WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies,
domestic use, and ending stocks but unchanged exports. Supplies are raised on higher
imports, increased 5 million bushels to 120 million, all on Hard Red Spring. Domestic use is
raised, all on food use, based mainly on the NASS Flour Milling Products report. Exports are
unchanged at 825 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected
2024/25 ending stocks are increased 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last
year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.60 on NASS prices
reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the
marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for larger supplies and consumption, reduced trade,
and slightly lower stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 0.7 million tons to 1,061.0
million as higher production for Kazakhstan more than offsets reductions for Argentina,
Brazil, Russia, and the EU. Kazakhstan’s production is raised 2.0 million tons to 18.0 million
on harvest results. This is the third-largest crop on record for Kazakhstan. Global
consumption is increased 0.9 million tons to 803.4 million, primarily on higher feed and
residual use for Kazakhstan with its larger production. World trade is 1.2 million tons lower at
214.7 million on reduced exports for Turkey and Kazakhstan. Projected 2024/25 global
ending stocks are lowered 0.1 million tons to 257.6 million as decreases for Argentina, China,
and Brazil are not completely offset by increases for Kazakhstan and Turkey.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production and
ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 60 million from last
month on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain
is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels. With
supply falling and no change to use, corn ending stocks are down to 1.9 billion bushels. The
season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast fractionally lower at 1.500 billion tons.
This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and
smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as
increases for Uganda, Malawi, Belarus, Mozambique, Kenya, and Cameroon are partly offset
by declines for Mexico, Turkey, and the EU. Mexico production is lowered reflecting lower
winter corn area expectations. Foreign barley production is cut, mostly reflecting a reduction
for Russia that is partly offset by an increase for Kazakhstan.
Major global trade changes include lower corn exports for Brazil and South Africa with
increases for Burma and Uganda. Corn imports are reduced for China and Malawi but raised
for Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey, and Peru. Barley exports are reduced for Russia. Foreign corn
ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases
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for Mexico, Uganda, and Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 304.1 million tons, are down
2.4 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. rice this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic
use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Exports of long-grain rice are reduced 2.0
million cwt to 74.0 million, on weaker-than-expected shipments and sales to markets in Latin
America. Medium- and short-grain exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 26.0 million, however,
on larger sales to East Asia and the Middle East. Combined, all rice exports are lowered 1.0
million cwt to 100.0 million. All rice ending stocks are increased 1.0 million cwt to 46.7 million,
up 19 percent from last year. Season-average farm prices for all classes of rice in 2024/25
are unchanged this month.
World rice supplies are raised 2.8 million tons to 713.1 million, mostly on higher production
for India. India’s production is forecast 3.0 million tons higher to 145.0 million, almost 7.2
million tons above the previous record set a year earlier. Above-average monsoon rainfall
and high relative support prices led to record planted area for the Kharif season crop as
reported in the first advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer’s Welfare.
Global 2024/25 domestic and residual use is increased 2.4 million tons to 530.5 million,
primarily on gains for India, Guinea, and China. World trade is projected at 56.9 million tons,
up 0.5 million mostly on higher exports by India that are only partly offset by lower exports for
China. Projected 2024/25 world ending stocks are 182.7 million tons, up 0.5 million, mostly
on an increase for India.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2024/25 include lower production,
exports, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.5 billion bushels,
down 121 million on reduced yields. The largest production changes are for Iowa, Illinois,
and Minnesota. Exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1.8 billion on lower supplies and
sales to date. Crush is lowered 15 million bushels to 2.4 billion, reflecting lower soybean
meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean ending stocks are lowered 80 million
bushels to 470 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per
bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $320 per short ton. The soybean oil price is
increased 1 cent to 43 cents per pound.
The global 2024/25 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower production, higher
exports, lower crush, and lower ending stocks. Global 2024/25 soybean production is
lowered 3.5 million tons to 425.4 million, mainly on lower production for the United States
and India. Production for India is lowered 0.2 million tons to 12.6 million on information from
the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) of India. Global soybean exports are raised on
higher shipments for Brazil, Canada, and Benin largely offset by lower U.S. shipments.
