NOTE: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication.
Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain
in place.
WHEAT: This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger
supplies, slightly smaller domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks.
Supplies are raised on higher projected imports, up 10 million bushels to 150 million, with
increases for Hard Red Spring (HRS), Durum, White, and Hard Red Winter (HRW). At
this level, imports would be the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast
2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use, based primarily on the March NASS
Prospective Plantings report. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 120 million bushels,
but there are offsetting by-class revisions based on the March 31 NASS Grain Stocks
report. Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million with reductions to HRS and
HRW. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 27 million bushels to 846 million, 22
percent above the previous year. The season average farm price is unchanged at $5.50
per bushel.
The 2024/25 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller supplies, consumption, and
exports and larger ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 0.8 million tons to 1,065.9 million
primarily on reduced production estimates for Saudi Arabia and the EU, as well as lower
beginning stock estimates for Uzbekistan and Israel. World consumption is forecast 1.4
million tons lower to 805.2 million, primarily on lower food, seed, and industrial use for
India and China. Projected 2024/25 global trade is cut 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million,
mostly on lower export forecasts for Russia, Australia, and the EU that are only partly
offset by increases for Canada and Ukraine. Exports for 2024/25 are expected to be 7
percent lower than the previous year. Projected 2024/25 world ending stocks are
increased 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million as higher stocks for India, Russia, the United
States, and the EU are partly offset by a decrease for China. Global stocks for 2024/25
are now three percent below the previous year and the lowest since 2015/16.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports,
reduced feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks. Feed and residual use is cut
25 million bushels to 5.8 billion based on disappearance during the December-February
quarter as indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 100 million
bushels reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S.
prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last
month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged
at $4.35 per bushel.
WASDE-659-2
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 0.4 million tons lower to 1.495
billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, virtually
unchanged trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production
is raised, with increases for the EU, Tanzania, and Honduras partially offset by declines
for Moldova, Cambodia, and Kenya. EU corn is higher reflecting larger crops for Poland,
Croatia, France, and Germany that are partially offset by reductions for Romania and
Bulgaria.
Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include higher projected corn exports for the
United States and a reduction for Pakistan. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Mexico,
Turkey, and Peru but lowered for Vietnam. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher relative
to last month, reflecting increases for South Korea and Pakistan. Global corn ending
stocks, at 287.7 million tons, are down 1.3 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. rice this month is for slightly lower supplies,
increased domestic use, reduced exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are
decreased, all on medium- and short-grain imports due to a recent slowing of imports by
Puerto Rico. Domestic use and residual is raised 3.0 million cwt (all long-grain) to a
record 169.0 million, primarily on the latest NASS Rice Stocks report. All rice exports are
reduced 1.5 million cwt to 95.5 million. Long-grain exports are lowered 2.0 million cwt to
66.0 million on continued slow sales and shipments of rough rice to Western Hemisphere
markets. Partially offsetting this are higher medium- and short-grain exports, up 0.5
million cwt to 29.5 million on continued strong sales and shipments to Northeast Asian
markets. The combination of lower imports and higher domestic use more than offsets
lower exports, reducing 2024/25 ending stocks 2.5 million cwt to 44.5 million. The
2024/25 season-average farm prices for rice are unchanged this month.
The 2024/25 global rice outlook this month is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and
ending stocks. Supplies are raised 3.1 million tons to 715.3 million, mainly on higher
production for India, Indonesia, and Cambodia. India’s production is raised 2.0 million to
a record 147.0 million on the government’s Second Advanced Estimate, which included
the kharif and rabi crops, and the expectation the summer crop output will be similar to
recent years. This is the ninth consecutive year of higher rice production for India and is
the first time India surpassed China in rice production, making India the leading global
rice producer for 2024/25. World 2024/25 consumption is raised 1.4 million tons to 532.1
million, mostly on increases for several Sub-Saharan African countries. Global 2024/25
trade is up 2.2 million tons to a record 60.6 million mostly on larger exports for India,
which are increased to a record 24.5 million tons. Projected 2024/25 world ending stocks
are raised 1.7 million tons to 183.2 million, primarily on increases for Indonesia, Thailand,
and Vietnam.
OILSEEDS: The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2024/25 includes higher
imports and crush, and lower ending stocks. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels
to 4.42 billion on higher soybean meal domestic use and soybean oil exports. Soybean
oil exports are increased based on export commitments. Soybean oil for biofuel is
lowered based on pace to date. However, stronger use is forecast for the last part of the
marketing year due to tariffs impacting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, like used
WASDE-659-3
cooking oil. With soybean exports unchanged and imports increased slightly, soybean
ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 375 million.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $9.95 per
bushel. The soybean meal price is lowered $10 to $300 per short ton and the soybean oil
price is raised 2 cents to 45 cents per pound.
Global 2024/25 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks,
lower production, and higher exports, crush, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are
raised 2.7 million tons mainly on a revised 2023/24 crop for Brazil. After a review of 2024
disappearance data, Brazil’s 2023/24 production is raised 1.5 million tons to 154.5
million.
Global soybean production for 2024/25 is lowered 0.2 million tons on lower production for
Bolivia partly offset by higher output for South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and the
European Union. Global soybean crush is raised 2.0 million tons to 354.8 million on
higher crush for Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the United States. Ample global soybean
meal supplies, lower prices, and lower supply of alternative oilseed meals, led to
increased use of soybean meal consumption globally.
Despite increased soybean crush, global vegetable oil production for 2024/25 is lowered
0.9 million tons to 228.1 million as gains in soybean oil production are offset by lower
palm oil production. Palm oil production is reduced 1.3 million tons to 78.2 million on
lower output for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Global soybean exports are raised 0.2 million tons to 182.1 million. Exports are raised for
Canada and Nigeria but lowered for Ukraine. Global soybean ending stocks are raised
1.1 million tons to 122.5 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and the EU.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year (FY) 2024/25 is increased by 143,758 short
tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.461 million on increases in high-tier tariff imports and
beginning stocks more than offsetting a decrease in sugar production. Raw high-tier tariff
imports entering the United States from October 1 through the first week of April totaled
261,758 STRV, an increase of 88,070 over the previous month. Refined high-tier tariff
imports totaled 237,104 STRV over the same period for a monthly average of 39,517
STRV. A decrease in the pace is posited as more likely than an increase or unchanged
due to historically high current levels of refined beet and cane sugar that could increase
competition for refined high-tier from the domestically produced product. Monthly entries
for the remaining 6 months of the fiscal year are projected, therefore, at 75 percent of the
first six-month average, implying total high-tier refined at 414,931 STRV. Molasses
imported as an input in sugar refining is unchanged at a sugar-equivalence of 54,645
STRV. Sugar production is decreased 39,316 STRV, mostly on lower cane sugar
production in Florida from lower sugarcane yields reported by processors. With no
changes for sugar use, ending stocks are projected up by the supply increase to 2.016
million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16.20 percent.
The sugar balance in Mexico is unchanged from last month.
WASDE-659-4
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: For 2025, total red meat and poultry production is
lowered. Pork production is lowered on reduced slaughter and weights. The current
outlook for hog slaughter in 2025 reflects the information provided in the March 27
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed lower pig crops than previously reported for
2024 and indications of lower farrowings through much of 2025. Beef production is raised
as heavier dressed weights and higher cow and bull slaughter are partially offset by lower
steer and heifer slaughter. Broiler production is raised on improved returns during the
second half of the year. Turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery and production
data. Egg production is lowered on recent layer inventory and production data.
Beef exports are lowered for 2025 based on recent trade data, as well as newly imposed
tariffs and non-tariff barriers faced by U.S. beef exports to China. Beef imports are
lowered based on higher tariff rates for foreign suppliers for the remainder of the year.
Pork exports are lowered from the previous month due to the latest trade data, increased
tariff rates for U.S. pork shipments to China, and price competition from other major
exporting countries. Broiler exports are lowered on less competitive U.S. prices during
the second half of the year. Turkey exports are lowered on recent trade data and reduced
domestic production. Egg imports are raised on recent trade data.
Cattle prices are raised on reported data through the first quarter and expected robust
demand for the remainder of the year. Hog prices are lowered, with slightly higher
reported first-quarter prices more than offset by weaker export demand for the remainder
of the year. Broiler prices are raised on recent reported data through the first quarter of
the year and continued strength in domestic demand. Turkey prices are also raised on
reported prices through the first quarter of the year and the lower expected supplies for
the year. Eggs are lowered on recent prices and the expectation that the layer flock will
recover over the remainder of the year.
The milk production forecast for 2025 is raised on larger cow inventories and slightly
higher milk per cow. Imports are lower on both a fat and skim-solids basis, primarily due
to additional duties placed on imported dairy products, in particular imports of butter fats
and milk protein products. Exports on a skim-solid basis are reduced, primarily on lower
shipments of dried skim milk products and whey products. Exports on a fat basis are
raised on higher expected shipments of butter.
Prices for butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey are all lowered for 2025 on
recent prices and higher expected milk supplies. Class III prices are lowered on lower
cheese and whey prices. Class IV prices are lowered on lower butter and NDM prices.
The all milk price is projected lower to $21.10 per cwt.
COTTON: In this month’s 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet, the only changes are a
100,000-bale reduction in exports to 10.9 million bales and an increase in ending stocks
of the same amount to 5.0 million bales. The projected 2024/25 season average upland
farm price is unchanged at 63 cents per pound.
Production, consumption, and trade are reduced in this month’s 2024/25 world cotton
balance sheet while stocks are raised. Lower production in Argentina, Cote d’Ivoire, and
other countries more than offsets an increase in China, for an overall decline of 69,000
WASDE-659-5
bales. Global textile mill use is down 520,000 bales this month, primarily because of
reductions for China and Indonesia that more than offset an increase for Turkey. Similarly,
imports are lower this month as reductions for China and Indonesia more than offset an
increase for Turkey, with small changes elsewhere. Exports are reduced for Australia,
Brazil, the United States, Cote d’Ivoire, and other countries, more than offsetting
increases for Turkey and Kazakhstan. Beginning stocks are increased 25,000 bales
following back year adjustments to imports, consumption, and ending stocks for Egypt.
World ending stocks for 2024/25 are raised over 520,000 bales, with increases for China,
Australia, Brazil, Egypt, and the United States that more than offset reductions for Turkey
and Argentina, with largely offsetting changes elsewhere.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
