WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and
domestic use, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. Exports are raised 25 million
bushels to 725 million on several large recent export sales of Soft Red Winter (SRW)
wheat to China. SRW exports are raised 30 million bushels to 175 million, the largest
SRW exports since 2013/14. White wheat exports are lowered 5 million bushels to 155
million on a slow pace of sales and shipments. Projected all wheat ending stocks are
reduced by 25 million bushels to 659 million, still up 13 percent from last year. The
season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.30 on lower projected stocks,
NASS prices reported to date, and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing
year.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for higher supplies, consumption, and trade with
reduced stocks. Supplies are raised 1.3 million tons to 1,052.9 million, primarily on higher
government production estimates for Australia and Canada partially offset by a reduction
for Brazil. Global consumption is raised 1.8 million tons to 794.7 million, mainly on higher
feed and residual use for the EU, South Korea, and Thailand and increased food, seed,
and industrial use primarily for China. World trade is raised 2.2 million tons to 207.2
million on higher exports by Australia, the United States, Canada, and Ukraine. Projected
2023/24 global ending stocks are reduced 0.5 million tons to 258.2 million, the lowest
since 2015/16.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for higher exports and
lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion reflecting the
pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are
reduced 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by
producers is unchanged at $4.85 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,502.0
million. The 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade,
and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is raised with
increases for Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and Egypt partially offset by reductions for Mexico
and Canada. Corn production for Ukraine and Russia is raised based on reported harvest
results to date. EU corn production is higher as an increase for France is partially offset
by a reduction for Bulgaria. Mexico corn production is cut mostly reflecting lower area.
Foreign barley production is raised with increases for Canada and Australia.
Corn exports are raised for Ukraine, the United States, and Turkey. Corn imports are
higher for Mexico and Iraq. Barley exports are raised for Canada while imports are raised
for China. For 2022/23, corn imports are raised for Mexico but lowered for the EU and
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Saudi Arabia. Barley exports are raised for Australia. Foreign corn ending stocks for
2023/24 are slightly higher based on increases for Ukraine and Russia. Global corn
stocks, at 315.2 million tons, are up fractionally.
RICE: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. rice is for increased supplies, unchanged use and
exports, and larger ending stocks. Supply is raised on a larger import forecast for longgrain rice, on the strong pace of jasmine and basmati imports. All rice exports are
unchanged, with an increase in long-grain exports completely offset by a decrease in
medium- and short-grain exports. With no other changes to the U.S. 2023/24 balance
sheet, ending stocks are raised 1.0 million cwt to 41.9 million. The all rice seasonaverage farm price (SAFP) is raised $0.50 per cwt to $17.80, on higher forecasts for
long-grain and southern medium- and short-grain rice. The SAFP for long-grain rice is
increased $0.50 per cwt to $16.00, based primarily on NASS August-October reported
prices and recent strength in futures prices.
The 2023/24 global outlook for rice this month is for a slight increase in supplies, lower
trade, less use, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised just 0.2 million tons to
692.8 million, primarily on larger production in Thailand, which has greater water
availability than previously expected. The global consumption forecast is nearly
unchanged at 525.1 million tons, with an increase in consumption in India offset by
decreases in several countries including China and Colombia. Global trade is forecast 0.7
million tons smaller to 52.0 million, as a decrease for India is only partly made up for by
larger exports from Thailand. Global 2023/24 ending stocks are raised by 0.3 million tons
to 167.8 million, the lowest since 2017/18.
OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is forecast at 121.5 million tons,
down slightly due to a reduction for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections for
2023/24 are unchanged from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price
forecast is unchanged at $12.90 per bushel. The soybean meal price forecast is
increased $10.00 to $390.00 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at 57 cents
per pound, down 4 cents.
