World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Office of the
Chief Economist
Agricultural Marketing Service
Farm Service Agency
Economic Research Service
Foreign Agricultural Service

WASDE – 647 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board April 11, 2024

WHEAT: This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is for lower
supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies
are tightened with a reduction in projected imports by 5 million bushels to 140 million on a
slower-than-expected import pace, primarily for Hard Red Winter. Domestic consumption
is forecast down on lower-than-expected implied feed and residual use in the second and
third quarters based on the latest NASS Grain Stocks report. As a result, annual feed and
residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 90 million. Projected 2023/24 ending stocks
are raised 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The seasonaverage farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10.
The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for larger supplies, consumption, and
exports and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.6 million tons to 1,058.4 million
on increased production estimates for the EU, Moldova, and Pakistan. The world
consumption forecast is increased 1.1 million tons to 800.1 million. Food, Seed, and
Industrial use in India is increased 2.0 million tons this month to 106.2 million. The latest
monthly stocks reports issued by the Food Corporation of India shows continued open
market sales as the Government of India attempts to limit food price inflation ahead of
elections, which begin later this month. Global feed and residual use is forecast lower on
reductions for Russia and the United States that are only partly offset by increased use
for the EU.
Projected 2023/24 global trade is raised 1.3 million tons to 213.5 million, mostly on higher
export forecasts for Russia and Ukraine that are only partly offset by a reduction for the
European Union. Russia’s export forecast is raised 1.0 million tons to 52.0 million, as
shipments have continued at a robust pace. Ukraine exports are raised, up 1.5 million
tons to 17.5 million as competitive prices and expanded operating hours at the ports of
Odessa this year allow trade to increase. EU exports, however, are reduced 2.0 million
tons to 34.5 million as competition from the Black Sea has restrained their exports to
date. Projected 2023/24 world ending stocks are down 0.6 million tons to 258.3 million as
lower stocks for India and Ukraine are only partly offset by increases for Algeria and the
EU. If realized, global stocks for 2023/24 would be five percent below last year and the
lowest since 2015/16.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for
ethanol and feed and residual use and smaller ending stocks. Corn used for ethanol is
raised 25 million bushels to 5.4 billion based on data through February from the Grain
Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as
reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of March. Feed and
residual use is increased 25 million to 5.7 billion based on indicated disappearance
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during the December-February quarter. With no supply changes and use rising, ending
stocks are lowered 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The season-average farm
price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.3 million tons lower to 1,505.1
million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for declines in production, trade, and
ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast lower as cuts for South Africa,
Argentina, Mexico, and Moldova are partially offset by increases for the EU and the
Philippines. Corn production is cut for South Africa as a continuation of drought during
March further reduces yield prospects. Argentina and Mexico are both lowered reflecting
a decline in yield expectations. EU corn production is raised mostly reflecting increases
for Hungary, Poland, Spain, and France that are partly offset by declines for Romania,
Slovakia, and Bulgaria. Foreign barley production is virtually unchanged.
Major global trade changes for 2023/24 include lower forecast corn exports for South
Africa, India, and Tanzania but an increase for Russia. Corn imports are lowered for the
EU, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Cuba, and Kenya but raised for Mexico. Barley
imports are raised for China but lowered for Saudi Arabia and Algeria. Foreign corn
ending stocks are essentially unchanged, mostly reflecting declines for Mexico and South
Africa that are offset by small increases for several countries. Global corn ending stocks,
at 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last month.

