EU
are partly offset by a larger Australian crop. Global sunflowerseed production is projected
down 0.2 million tons to 49.5 million, with lower crops for Argentina and the EU.
Global oilseed trade for 2020/21 is projected at 191.8 million tons, up 1.0 million from last
month. Increased soybean exports for Canada and Uruguay and increased rapeseed
exports for Canada and Australia account for most of the gains. Global oilseed ending
stocks are projected at 97.8 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2020/21 is increased 357,525 short tons, raw value (STRV)
to 14.006 million on projected increases in imports more than compensating for production
decreases and a slight reduction in beginning stocks. Imports are projected to increase
403,706 STRV to 3.428 million. The largest increase is for imports from Mexico. These are
increased by 271,750 STRV to 1.160 million. Raw sugar 2019/20 TRQ entering in October
2020 has been revised upward by 96,956 STRV for a total of 248,854 STRV. After the
publication of USDA’s Sweetener Market Data this month, FAS resolved certain anomalies in
Customs reporting for TRQ entries. Additional sugar not recorded for October sourced from
Australia, Brazil, and several other countries was determined to have entered. As a
consequence of this adjustment, raw sugar TRQ imports for 2020/21 are projected at 1.381
million STRV, and the 2019/20 raw sugar TRQ shortfall is estimated at 84,180 STRV. Hightier tariff imports for 2020/21 are increased by 35,000 STRV to 110,000 on the pace to date.
Beet sugar production is reduced by 40,396 STRV to 4.859 million on processors’ forecasts
of national sugarbeet production lower than that forecast last month by NASS. Although
NASS increased Louisiana sugarcane yield 7.4 percent to 32.0 tons/acre, cane sugar
production is unchanged due to the slower-than-expected pace during the hurricane-affected
early weeks of the campaign and the planned extension of harvest end dates to
accommodate the large crop. There are no changes to 2020/21 use. Ending stocks for
2020/21 are projected residually at 1.666 million STRV implying an ending stocks-to-use
ratio of 13.50 percent.
Sugar supply in Mexico for 2020/21 is up on increased imports of sugar for consumption in
the amount of 19,000 metric tons (MT). This increase is based on FAS Post analysis. Total
imports are projected at 105,000 MT, of which 40,000 are for consumption and 65,000 for
IMMEX. There are no other supply changes. Exports are residually increased by the same
19,000 MT. Exports to the United States are increased to 992,683 MT on calculated U.S.
Needs as set out in the AD/CVD Suspension Agreements. Exports to third-country
destinations are residually decreased to 496,824 MT.
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LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total red meat and poultry production for 2020 is little
changed from last month as higher beef and pork production nearly offsets lower poultry
production. The beef production forecast is raised as higher non-fed cattle slaughter more
than offsets lighter expected cattle carcass weights. Pork production is increased on the
current pace of slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Broiler production is reduced on
recent hatchery and slaughter data while the turkey production forecast is lowered on recent
slaughter data. The egg production forecast is raised.
For 2021, total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month as lower forecast
beef and poultry production more that offsets slightly higher pork production. Beef
production is reduced on lower expected fed and non-fed cattle slaughter in the first half of
2021. Pork production is raised on heavier carcass weights. Broiler and turkey production
forecasts are reduced on recent hatchery data.
Based on recent trade data, the beef import forecast for 2020 is reduced from last month, but
the pork import forecast is raised. Beef and pork export forecasts are unchanged for 2020
and 2021. Broiler and turkey exports for 2020 and 2021 are raised on recent trade data and
anticipated strong global import demand from key trading partners.
The cattle price forecast for 2020 is reduced on current price weakness but is raised for
2021. The fourth-quarter hog price is raised on recent prices; no change is made to 2021
hog prices. The 2020 and 2021 broiler price forecasts are raised from last month on current
prices and lower supply expectations. The 2020 turkey price is reduced, but no change is
made to the 2021 forecast. The egg price forecasts for 2020 and 2021 are lowered on recent
prices and expectations of weaker demand.
Milk production is projected higher for 2020, on higher cow numbers. The 2020 fat basis
import forecast is reduced on lower imports of butterfat products while the fat basis export
forecast is lowered on weaker foreign demand for cheese. The 2020 skim-solids basis
import forecast is unchanged, but the export forecast is raised on strong global demand for
whey and whey products. For 2021, milk production is raised on higher cow numbers. The
fat basis import forecast is reduced on lower expected imports of a number of dairy products,
but the export forecast is raised. The skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged, but the
export forecast is raised on larger shipments of nonfat dry milk powder and dry whey
products.
Based on recent price movements, cheese and butter price forecasts for 2020 are lowered,
but the whey price is raised. The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is unchanged. For 2021,
cheese and butter price forecasts are reduced on weaker expected demand and larger
supplies, but NDM and whey prices are raised. The 2020 Class III price forecast is lowered
as the weaker cheese price more than offsets higher whey price projections; the Class IV
price is also lowered from last month on the lower butter price. For 2021, forecasts of both
Class III and Class IV are reduced from last month on weaker prices for cheese and butter
respectively. The 2020 all milk price is unchanged at $18.25 per cwt; the 2021 all milk price
is lowered to $16.60 per cwt.

COTTON: This month’s outlook for U.S. cotton includes lower production, higher exports,
and lower ending stocks. Production is lowered 1.1 million bales, mainly due to a 900,000-
bale reduction in Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are raised 400,000
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bales to 15.0 million as world consumption and U.S. export sales rise. Ending stocks are 1.5
million bales lower, at 5.7 million or 33 percent of use. This stocks-to-use ratio would be 8
percentage points lower than in 2019/20, and the second highest since 2007/08. Upland
cotton’s projected 2020/21 season-average price is 65.0 cents per pound, 1 cent higher than
last month and 5.4 cents above 2019/20.
Projected world 2020/21 ending stocks are 3.9 million bales lower this month, reflecting lower
production and higher consumption. A 2.2-million-bale decline in global production is led by
lower U.S. output and includes 500,000-bale reductions in both India and Pakistan, in
addition to other smaller adjustments. Consumption is projected 1.6 million bales higher, and
at 115.6 million bales, is expected 13 percent above 2019/20’s depressed level. Compared
to last month, 2020/21 consumption forecasts are 1.0 million bales higher for India and
500,000 bales higher for China, with smaller changes for Pakistan and Thailand. World trade
in 2020/21 is projected more than 300,000 bales higher this month, with increased imports
for China and Pakistan more than offsetting lower forecasts for Bangladesh, Thailand, and
Indonesia. World ending stocks are now forecast at 97.5 million bales, 1.9 million lower than
in 2019/20.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board,
Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
BILL NORTHEY
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNA