NOTE: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of
publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these
policies remain in place.
U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered
under USMCA, which include most agricultural products in the WASDE. Reciprocal tariffs are also
scheduled to begin on April 2. However, until these are in effect, WASDE does not incorporate
them into commodity forecasts. Despite U.S. tariffs being suspended, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs
remain in place. These are accounted for in WASDE estimates and are assumed to continue. U.S.
tariffs on China and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are assumed to remain in place.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies,
unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised
on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 140 million on a continued robust pace.
By-class increases were made to Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum. Wheat exports are
lowered 15 million bushels to 835 million, based on Census exports through January and
expectations for sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year. By-class
reductions were made to HRS, Soft Red Winter, and Durum. Projected 2024/25 ending
stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. The
season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $5.50 on NASS prices
reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook this month for 2024/25 is for larger supplies, higher
consumption, reduced trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are projected up by
5.4 million tons to 1,066.7 million, mainly on increased beginning stocks for Turkey and
higher production for Australia, Argentina and Ukraine. Australia’s production is raised 2.1
million tons to 34.1 million, which is Australia’s third largest production on record. This is
based on the latest ABARES estimate, where most of the higher production was in
Western Australia and New South Wales. Turkey’s 2024/25 beginning stocks are raised
2.2 million tons on a multi-year downward revision in its food, seed, and industrial usage.
Global consumption is raised 2.9 million tons to 806.7 million, primarily on higher feed
and residual use for Australia, EU, and Thailand. World trade is 0.9 million tons lower at
208.1 million on decreased exports for EU, Russia, and the United States. China’s
imports are reduced 1.5 million tons to 6.5 million and are less than half of its 2023/24
imports. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 2.5 million tons to 260.1
million, mostly on increases for Turkey, Argentina, the United States, Australia, and
Russia.
WASDE-658-2
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last
month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per
bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.496
billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, reduced trade,
and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher as
increases for India, Russia, and Ukraine are partly offset by declines for South Africa and
Mexico. India is raised reflecting increases to both area and yield; the latest information
from the government indicates greater planted area, while yield prospects are higher on
exceptional kharif monsoon season rainfall. Russia is increased based on the latest data
from Rosstat. Ukraine is raised based on updated harvest information. South Africa is
reduced mostly reflecting lower area. Mexico is cut as lower winter corn yield
expectations are partially offset by higher summer corn area. Foreign barley production is
raised, with an increase for Australia partly offset by a decline for Argentina.
Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include reduced corn exports for Brazil and South
Africa. For 2023/24, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2025 are
lowered based on observed shipments to date. More than offsetting is an increase for
Argentina. Corn imports for 2024/25 are cut for China and Taiwan but raised for Turkey,
Vietnam, Colombia, and Egypt. Barley exports are raised for Australia, Russia, and
Turkey but lowered for Argentina. Barley imports are raised for Iran and Iraq. Foreign
corn ending stocks are lowered, mostly reflecting declines for China and Argentina that
are partly offset by increases for Russia and India. Global corn ending stocks, at 288.9
million tons, are down 1.4 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. rice this month is for slightly higher supplies, larger
exports, and unchanged domestic use and ending stocks. Total supplies are increased,
all on higher imports. All rice imports are raised 1.0 million cwt, to a record 48.0 million,
with all of the increase in long-grain on the strong pace of Thai jasmine and Indian
basmati rice imports to date. All rice exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 97.0 million, with
all of the increase in medium- and short-grain rice on a continued strong pace of sales
and shipments, mostly to Northeast Asia. Projected ending stocks are unchanged at 47.0
million cwt and remain the highest since 2014/15. The season-average farm price for all
rice is raised $0.20 per cwt to $15.60 on higher-than-expected prices for the month of
January for both classes of rice reported in the February NASS Agricultural Prices.
The 2024/25 global outlook this month is minimally changed. Global production is virtually
unchanged and supplies are raised only fractionally on a small increase in beginning
stocks. Global consumption is 0.2 million tons higher at 530.7 million, on increases for
Bangladesh and Nepal. With minor revisions to global exports, ending stocks are reduced
only slightly, down 0.1 million tons to 181.5 million.
OILSEEDS: U.S. 2024/25 soybean supply and use projections are unchanged this
month. The soybean oil balance sheet includes higher exports and lower soybean oil
used for biofuel. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel,
down 15 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per
short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively.
WASDE-658-3
Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include nearly unchanged production,
higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Higher production for Ukraine, Mexico, and
Australia is offset by lower production for South Africa. Soybean crush is raised 2.9
million tons to 352.8 million, mainly on higher crush for China, Argentina, Thailand,
Ukraine, and Pakistan. Soybean crush for China is raised 2 million tons to 105 million
based on pace to date. Global soybean exports are nearly unchanged as higher
shipments for Canada are offset by lower exports for South Africa. Global ending stocks
are reduced 2.9 million tons to 121.4 million mainly on lower stocks for China and
Argentina.
Also to note, 2024/25 global production of high-oil content seeds (rapeseed and
sunflowerseed) is raised 1 percent this month but still 5 percent lower than 2023/24.
Sunflowerseed production is raised for Russia and Ukraine and rapeseed production is
raised for Australia and Ukraine.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is decreased by 75,701 short tons, raw value
(STRV) to 14.317 million on decreases in imports more than offsetting an increase in
sugar production. Based on processor reporting in the Sweetener Market Data (SMD),
cane sugar production in Louisiana is increased by 28,679 STRV to 2.049 million on
greater production in January than projected last month. Cane sugar production in Florida
is reduced 26,763 STRV to 1.971 million on processors’ reporting of a lower sugarcane
yield. Beet sugar production is increased 35,980 STRV on an increase in sucrose
recovery from sliced beets more than offsetting a small increase in beet pile shrink and
slightly lower sugar from desugared molasses. The increase in recovery is due to
resolution of certain factory problems limiting earlier season production in the Pacific
Northwest. Sugarbeets remaining to be processed are high in sucrose content and high
in juice purity and are storing well. Slicing is expected to extend into May to compensate
for earlier difficulties in processing plants. Processors in the Red River Valley are
confident of beet storage conditions being manageable through the rest of the season.
Any production problems in Michigan were recognized early on by the processor and
incorporated into earlier sugar WASDEs. Sugar imports are decreased 113,597 STRV
mostly on lower imports from Mexico. In March, the Department of Commerce (DOC)
sets the final Mexico export limit at the higher of two amounts; namely, U.S. Sugar Needs
calculated from the March WASDE as defined in the CVD Suspension Agreement or an
Export Limit previously established by DOC. The Export Limit set by DOC from
December WASDE is determined to be higher than the U.S. Needs in this month’s
WASDE. Partially offsetting is an increase in high-tier tariffs imports of 10,588 STRV on
actual entries exceeding last month’s projection.
Deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 35,000 STRV to 12.240 million on
lower recent period deliveries than originally projected. The net effect on ending stocks is
a decrease of 40,701 STRV to 1.872 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.04
percent.
Mexico sugar production for 2024/25 is unchanged from last month at 4.859 million
metric tons (MT). Based on FAS Mexico City reporting, imports are increased to 189,000
MT and deliveries for consumption are lowered to 4.198 million MT. Ending stocks are
decreased slightly and exports are residually projected at 957,021 MT, an increase of
WASDE-658-4
100,095 over last month. Exports under license to the United States are reduced 106,282
MT to 425,127 while exports to other destinations are increased 206,377 MT to 531,894.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Historical red meat, poultry, and egg supply and
use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and
production data.
Total red meat and poultry production for 2025 is raised on higher beef and chicken
production forecasts, which is partially offset by lower pork and turkey production
forecasts. The higher beef production forecast is due to heavier dressed weights more
than offsetting lower slaughter. Pork production is lowered on a slower rate of slaughter in
the first quarter, partially offset by heavier dressed weights. USDA will release the
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27, providing a further indication of hog
supplies for slaughter in the second half of the year. Broiler production is raised on
improved returns and the latest placement and hatchery data. Turkey production is
lowered on the latest hatchery data. Egg production is lowered due to Highly Pathogenic
Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling of the egg laying flock through early March that is
expected to affect production through the first three quarters of 2025.
The beef export forecast for 2025 is raised, with increased production allowing for
additional supplies in the second half of the year. Beef imports are raised on strong
shipments during January and continued strong demand for lean processing beef. Pork
exports are reduced on lower expected domestic supplies and increased global price
competition. Broiler exports are reduced on the latest trade data and continued price
competition from global exporters dampening U.S. shipments. Turkey exports are
lowered on the lower expected domestic supplies.
Cattle price forecasts are lowered for the first half of 2025 based on recent prices. The
second half is unchanged as demand for cattle is expected to remain strong. Hog price
forecasts are lowered for the second and third quarters, based on recent prices and
slightly weaker demand than previously expected. The broiler price forecast is lowered
based on lower expected prices during the first half of the year. The 2025 turkey price is
lowered on recent prices and weaker demand. Egg price forecasts are reduced on latest
prices showing a downward turn, as market demand slows after several weeks of
increasing prices in response to HPAI-related reductions in production.
The milk production forecast for 2025 is reduced on lower expected output per cow more
than offsetting slightly higher cow inventories. Imports are unchanged on a fat basis and
reduced on a skim-solids basis. Exports are lowered on a fat basis, primarily due to lower
cheese exports. On a skim-solids basis, exports are lowered due to lower expected
shipments of cheese, dry skim milk products, and lactose. Domestic use is increased on
both a fat and skim-solids basis.
Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey price forecasts are all lowered on
recent prices. The Class III price is lowered on the lower price expectations for cheese
and whey. The Class IV price is also reduced due to lower butter and NDM prices. The all
milk price estimate for 2025 is lowered to $21.60 per cwt.
WASDE-658-5
COTTON: There are no changes to this month’s 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet. The
2024/25 season average upland farm price projection is reduced to 63 cents per pound.
For the 2024/25 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, and trade are
increased while ending stocks are reduced this month. Beginning stocks are unchanged.
Higher production for China more than offsets reductions for Pakistan and Argentina.
Consumption is raised for Pakistan, Bangladesh and Egypt, more than offsetting small
changes elsewhere. Exports by Brazil and Turkey are increased, exceeding reductions
for Australia and Egypt. Imports by China are lowered but are more than offset by
increases for Pakistan, Bangladesh and Egypt. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are lowered
80,000 bales.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
APPROVED B