RICE: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. rice this month is for unchanged supplies, reduced
domestic use, higher exports, and increased ending stocks. Total domestic and residual
use is lowered 5.0 million cwt to 157.0 million with all of the decline for long-grain. This is
the result of a reduction in the December-February quarter in implied disappearance
compared to a year earlier as indicated in the latest NASS Rice Stocks report. Total
exports are raised 3.0 million cwt to 91.0 million as higher long-grain exports are partially
offset by a reduction in medium- and short-grain. Long-grain exports, now at 70.0 million
cwt, would be the highest since 2016/17 despite current long-grain prices significantly
higher than 2016/17. Sustained higher sales and shipments of long-grain rough rice to
Mexico, Central America, Venezuela, and Colombia drive this increase. Despite larger
exports, the reduction in domestic and residual use more than offsets the export increase
resulting in higher ending stocks, up 2.0 million cwt to 43.5 million. The season-average
price for all rice is unchanged at $18.80 per cwt with prices by class also unchanged.
The 2023/24 global outlook this month is for larger supplies, lower consumption, modestly
higher trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.9 million tons to 693.5
million, primarily on higher beginning stocks for Cambodia and Burma. World 2023/24
consumption is lowered 1.5 million tons to a still record 521.3 million, largely on a reduction
for China. India’s export restrictions on broken rice and fewer Chinese auctions of old-crop
rice are factors causing this reduction. Global 2023/24 trade is raised 0.4 million tons to
52.9 million on higher exports for Burma, Cambodia, Vietnam, and the United States more
than offsetting lower China exports. Projected world ending stocks are raised 2.5 million
tons to 172.2 million primarily on increases for China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.

OILSEEDS: The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 includes lower
imports, residual, and exports, and higher ending stocks. Soybean trade is reduced on
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pace to date and expectations for future shipments. With the trade changes and slightly
lower residual, soybean ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 340 million. The
U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down
10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents
per pound, respectively.
Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, exports,
crush, and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Soybean production is lowered mainly for
South Africa on drought conditions during the season, which negatively impacted yield
potential. Partly offsetting is higher production for Paraguay, up 0.2 million tons to 10.5
million.
Global soybean exports are lowered 0.5 million tons to 173.1 million mainly on lower
exports for the United States and South Africa partly offset by higher shipments for
Paraguay. Imports are lowered for Indonesia, Russia, Algeria, and the United States, but
raised for the EU. Global soybean ending stocks are nearly unchanged with higher stocks
for the United States offset by lower stocks for Canada, Iran, and Russia.

SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.572 million metric tons (MT), a
decrease of 175,090 from last month and 651,856 lower than last year. Area harvested is
running over 20,000 hectares below the level forecast by CONADESUCA resulting in the
current USDA projection of 727,116 hectares. Interim analysis based on the
CONADESUCA production data through March 30 supports an increase in sugarcane
yield from last month to 62.25 MT/hectare and also in sucrose recovery to 10.10 percent.
However, the area reduction more than offsets the yield and recovery increases to reach
this month’s projection of sugar production. Production of low polarity sugar is reduced by
107,206 MT to 320,067 as producers have hastened the trend toward more profitable
estandar sugar for the domestic market at the expense of less low polarity sugar. The low
polarity sugar share of total production is at 7 percent, down from 9 percent last month.
Assuming that all projected low polarity sugar is exported to the U.S. market and like last
year constitutes 75 percent of the total exported, exports to the United States are
projected at 426,757 MT, a decrease of 142,941.
On April 5, the Secretaría de Economía in Mexico announced that it would temporarily
accept imports of sugar intended for use in the IMMEX program until August 31 with each
shipment requiring its approval. This effectively means that imports from the United
States under USDA’s re-export import program can be shipped duty-free into Mexico only
for use in IMMEX. Thus, 50,000-MT worth of Mexico production for IMMEX can be
redirected to deliveries for human consumption. With more net sugar available, IMMEX is
projected 25,000 MT higher at 425,000 MT. Given that Mexico has imported 435,000 MT
of high-tier tariff sugar for consumption through March 31, USDA projects imports in the
pipeline at 40,000 MT, implying imports for consumption at 475,000 MT. Total imports are,
therefore, at 575,000 MT. Exports to other countries are residually projected at 43,914
MT.
U.S. beet sugar production for 2023/24 is decreased by 27,340 short tons, raw value
(STRV) to 5.144 million on lower forecast sucrose recovery. Beet pile shrink is
unchanged at 9 percent. Cane sugar production is unchanged. TRQ imports are up
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25,086 STRV to 1.775 million on higher imports expected from Argentina and Panama.
TRQ shortfall falls by that same amount to 66,690 STRV. Imports from Mexico decrease
by 167,020 STRV to 498,644 but are largely offset by an increase of high-tier tariff
imports of 140,000 STRV (all raw sugar) to bring the total to 855,000. This pace-to-date
adjustment reflects that imports for the remaining 6 months of the fiscal year will be close
to imports for the first 6 months. Exports are increased by 37,634 STRV to 197,634 as
increased program exports more than offset a reduction of other sugar exports to Mexico.
Deliveries for consumption are unchanged. Deliveries for human consumption were low
in February due to a likely underreporting of direct consumption imports in February that
will see an offsetting expansion in March. Ending stocks are projected at 1.722 million
STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.50 percent.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: For 2024, red meat and poultry production is
raised from last month. Beef production is raised due to heavier weights and higher
slaughter. Pork production is raised on higher hog slaughter more than offsetting a slight
decline in weights. The current outlook for hog slaughter in 2024 reflects the information
provided in the March 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed higher pig crops
than previously reported for 2023 and continued strong growth in pigs per litter in early
2024. Broiler production is raised based on recent production and hatchery data, as well
as a continuing trend of heavier bird weights. Turkey production is raised for the first
quarter on recent production and hatchery data. Egg production is lowered based on
recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial laying
flocks.
Beef exports are raised for 2024 based on recent trade data. Pork exports are also raised
based on strong exports reported through the first two months of the year. Larger U.S.
pork supplies will support exports. Broiler exports are lowered based on recent trade data
and expectations that higher prices may affect trade to a number of price sensitive
markets. Turkey exports are unchanged. Egg exports are raised slightly based on recent
trade data.
Cattle prices are raised for the year based on recent data and expected strength in
demand. Hog prices are also raised based on reported data and stronger-than-expected
demand. Broiler prices are raised based on recent price strength carrying into the rest of
the year. Turkey prices are lowered based on latest reported data and continued signs of
relatively weak demand. Egg prices are raised due to recent prices and expectations of
tighter supplies.
The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered on slower expected growth in milk per
cow; cow numbers are unchanged from last month. Fat basis imports for 2024 are raised
on higher expected butter and cheese imports. Skim-solids basis imports are raised for a
number of dairy products. Fat basis exports are raised on strong international demand for
butter and price competitiveness of U.S. cheese. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered
as fewer expected shipments of lactose and whey products more than offset higher
shipments of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and cheese.
Butter prices for 2024 are raised on observed prices and continued strength in demand.
Cheese, NDM, and whey prices are all lowered on recent prices. Class III prices are
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lowered due to lower cheese and whey price forecasts. Class IV prices are raised due to
higher butter prices more than offsetting lower NDM prices. The all milk price for 2024 is
projected lower at $20.90 per cwt.

COTTON: The U.S. 2023/24 cotton supply and demand projections are unchanged this
month, with ending stocks forecast at 2.5 million bales or 18 percent of total
disappearance. The marketing year price received by upland cotton producers is
projected to average 76 cents per pound, a decrease of 1 cent from last month.
The global cotton supply and demand estimates for 2023/24 show higher trade and lower
ending stocks compared with last month. World production and consumption are mostly
unchanged. World trade for 2023/24 is projected 700,000 bales higher this month to
nearly 44 million, as a 1.3-million-bale increase in China’s imports is only partially offset
by reductions for Pakistan and Indonesia. Brazil, Australia, and Turkey exports are all
projected higher. Ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected down nearly 300,000 bales this
month as lower stocks across West Africa, Australia, and Brazil more than offset higher
supplies in China.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committees.

APPROVED BY:
GLORIA MONTAÑO GREENE
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE