Note: This report presents USDA’s initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for 2024/25. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2025 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products. Due to spring planting still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Forecasts for U.S. winter wheat area, yield, and production are from the May 10 Crop Production report. For other U.S. crops, the March 28 Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used to project 2024/25 harvested acreage and yield are noted in each table.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, modestly higher domestic use,
increased exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 6 percent from 2023/24 on larger
carry-in stocks and production. All wheat production is projected at 1,858 million bushels, up 3
percent from last year on higher harvested acreage and yields. The all wheat yield is projected at
48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. The first 2024 NASS survey-based winter wheat production
forecast of 1,278 million bushels is up 2 percent from 2023 on increased Hard Red Winter and White
Winter production more than offsetting lower Soft Red Winter production. Total 2024/25 domestic use
is projected up 1 percent, primarily on higher feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 775
million bushels, up 55 million from the revised 2023/24 exports, which remain at a 52-year low.
Increased U.S. exportable supplies and more competitive prices are expected to result in higher
exports. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are 11 percent above last year at 766 million bushels, the
highest level in four years. The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price (SAFP) is $6.00 per
bushel, down $1.10 from last year’s SAFP on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly lower supplies, increased consumption, modestly
higher trade, and reduced stocks. Supplies are projected to decrease 2.2 million tons to 1,056.0
million with production projected at a record 798.2 million tons, but lower carry-in stocks for several
countries, most notably China and Russia, more than offset higher global production. Increased
output for India, China, Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, and the United States is expected to more
than offset reductions for Russia, the United Kingdom, the EU, and Ukraine. Projected 2024/25 world
consumption is raised 2.0 million tons to a record 802.4 million as food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use
is expected to continue growing, while feed and residual use is projected lower as feed grains are
anticipated to be more competitively priced than wheat. India is the largest FSI increase while China
is the largest feed and residual reduction.
Projected 2024/25 global trade is 216.0 million tons, up 0.4 million from last year but below the
2022/23 record of 220.7 million. Russia is projected to remain the leading 2024/25 world wheat
exporter at 52.0 million tons, though down from 2023/24. Exports are projected higher for Australia,
Argentina, the United States, Kazakhstan, and Canada, but lower for Ukraine, the EU, and Turkey.
Projected 2024/25 world ending stocks are 4.2 million tons, down from last year at 253.6 million tons,
the lowest since 2015/16. Russia and the EU account for the largest reductions, which are partially
offset by increases for the United States and India.
COARSE GRAINS: The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and
exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3 percent
from last year’s record as a decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield. The yield
projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting
progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 time period. With
WASDE-648-2 higher beginning stocks, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since
2017/18. Total U.S. corn use for 2024/25 is forecast to rise just under 1 percent relative to a year ago on
higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels.
Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago, based on expectations of essentially flat
motor gasoline consumption. Feed and residual use is projected higher on larger supplies and lower
expected prices. U.S. corn exports for 2024/25 are forecast to rise 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion, supported by a combined 5.4-million-ton reduction in exports for Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine. The United
States is projected to be the world’s largest exporter for the second consecutive year, with an
expected increase in global market share.
With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2024/25 ending stocks are up 80 million bushels
from last year and, if realized, would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018/19. Stocks would
represent 14.2 percent of use, up from 13.7 percent the prior year and the highest since 2019/20.
The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, down 25 cents from 2023/24.
The 2024/25 global coarse grain outlook is for record production and use, and fractionally lower
ending stocks. World corn production is forecast to decline from the prior year’s record to 1.220 billion
metric tons, with the largest declines for the United States, Ukraine, Zambia, Argentina, Malawi,
Mozambique, and Turkey. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for Brazil, the EU, China, South
Africa, and Mexico. Lower area expectations drive a decline in corn production for Argentina, in
contrast to Brazil where production is forecast higher on expanded area. Ukraine corn production is
expected to be down on reductions to both area and yield. Corn crop prospects for Russia are down
as higher area is more than offset by a decline in yield. World barley, sorghum, oats, millet, mixed
grain, and rye production are all forecast higher than a year ago.
World corn use is expected to rise less than 1 percent to a record 1.221 billion metric tons, with
foreign consumption increasing modestly. World corn imports are forecast to fall just under 1 percent,
driven by declines for several countries, including the EU, Canada, Iraq, and Venezuela. Partly
offsetting are increases for Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Egypt, and Iran.
Global corn ending stocks for 2024/25 are down 0.8 million tons to 312.3 million. Stocks in the major
exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are projected down
slightly, reflecting higher stocks in the United States mostly offset by declines for Brazil and Ukraine.
For China, total coarse grain imports for 2024/25 are forecast at 41.5 million tons, up marginally from
a year ago. Despite lower internal market prices for energy feedstuffs, expectations are for China’s
prices to remain higher than the world market. Corn imports are projected unchanged at 23.0 million
tons, barley imports are down 0.2 million to 10.0 million, and sorghum is up 0.5 million to 8.0 million.
RICE: The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. rice is for larger supplies, exports, domestic use, and ending
stocks. Total supplies are projected at 305.5 million cwt, up 5 percent from 2023/24 on higher
production, beginning stocks, and imports. All rice production is projected at 220.2 million cwt, up 1
percent from the previous year on increased harvested area and slightly lower expected yields. The
projected all rice yield is 7,635 pounds per acre, down 14 pounds from last year. Total imports are
forecast at a record 44.5 million cwt, up 1.2 million from last year. Total domestic and residual use is
projected higher at 160.0 million cwt, reflecting greater supplies, and would be the largest on record.
Total exports are projected at 100.0 million cwt, up 6.0 million cwt from 2023/24 on larger supplies
and reduced U.S. prices. All rice 2024/25 ending stocks are projected at 45.5 million cwt, up 12
percent from 2023/24. The 2024/25 all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $15.60
per cwt, down from the 2023/24 SAFP forecast of $18.00.
WASDE-648-3
The global rice outlook for 2024/25 is for rising supplies, trade, consumption, and ending stocks.
Supplies increase year to year on record production at 527.6 million tons that more than offsets lower
beginning stocks. The record global crop is primarily driven by increases for India, China,
Bangladesh, and Indonesia. Global consumption is projected at a record 526.4 million tons, mostly on
higher use by India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Bangladesh offsetting a reduction for China. With
production and consumption gains projected in many of the same countries, global trade is forecast
up only slightly at 53.8 million tons, still lower than levels of trade before India first imposed
restrictions on rice exports in 2022. India remains the leading exporter at 18.0 million tons, 2.0 million
higher than in 2023/24 but below its record volume of 22.0 million tons in 2021/22, as ongoing export
restrictions are expected to limit shipments. Projected 2024/25 world ending stocks are 176.1 million
tons, up 1.2 million from a year earlier and would be the first increase in global stocks since 2020/21.
OILSEEDS: The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and
ending stocks compared with 2023/24. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285
million on higher area and trend yield. With higher beginning stocks and production, soybean
supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, up 8 percent from 2023/24. Total U.S. oilseed production
is projected at 131.2 million tons, up 8.9 million from 2023/24 on higher soybean, cottonseed, and
peanut production partly offset by lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed.
To note, the methodology for soybean planting seed is revised back to 2001/02 to reflect changes in
management practices and technology resulting in lower seed use per acre over time. More
information on this change will be released in ERS’ Oil Crops Outlook on May 14, 2024.
U.S. soybean crush for 2024/25 is projected at 2.43 billion bushels, up 125 million from the 2023/24
forecast on higher demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, projected to increase 1.0 billion
pounds to 14.0 billion. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 3 percent from
2023/24 on increased pork and poultry production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 17.3
million short tons, indicating a 21 percent share of global trade, compared to the prior 5-year average
of 19 percent.
U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.83 billion bushels, up 125 million from 2023/24 with higher
exports this fall due to a lower Brazilian 2024 harvest. With strong seasonal exports after harvest
followed by pressure from larger South American production in 2025, the U.S. share of global exports
is forecast at 28 percent, down from the prior 5-year average of 32 percent.
U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up 105 million from last year.
The 2024/25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel compared with
$12.55 per bushel in 2023/24. The soybean meal price is forecast at $330 per short ton, down $50.
The soybean oil price is forecast at 42 cents per pound, down 6 cents from 2023/24.
The 2024/25 global oilseed outlook shows higher production, crush, exports, and ending stocks
compared with 2023/24. Global production is rising 28.9 million tons to 687.1 million mainly on higher
soybean production for South America, the United States, and South Africa. Brazil’s soybean
production is forecast at 169.0 million tons, up from the revised 2023/24 crop of 154.0 million, which
was reduced due to flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. Argentina’s soybean output is forecast at 51.0
million tons for 2024/25. Global production of high-oil content seeds (rapeseed and sunflowerseed) is
nearly flat compared to the prior year as higher sunflowerseed production for the EU and rapeseed
production for Canada and Australia is mostly offset by lower rapeseed production for the EU,
Ukraine, India, and the UK.
Global 2024/25 oilseed crush is growing 17.3 million tons to 560.8 million from 2023/24, with most of
the growth for soybeans (15.9 million) mainly for Argentina, China, Pakistan, and the United States.
Global sunflowerseed and rapeseed crush is flat on stable available supplies. Soybean meal exports
account for the majority of meal export growth. Lower year-over-year exports of sunflowerseed oil
and rapeseed oil are mostly offset by growth in soybean, palm, and palm kernel oil shipments.
WASDE-648-4
Global soybean exports for 2024/25 are increasing 4 percent from last marketing year mainly on
higher soybean exports for the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Soybean imports are
higher for China, Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, Iran, and Vietnam. China’s soybean imports are rising 4.0
million tons to 109.0 million on larger global supplies and lower prices. Global 2024/25 soybean
ending stocks are projected up 16.7 million tons to 128.5 million, with most of the increase for Brazil,
Argentina, the United States, and China.
SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.649 million metric tons (MT), an increase of
76,541 over last month. Area harvested is unchanged at 727,116 hectares (ha) but sugarcane yield is
increased to 62.73 MT/ha and sucrose recovery is increased to 10.19 percent on interim analysis
from CONADESUCA production data through April 27. There remains significant downside risk on
area that may not be harvested due to inadequate sugar content in the remaining sugarcane. The low
polarity sugar share of total production has been trending downward and is estimated at 6.50
percent, down from 7.00 percent last month. Assuming that all projected low polarity sugar is
exported to the U.S. market and constitutes 71 percent of the total exported, exports to the United
States are projected at 425,607 MT, a very slight decrease from last month.
Mexico production for 2024/25 is projected at 5.189 million MT. Yield and recovery are expected to
be closer to historical trend and area harvested will be more than in 2023/24 but likely far below the
800,000-hectare level initially forecast for recent years. Exports to the United States are projected at
1.024 million on the assumption that Mexico authorities expect that the U.S. additional specialty TRQ
will be set no lower than the level of 2023/24 before the July WASDE when the Department of
Commerce first calculates U.S. Needs for 2024/25. Deliveries for consumption are projected at 4.236
million MT on population growth. Deliveries for IMMEX are the same as in 2023/24. Ending stocks
are projected at 900,181 MT to cover use in 2025/26 for the 2.3 months before the start of sugar
production. Imports are residually projected at 524,814 MT, with 499,814 MT for consumption and
25,000 MT for IMMEX.
U.S. beet sugar production for 2023/24 is decreased 49,192 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 5.095
million. Production in Red River Valley will continue for another month with piled sugarbeets under
stress. Beet pile shrink is still at 9.0 percent, higher than processors’ estimates, but sucrose recovery
is reduced to 14.75 percent as increased impurities in sliced beets have reduced extraction
effectiveness. Beet sugar production for 2024/25 is projected at 5.111 million STRV. Area planted is
1.129 million acres from Prospective Plantings. National sugarbeet yield is projected at a robust
31.52 tons/acre due to a high proportion of sugarbeets planted as of May 5. Other production
parameters are projected on the basis of recent 5-year averages. Cane sugar production in Florida
for 2023/24 is decreased 35,264 STRV on processors’ reporting. Cane sugar production for 2024/25
is projected at 4.121 million STRV based on recent yield trends under the assumption of normal
weather and some area expansion in Louisiana. Imports for 2023/24 are increased 22,597 STRV on
a decrease in TRQ shortfall due to more sugar expected to enter from the Philippines. TRQ imports
for 2024/25 are projected 1.415 million STRV consistent with minimum access WTO bindings and
with allocations set for various FTAs. Re-export imports are projected at 200,000 STRV and high-tier
tariff imports of refined sugar are projected at 216,000 STRV. High-tier tariff raw sugar imports are
projected at zero. Imports from Mexico are expected to be 1.197 million STRV. Deliveries for human
consumption for 2023/24 are reduced 100,000 STRV on the pace to date to 12.350 million. This
estimate is carried over to the level projected for 2024/25. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at
1.464 million STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.66 percent.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2025 is
forecast to be lower than 2024. Beef production is forecast lower as tighter cattle supplies and
increased heifer and cow retention are expected to result in lower slaughter of both fed and non-fed
cattle. Pork production is forecast to increase as growth in pigs per litter will more than offset fewer
expected farrowings. Broiler production is expected to increase as lower feed costs and tighter red
meat supplies support steady growth. Turkey production is forecast to increase, as it recovers from
WASDE-648-5
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culls. Egg production is forecast higher on flock
rebuilding.
Total red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2024 are reduced from last month, with lower
broiler, turkey, and pork forecasts offset slightly by higher beef production. Beef production is raised
on higher cattle slaughter in the second half of the year and heavier dressed weights. Pork
production is lower as higher slaughter in the first half of the year is more than offset by lighter
expected dressed weights for the duration of 2024. Broiler production is lower based on slaughter
data through the first quarter, with the forecast for the remainder of the year unchanged. Turkey
production is lowered reflecting slaughter as well as hatchery data and expectations that weaker
returns will put downward pressure on production for the second half of the year. Egg production is
up slightly reflecting official data.