Global oilseed production for 2023/24 is projected at 661.0 million tons, down 0.5 million
from last month. Lower soybean and sunflowerseed production are partly offset by higher
rapeseed production. Soybean production is lowered 1.5 million tons mainly on lower
production for Brazil, reduced 2.0 million tons to 161.0 million reflecting hot and dry
conditions in southern Mato Grosso and northeast Brazil. Partly offsetting is higher
soybean production for Canada and Russia. Sunflowerseed production is reduced for
Argentina on lower harvested area. Global rapeseed production is raised 1.4 million tons
to 87.0 million on higher production for Canada and Australia guided by recent
government reports.
The global 2023/24 soybean outlook includes higher beginning stocks, lower production,
increased exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised mainly
on a 2.0-million-ton increase to 160.0 million for Brazil’s 2022/23 production based on
higher-than-expected use through November. Increased supplies and early exports in the
2023/24 marketing year (starting October 2023) led to a 2.0-million-ton increase to
Brazil’s exports. China’s imports are also raised 2.0 million tons to 102.0 million on strong
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early season shipments by major exporters. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced
slightly as higher stocks for China are offset by lower stocks for Brazil.
SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 5.283 million metric tons (MT), a
decrease of 47,000 from last month but up 58,752 over last year. Production costs are
lower this year and production in some areas has benefitted from October seasonal rains.
With lower fertilizer prices this year, growers have increased its use back to normal levels
compared with last season. Nonetheless, widespread moderate to extreme drought
conditions limit the impact of increased fertilizer on production. October rainfall likely
benefitted the crop in Veracruz, Jalisco, and southern states but the effect will not likely
manifest until later in the season. The effect of extreme drought conditions in San Luis
Potosí, Tamaulipas, and Michoacan are unlikely to be reversed.
CONADESUCA released its first estimate of 2023/24 production immediately after the
release of last month’s WASDE. It pegs production at 5.188 million MT. Its forecast of
production of low polarity sugar for export to the United States is 11.8 percent of the total,
or 612,131 MT. Applying that percentage to the USDA projection implies low polarity
sugar production at 632,751 MT. Assuming that all of this sugar is exported to the U.S.
market and like last year constitutes about 75 percent of the total exported, exports to the
United States are then projected at 831,083 MT. Exports to other countries are
unchanged at 25,000 MT and total exports at 856,083 MT are down 194,669 from last
month. Deliveries and ending stocks are unchanged and imports are residually projected
at 285,869 MT, down 147,669 from last month.
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased by 119,852 short tons, raw value (STRV)
mostly on an increase in imports. USTR reallocated the raw sugar TRQ at the end of
November and USDA expects an import increase due to that action of 162,855 STRV
leaving TRQ shortfall at 91,776 (down from 254,632 last month). Imports from Mexico are
down by 227,461 STRV to 971,079. High-tier tariff imports are increased by 190,000
STRV to 465,000 constituted by 290,000 of raw sugar and 175,000 refined. Louisiana
cane sugar production for 2023/24 is increased 12,250 STRV to 1.799 million on a higher
sugarcane yield forecast by NASS. Texas production is increased slightly as well on
processor reporting. Beet sugar production is unchanged. Deliveries are unchanged but
exports are increased 65,000 STRV to 100,000 on the increase in the monthly pace seen
over the July-October period. Ending stocks are projected at 1.624 million STRV, implying
a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.76 percent.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry
production is raised from last month as higher pork and broiler forecasts for the fourth
quarter are partly offset by lower turkey. Beef production is unchanged with lower
expected cattle slaughter offset by higher dressed weights. Pork production is raised on
higher slaughter. Broiler production is raised on current slaughter and hatchery data.
Turkey production is lowered on recent slaughter data. Egg production is unchanged from
last month.
For 2024, the beef forecast is raised due to higher cattle slaughter and higher dressed
weights. The pork production forecast is unchanged. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report,
to be published December 22, 2023, will provide estimates of the pig crops and producer
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farrowing intentions affecting 2024 production. Broiler production for the first quarter is
lowered on recent hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered based on recent hatchery
data and weaker expected returns. Egg production is reduced due to recent outbreaks of
High Pathogen Avian Influenza.
Beef imports for 2023 are raised on recent data, but exports are lowered. Imports are
raised for 2024 on expectations of demand for processing-grade beef. Pork imports and
exports for 2023 are raised on recent data. Pork imports for 2024 are raised on a
continued pace of shipments from Canada. Pork exports for 2024 are lowered due to
weaker demand from Asian markets. The broiler export forecast for 2023 is raised on
recent trade data, but 2024 exports are lowered. Turkey exports are raised for 2023 and
2024 based on weaker turkey prices.
Cattle price forecasts are lowered for the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024 on recent price
movements and as larger expected placements of cattle in late 2023 are marketed in
2024. Hog prices are lowered for the fourth quarter of 2023 and early 2024 based on
prices to date. Broiler prices for the fourth quarter of 2023 are lowered slightly based on
prices to date but are unchanged for 2024. Turkey prices are lowered for fourth-quarter
2023 based on current prices. The turkey prices for 2024 are also lowered due to
expected weakness in demand. The egg price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023 is
lowered, reflecting recent price declines. Egg price forecasts for the first half of 2024 are
raised however, on lowered production forecasts.
The milk production forecast for 2023 is lowered from last month due to slower expected
growth in milk per cow. Production in 2024 is lowered due to lower milk cow numbers and
reduced milk per cow.
The fat basis import forecast for 2023 is raised due to higher imports of cheese. Skimsolids imports are lowered due to fewer shipments of milk protein products. The fat basis
export forecast is lowered due to lower butter exports. The skim-solids export forecast is
raised due to higher whey product shipments which more than offset lower expected
nonfat/skim powder. For 2024, the import forecast is raised on a fat basis, but lowered on
a skim-solids basis. Fat basis exports are lowered for 2024 on lower expected butter
shipments, while a higher skim-solids basis forecast reflects higher nonfat/skim powder
and whey product exports.
For 2023, based on recent prices, cheese and butter price forecasts are lowered while
the nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is raised. The whey price is unchanged. The Class III and
Class IV price forecasts are both lower on lower cheese and butter prices. For 2024, the
cheese price forecast is lowered, while butter, NDM, and whey prices are raised. The
Class III price forecast is lowered due lower cheese prices. The Class IV price forecast is
raised due to higher butter and NDM price forecasts. The all milk price forecast for 2023
is lowered to $20.60. The 2024 all milk price forecast is lowered to $20.25.
COTTON: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. cotton forecasts include lower production, mill use,
and ending stocks. Production is reduced 314,000 bales to 12.8 million largely due to a
500,000-bale decrease in the Texas crop. U.S. mill use is reduced 150,000 bales as
spinning activity continues to lag, and at 1.9 million bales, is expected to be its lowest
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since 1884. Ending stocks are now projected 100,000 bales lower than in November at
3.1 million bales, or 22 percent of disappearance. The projected upland cotton seasonaverage farm price is unchanged at 77 cents per pound.
The global December 2023/24 cotton balance sheet includes lower consumption and
higher ending stocks than last month. World consumption is projected 1.6 million bales
lower, largely due to a 1.0-million-bale reduction in China. Turkey’s consumption forecast
is 400,000 bales lower, and the United States and Mexico are also down, while
Bangladesh is up 100,000 bales.
Global production is forecast 540,000 bales lower than in November as reductions for the
United States, Turkey, and Mexico more than offset a 200,000-bale increase for Pakistan.
World trade is down only slightly as larger expected imports by China—up 500,000
bales—nearly offset reductions in Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Larger expected
exports by Turkey are more than offset by a 300,000-bale reduction for Brazil and smaller
reductions elsewhere. World 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast 900,000 bales higher
this month, with China’s projected stocks up 1.5 million bales. Total projected global
stocks of 82.4 million bales are 72 percent of use.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