Imports are raised for Pakistan. Higher crush for Pakistan is more than offset by lower crush
for the United States. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 2.9 million tons to 131.7
million mainly on lower stocks for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply and use for 2023/24 are updated with final year data from SMD
and FAS. Production is increased 171,190 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on larger
than-expected production in September for beet sugar and for cane sugar in Louisiana.
Imports are decreased by 89,030 STRV mainly on a reduction in re-export imports estimated
by FAS. Deliveries for human consumption are increased 53,540 STRV to 12.354 million on
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a pickup in deliveries in September. Re-export products are reduced 31,984 based on
processors’ adjustments to earlier submitted data. Exports at 249,231 STRV are up 24,231
over last month. Ending stocks are reported by processors at 2.162 million STRV for an
ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16.87 percent.
USDA/NASS in the November Crop Production decreased 2024/25 national sugarbeet yield
to 32.7 tons/acre from 33.1 tons/acre last month. Sugarbeet production decreases by
372,000 tons to 35.201 million. NASS also decreased the sugarcane yield in Louisiana to
32.0 tons/acre from 32.2 last month. The Louisiana sugarcane crop for sugar is projected
lower at 15.846 million tons. Crop year beet sugar and Louisiana cane production are
lowered on this basis. Fiscal year production levels are reduced even more in both cases as
production levels in September counted in 2023/24 were larger than expected, as mentioned
above. Beet sugar production is projected at 5.210 million STRV, down 136,910 from last
month. With Florida cane sugar production the same as last month, national cane sugar
production is projected at 4.066 million STRV, down 81,349 from last month. Imports are
increased by 12,968 STRV mostly attributable to increased imports of high-tier raw sugar
reported by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) through the first week of November.
Deliveries for human consumption are up 50,000 to 12.350 million in line with the increase
for 2023/24. Ending stocks at 1.464 million STRV are down 323,974 for an ending stocks-to
use ratio of 11.66 percent.
For 2023/24 Mexico imports of sugar for its IMMEX program are reduced by nearly 100,000
metric tons (MT) based mostly on data made available to USDA by CONADESUCA. This
data is not available on a monthly basis but only after the marketing year is over. Deliveries
to IMMEX are decreased by a like amount. There are also fewer deliveries from domestic
production into the program. For 2024/25 imports are increased by 70,755 MT. The FAS
Mexico City Post reports that this sugar was booked in 2023/24 but has yet to arrive. Exports
are residually projected at 1.006 million MT. Exports under license to the United States are
unchanged at 338,023 MT. Exports not under license at 667,803 MT are up 73,829 over last
month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry
production is raised from last month with higher beef, broiler, and turkey production
forecasts, partially offset by lower pork production. Beef production is raised, as higher
dressed weights and cow slaughter more than offset lower expected steer and heifer
slaughter. The pork production forecast is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter in the fourth
quarter and slightly lighter dressed weights. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are
raised based on production data reported through the third quarter. Egg production is
lowered due to reductions of the laying flock as a result of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
(HPAI)-related culling through early November.
For 2025, the beef production forecast is raised due to heavier expected dressed weights
and higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially stemming from higher-than
previously-expected placements during the second half of 2024. The pork production
forecast is lowered due to reduced first-quarter slaughter and lower dressed weights. Broiler
production is raised based on recent hatchery data that suggests higher production during
the first quarter of 2025. Turkey production is unchanged from last month. Egg production is
reduced for the first half of the year as the laying flock continues to recover from October
2024 laying flock losses.
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The beef import forecast for 2024 is raised on recent trade data and stronger than expected
imports from Oceania and South America during the fourth quarter. For 2025, beef imports
are raised based on continued strong demand for processing beef. The beef export forecast
for 2024 is raised based on reported data through September. For 2025, the forecast is
raised based on relatively higher expected global demand. The pork export forecast for 2024
is raised slightly based on reported data through September. For 2025, the forecast is
lowered based on pork production forecast reductions and relatively weaker expected
demand in several key markets during the first half of the year. The broiler export forecast for
2024 is lowered, as higher reported exports for the third quarter are more than offset by
lower expected exports for the fourth quarter. The lower fourth quarter outlook is based on
expected price competition from global exporters, particularly Brazil. The 2025 export broiler
forecast is also reduced. Turkey exports in 2024 are reduced slightly based on reported data
through the third quarter. The turkey export forecast for 2025 is unchanged.
The cattle price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 is raised based on recent prices and
the continued strength in beef demand. The increase is carried into 2025. The 2024 hog
price forecast is raised based on recent prices and strong pork demand. The 2025 forecast is
also raised based on tighter pork supplies supporting prices in the first half of 2025. The
2024 broiler price forecast is raised, based on recent prices. Higher prices are expected to
carry into the first quarter of 2025, supported by higher cattle and hog prices. The turkey
price forecast for 2024 is raised on recent prices, with the increases carried into the first and
second quarter of 2025. Egg prices for 2024 are raised based on recent prices and tight
supplies. For 2025, egg price forecasts are raised in the first and second quarter as supplies
recover.
The milk production forecast for 2024 is raised from the previous month. Based on the most
recent Milk Production report, lower reported milk cow numbers for the third quarter of 2024
were more than offset by higher output per cow. The milk forecast for 2025 is unchanged.
The import forecasts for 2024 are unchanged, both on a fat basis and a skim-solids basis.
The export forecast for 2024 is unchanged on a fat basis. On a skim-solids basis, the export
forecast is raised on higher expected shipments of lactose. For 2025, imports are unchanged
on a skim-solids basis but raised on a fat basis due to higher expected shipments of butter
and cheese. The forecast for exports on a fat basis is raised due to higher cheese and
butterfat-containing products. Skim-solids exports are also raised on higher whey-containing
products and dry skim milk products.
The butter price forecast is reduced for 2024, as prices have continued to fall from the
relatively high levels they maintained for much of the year through late-September. The
cheese price forecast for 2024 is unchanged. Both nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey price
forecasts are raised due to strong demand for both sets of products. For 2025, butter price
forecasts are lowered due to relatively higher inventories heading into the 2024 holiday
season. The cheese price forecast is raised, based on higher prices and tight inventories in
late 2024. Whey and NDM price forecasts for 2025 are both raised based on stronger
domestic and international demand. The Class III price forecast is unchanged for 2024. The
Class IV price forecast is lowered, with lower butter prices more than offsetting higher NDM.
The all milk price for 2024 is lowered to $22.75 per cwt. For 2025, the Class III price is raised
on higher cheese and whey price outlooks. The Class IV price is lowered due to lower butter
prices offsetting higher NDM. The all milk price forecast for 2025 is raised to $22.85 per cwt.
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COTTON: The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows marginally lower production,
lower exports, and higher ending stocks. NASS revised its estimate for U.S. all-cotton
production downward by 10,000 bales to just below 14.2 million in its November Crop
Production report. The Georgia crop is raised about 200,000 bales offset by a similar
reduction in the Texas crop with assorted small changes elsewhere. The national all-cotton
yield estimate is unchanged from last month at 789 pounds per harvested acre. With global
consumption and imports reduced, U.S. exports are reduced 200,000 bales to 11.3 million.
Ending stocks are raised 200,000 bales to 4.3 million, for a stocks-to-use ratio of about 33
percent. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is unchanged at 66 cents per
pound. There are no revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet.
World production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and trade are all reduced in
the 2024/25 global balance sheet. Production is lowered by 460,000 bales with the largest
reductions for Pakistan and Turkmenistan. Consumption is reduced by 515,000 bales,
primarily due to decreases for Turkey and Pakistan. Ending stocks are lowered by 574,000
bales with large reductions for India, Turkmenistan, and Pakistan more than offsetting
increases for the United States and Uzbekistan. Reduced imports by Turkey, offset to a
degree by higher imports by Uzbekistan and Egypt, lead to a 295,000-bale reduction in world
trade. In the 2023/24 global balance sheet, historical revisions to production result in lower
ending stocks.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
SETH MEYER