For 2025, beef exports are forecast lower than 2024 as tight domestic supplies limit competitiveness.
Beef imports are higher due to tight beef domestic supplies, particularly for processing-grade beef.
Pork exports are forecast higher on improved price competitiveness and increased demand in several
key markets. Broiler exports are higher due to greater supplies, but growth is expected to be
constrained by competition from other major exporters. Turkey exports are forecast to be slightly
higher as supplies increase.
For 2024, the beef export forecast is raised from last month on data reported through the first quarter.
Beef imports are lowered slightly on first-quarter data, but the forecasts for the remaining quarters are
unchanged. Pork exports are lowered based on recent trade data and slower-than-expected demand
growth in several key markets. Broiler exports are lowered on recent data and increased price
competition from major exporters.
For 2025, cattle prices are above 2024 on tighter cattle and beef supplies. Hog prices are lower than
2024 on increased expected hog supplies. Broiler prices are forecast slightly lower due to increased
production. Turkey prices are higher. The egg price is below 2024 with larger expected supplies.
Cattle prices in 2024 are lowered on recent data and a more rapid pace of marketing in the second
half of the year. Hog prices are lowered on weaker-than-expected demand in the second half of the
year. Broiler and turkey prices are lowered on recent data and softer expected demand. Egg prices
are lowered on recent data and continued rebuilding of table egg inventories after outbreaks of HPAI
in late-2023 and early-2024.
Milk production in 2025 is forecast to increase from 2024, driven by higher milk per cow and an
expanding milk cow herd. With increases in a number of products, commercial exports are expected
to grow on both a fat and skim-solids basis. Imports are forecast lower, both on a fat and skim-solids
basis. Domestic use is forecast to increase on a fat and skim-solids basis. Stocks are forecast lower
on both a fat and skim-solids basis. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are lower, as prices for
cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey are all expected to decline due to larger milk
supplies. The all milk price is forecast at $20.90 per cwt.
The 2024 milk production forecast is raised based on an increase in dairy cows and more rapid
growth in output per cow. On both a fat and skim-solids basis, imports are raised and exports are
lowered. Domestic use is higher on both a fat and skim-solids basis, as well. The cheese price is
raised, but the whey price is lowered. The butter price forecast is raised, while the NDM price is
lowered. The Class III price forecast is raised, as higher cheese prices more than offset the lower
whey. The Class IV price forecast is lower, as higher butter prices are more than offset by the lower
NDM. The all milk price forecast for 2024 is raised to $21.20 per cwt.
WASDE-648-6
INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES
Note: The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Board’s analysts chair the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report.
Wheat: Mark Simone, ICEC Chair, WAOB, mark.simone@usda.gov
Andrew Sowell, ERS; Rachel Trego, FAS; Bruce McWilliams, FPAC.
Rice: Mark Simone, ICEC Chair, WAOB, mark.simone@usda.gov
Nathan Childs, ERS; Rachel Trego, FAS; Kent Lanclos, FPAC.
Feed Grains: Michael Jewison, ICEC Chair, WAOB, michael.jewison2@usda.gov
Aaron Ates, ERS; Kevin Min, FAS; Jacob Vuillemin, FPAC.
Oilseeds: Joanna Hitchner, ICEC Chair, WAOB, joanna.hitchner@usda.gov
Maria Bukowski, ERS; Agata Kingsbury, FAS; Gustavo Ferreira, FPAC.
Cotton: Hunter Colby, ICEC Chair (Acting), WAOB, hunter.colby@usda.gov
Leslie Meyer, ERS; Graham Soley, FAS; Kent Lanclos, FPAC.
Sugar: Stephen Haley, ICEC Chair, WAOB, stephen.haley2@usda.gov
Vida Abadam, ERS; Souleymane Diaby, FAS; Barbara Fecso, FPAC.
Meat Animals: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, shayle.shagam@usda.gov
Mildred Haley, ERS; Mason Grahame, FAS; Jacob Vuillemin, FPAC.
Poultry: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, shayle.shagam@usda.gov
Peyton Ferrier, AMS; Grace Grossen, ERS; Claire Mezoughem, FAS.
Dairy: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, shayle.shagam@usda.gov
Jessica Richard, AMS; Adriana Valcu-Lisman, ERS; Jeffery Dwyer, FAS.
In 2024 the WASDE report will be released on Jun 12, Jul 12, Aug 12,
Sep 12, Oct 11, Nov 8, and Dec 10.
WASDE-648-7
