World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

WHEAT: The 2024/25 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is for slightly higher domestic
use that leads to lower ending stocks. Food use is raised 4 million bushels to 970 million, as
wheat flour grind during the October-December quarter was up 2 percent from last year as
indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report. Projected ending stocks decrease 4
million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm
price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly larger supplies and higher consumption
but lower trade and ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.6 million tons to 1,061.3 million,
primarily on higher production for Kazakhstan and Argentina. Global consumption is
increased 1.8 million tons to 803.7 million on higher feed and residual use for the EU,
Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine. World trade declines 3.0 million tons to 209.0 million with
export reductions for the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. The largest import
change is a decrease for China of 2.5 million tons to 8.0 million on a continued sluggish
import pace. These would be their lowest imports in five years and China was the leading
world wheat importer last year at 13.6 million tons. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are
lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 million, on a reduction for China that is only partly offset by
increases for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged
from last month. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per
bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion.
This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, trade, and ending
stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil.
Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during
January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central
growing areas. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is reduced as slow second-crop
planting progress in the Center-West lowers yield prospects.
Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include smaller projected corn exports for Brazil,
Ukraine, and South Africa. Corn imports are cut for China but raised for Vietnam and Chile.
Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced reflecting a reduction for China. Global corn ending
stocks, at 290.3 million tons, are down 3.0 million.

RICE: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. rice this month is for slightly higher supplies, increased
domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised, all on imports,
as an increase in long-grain more than offsets a reduction in medium- and short-grain. Long
grain imports are higher on a recent increase in Thailand aromatics, while medium- and
short-grain are lower on the expectation of reduced shipments from China to Puerto Rico.
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Domestic use and residual is raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 166.0 million on the higher
long-grain imports. All rice exports are reduced 4.0 million cwt to 96.0 million (all long-grain)
on the continued slow sales and shipments of rough rice to Western Hemisphere markets. All
rice ending stocks are raised 3.5 million cwt to 47.0 million, up 18 percent from last year and
are the highest stocks in ten years. The 2024/25 all rice season-average farm price is
lowered $0.20 per cwt to $15.40, as a reduction in the long-grain price more than offsets a
higher California medium- and short-grain price.
The 2024/25 global outlook this month is for fractionally lower supplies, slightly higher
consumption and trade, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are decreased 0.2 million tons
to 712.2 million, mostly on a reduction for Sri Lanka’s production. World 2024/25
consumption is raised 0.3 million tons to 530.5 million, mainly on China, due to higher
imports. Global 2024/25 trade is raised 0.4 million tons to a record 58.3 million mostly on
larger exports for India, which are increased to a near-record 22.0 million tons. Projected
2024/25 world ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million tons to 181.6 million, primarily on
reductions for India and Sri Lanka partly offset by increases for several countries, including
the United States.

OILSEEDS: U.S. 2024/25 soybean supply and use projections are unchanged this month.
The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from
last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents
per pound, respectively.
Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, higher use, and
lower ending stocks. Production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent
heat and dryness during January. Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 169.0 million
tons. Beneficial weather in the Center-West is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather
in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields.
Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable
crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date.
Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower
supplies. With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks are reduced 4.0
million tons to 124.3 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is decreased by 101,129 short tons, raw value
(STRV) to 14.393 million on decreases in production and imports greater than increased
beginning stocks of 6,384. Cane sugar production in Florida is decreased by 55,131 STRV to
1.997 million on processors’ reporting of lower sucrose recovery. Cane sugar in Louisiana is
increased 6,001 STRV on final season production reported by processors. Beet sugar
production is increased 15,065 STRV on more sugar produced from desugared molasses
and a small increase in sucrose recovery only marginally reduced by an increase in beet pile
shrink reported by processors. TRQ imports are decreased by 95,862 STRV on an FAS
survey of all countries accorded export access into the U.S. sugar market. Total TRQ shortfall
is projected at 189,922 STRV. A partial offset results from high-tier tariff/Other imports being
increased by 22,414 STRV from Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data through the first
week of February, above what was expected for the period last month.
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Deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12.275 million on lower
recent period deliveries than originally projected. The net effect on ending stocks is a
decrease of 26,129 STRV to 1,912,685 for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.33 percent.
Sugar production in Mexico is projected at 4.859 metric tons (MT). This is a decrease from
last month’s 5.094 million, primarily on lower sucrose recovery and lower area harvested
than projected last month. The gap between area harvested and the forecast by
CONADESUCA has been growing for each successive week and stands at 59,872 hectares
as of week 18 (area harvested – 210,667 hectares vs CONADESUCA projection of 270,539).
Total imports are projected at 125,000 MT. This sugar was contracted for in 2023/24 but only
now reaching importers in Mexico. Deliveries into the IMMEX program are decreased 47,170
MT on the increased use of HFCS by IMMEX manufactures of sweetener-containing
products. With a small decrease in ending stocks, exports are decreased by 158,334 MT to
856,926. Exports under license to the United States are unchanged at 531,409 MT.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use estimates
for 2024 are adjusted to reflect December production, ending stock, and trade data.
For 2025, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. On February 1, 2025, the
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced the resumption of cattle
imports from Mexico through approved facilities and newly implemented protocols to mitigate
the spread of New World Screwworm. Additionally, the USDA’s January Cattle report
estimated a larger calf crop for 2024 and a smaller decline in cattle outside feedlots than
previously expected. As a result, higher placements are expected for the year and slaughter
is raised, primarily in the second half of the year. Dressed weights are also raised. Pork
production is raised as higher weights throughout the year more than offset the slower rate of
slaughter expected in the first quarter. Broiler production is unchanged, with an expected
slower rate of slaughter in the first quarter, in part due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
(HPAI)-related culling, offset by increased production in the third quarter. Turkey production is
also lowered on HPAI-related culling and the latest hatchery data. Egg production is reduced
in every quarter of 2025 due to HPAI-related culling reported through early February, as the
flock is expected to steadily rebuild, particularly in the second half of the year.
Beef exports for 2025 are raised on the increase in production and continued strong global
beef demand. Beef imports are unchanged. Pork exports are lowered for the second half of
the year on slower-than-previously-expected growth in several key export markets. The
broiler export forecast is lowered on recent trade data and increased global export
competition. The turkey export forecast is lowered on reduced domestic supplies.
For 2025, cattle prices are raised for all four quarters on recent prices and continued strong
beef demand. Hog prices are raised for the first quarter on recent prices. The 2025 broiler
price forecast is unchanged, as a lower forecast for the first quarter based on recent prices is
offset by raised price expectations for the second half of the year. The turkey price forecast is
lowered on recent prices and continued weakness in demand. Egg prices are raised for all
four quarters, as the flock recovers from the HPAI-related reductions reported through early
February.
Milk supply and use estimates for 2024 are adjusted to reflect December domestic and trade
data.
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For 2025, milk production is reduced due to lower expected cow inventories. On a fat basis,
domestic use is lowered as less production and lower imports tighten supplies. Fat basis
exports are lowered, as higher butter exports are more than offset by lower fluid and dry milk
and cream products. Skim-solids basis domestic use is also lowered based on the tighter
production outlook. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered on decreased exports of nonfat
dry milk (NDM) and whey.
Milk and dairy product price forecasts reflect the updated price formulas of the Federal Milk
Marketing Order, as published in the Federal Register on January 17, 2025 by the
Agricultural Marketing Service. Butter, NDM, and whey prices for 2025 are all lowered based
on recent prices. The cheese price is raised on recent prices and tight inventories from 2024
that are expected to carry into 2025. Class III and Class IV prices in 2025 are lowered. The
all milk price estimate for 2024 is raised to $22.61 per cwt based on reported data through
December. The all milk price forecast for 2025 is lowered to $22.60 per cwt.

COTTON: Changes to this month’s 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet are minimal with
domestic mill use reduced 100,000 bales and ending stocks raised by the same amount for
an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 39 percent. Production, beginning stocks, and exports are
unchanged. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price projection is reduced to 63.5
cents per pound.
In the 2024/25 world cotton balance sheet, production and ending stocks are increased while
beginning stocks are lowered this month. Global cotton consumption and trade are increased
by nominal amounts. A one-million bale increase in China’s cotton crop accounts for virtually
all the increase in world production as slightly higher production in Brazil is largely offset by
declines in Argentina and Kazakhstan. Increases in consumption for Bangladesh, Pakistan
and Vietnam are offset by declines for India and the United States. Small consumption
changes elsewhere account for the minimal global increase this month. Higher imports by
Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam are offset by lower imports by China, with small changes
elsewhere. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are raised half a million bales as the increase in world
production is partially offset by lower beginning stocks due to updates to the 2023/24 balance
sheets for China and Uzbekistan.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
SETH MEYER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE