WHEAT: The 2023/24 U.S. all wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month with
offsetting by-class changes on exports. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is also
unchanged at $7.50 per bushel.
The 2023/24 global wheat outlook lowers supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks
compared with last month. Supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million,
primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly
offset by an increase for Ukraine. If realized, this would be the first year-to-year decline in global
wheat production since 2018/19. Australia is reduced 3.0 million tons to 26.0 million as dry
weather this past month in Western Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland lowers yield
prospects. Canada is decreased 2.0 million tons to 31.0 million on the initial model-based
forecast by Statistics Canada for the 2023/24 crop, indicating lower yields from last year arising
from dry conditions across the Prairies. Despite smaller global supplies, world consumption is
nearly unchanged with decreased Food, Seed, and Industrial use mostly offset by increased feed
and residual use. Feed and residual use is raised by 1.0 million tons for both China and the EU
due to wet weather during harvest that is expected to result in higher amounts of lower-quality
wheat used for feed. Global trade is trimmed 2.1 million tons to 207.3 million as reductions for
Australia, Canada, and the EU are only partly offset by increases for Russia and Kazakhstan.
World ending stocks are reduced 7.0 million tons to 258.6 million and would be the lowest since
2015/16. Ending stocks are tightened in many countries this month, particularly for several major
wheat exporters.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and
ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 5 million bushels lower based on
mostly offsetting trade and corn used for ethanol changes for 2022/23. Corn production for
2023/24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 23 million from last month as greater harvested
area more than offsets a reduction in yield. The national average yield is forecast at 173.8
bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, up
0.8 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 14.4 billion. With supply rising slightly and use
unchanged, ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price
received by producers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel.
This month’s 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, marginally lower
trade, and larger stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is virtually unchanged
with an increase for Ukraine largely offset by a decline for the EU. Ukraine corn production is
raised on an increase in yield expectations, while EU corn production is lowered based on
reductions for France and Bulgaria that are partly offset by an increase for Germany. Foreign
barley production is reduced on a decline for Canada that is partly offset by larger production for
Russia.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2023/24 include lower barley exports for Canada
with a partly offsetting increase for Russia. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised 2.5 million tons
WASDE-640-2 to 257.6 million, reflecting increases for Brazil, Mexico, Ukraine, and China that are partially offset by a decline for Argentina. World corn ending stocks at 314.0 million tons are up 2.9 million relative to last month.
RICE: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. rice this month is for larger supplies, exports, domestic use,
and ending stocks. Supplies are increased on higher beginning stocks, production, and imports.
Beginning stocks are raised 5.7 million cwt to 30.3 million on the NASS Rice Stocks report,
released August 23. The 2023/24 all rice production forecast is raised by 17.3 million cwt to
220.9 million, on higher harvested area and yields, as indicated by the NASS September Crop
Production report. The average all rice yield is up 52 pounds per acre to a record 7,751 pounds.
All rice imports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 39.0 million as the growth in consumption of Asian
aromatics is expected to continue despite significantly larger U.S. supplies. Total domestic and
residual use is projected higher at a record 162.0 million cwt with greater supplies. Total exports
are also projected higher at 85.0 million cwt on larger supplies and more competitive U.S. prices.
All rice 2023/24 ending stocks are projected 12.0 million cwt higher at 43.2 million. The 2023/24
all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $16.80 per cwt, down $0.90 from last
month on reductions in the SAFPs for all rice classes.
The 2023/24 global rice outlook this month is for reduced supplies, consumption, trade, and
stocks. World supplies are reduced 4.4 million tons to 690.3 million, mostly on lower beginning
stocks and production for India. The country’s beginning stocks are reduced on a 3.0-million-ton
increase in 2022/23 consumption as implied by the latest government stocks report. India’s
2023/24 rice production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 132.0 million on below-average monsoon
rains in August affecting the kharif crop. Global 2023/24 rice consumption is lowered 0.2 million
tons to 522.7 million as reductions for Bangladesh and Vietnam more than offset an increase for
India. World trade is projected at 52.2 million tons, down 0.8 million as reduced exports from
India are only partially offset by higher exports from Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States.
The Government of India has imposed further restrictions on rice exports with an export tax on
parboiled rice and a minimum export price for basmati. Projected 2023/24 world ending stocks
are 167.6 million tons, down 4.2 million with most of the reduction for India.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023/24 include lower beginning stocks,
production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect an increase for
exports in 2022/23. Soybean production is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, down 59 million with
higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.1 million acres from the
August forecast. The soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre is down 0.8 bushels from last
month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is
reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels,
down 25 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last
month. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380 per short ton and the soybean oil price is
raised 1.0 cent to 63.0 cents per pound. Other changes this month include higher peanut and
lower cottonseed production.
Foreign 2023/24 oilseed production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 538.7 million mainly on lower
rapeseed production for Canada and the EU, lower sunflowerseed production for the EU, and
lower cottonseed production for India. Partly offsetting is higher sunflower, soybean, and
rapeseed production for Ukraine. The canola crop for Canada is lowered 0.8 million tons to 18.2
million, reflecting recent government reports and drought conditions in the southwestern Prairies
during the growing season.
WASDE-640-3
Global 2023/24 soybean crush is reduced 1.8 million tons to 327.7 million on lower crush for
Argentina, Pakistan, the EU, Thailand, and the United States. Argentina’s crush is reduced 1.8
million tons to 34.5 million on lower expected supplies over the next several months prior to next
year’s harvest. China’s crush is raised 1.0 million tons to 96.0 million in line with higher crush and
domestic soybean meal demand in the prior marketing year.
Global soybean exports are reduced 0.4 million tons to 168.4 million as lower U.S. exports are
partly offset by higher shipments from Brazil and Ukraine. Imports are reduced for Pakistan,
Thailand, the EU, and Indonesia. Conversely, China’s imports for 2022/23 and 2023/24 are
increased on higher crush demand and large shipments from Brazil that are expected to continue
into the next marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2
million.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2022/23 is raised by 90,589 short tons, raw value (STRV) on
increased production and imports while use is decreased by 55,000 on lower deliveries partially
offset by an increase in exports. Beet sugar production is increased 31,812 STRV on final
August-July crop year production reported by processors in the SMD. Production benefitted from
high relative levels of sucrose recovery in all regions but especially in the Red River Valley. The
production estimate for August and September 2023 for sugarbeets harvested this season is
unchanged. A small reduction is made for lower cane sugar production than reported last month
for Texas. High-tier tariff imports are increased by 60,000 STRV on additional imports of raw
sugar by cane refiners in August. High-tier tariff refined sugar imports for August were close to
that estimated last month and are, therefore, unchanged. For use, deliveries for human
consumption are lowered 75,000 STRV to 12.500 million, reflecting a continuing decrease in the
delivery pace seen these last few months and with only two months of remaining data to be
reported in the fiscal year. These final month deliveries can be influenced by the level of beet
sugar production occurring during this period. The delivery decrease is partially offset by a
combined 20,000-STRV increase in exports and deliveries to re-export sugar product
manufacturers. Ending stocks are increased by 145,589 STRV to 2.159 million for ending stocksto-use ratio of 17.06 percent, an increase of 1.22 percentage points over last month.
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is decreased by 277,945 STRV on decreases in production and
imports only partially offset by an increase in beginning stocks. Cane sugar production for
2023/24 in Louisiana is lowered by 371,403 STRV to 1.682 million. NASS lowered Louisiana
sugarcane yield to 27.2 tons/acre reflecting the effect of the ongoing widespread drought.
Because processors were unchanged in their aggregate assessment of sucrose recovery, sugar
production is lowered by the full effect of the lower yield on sugarcane. NASS increased the
sugarbeet yield on the national level to 31.5 tons/acre and also increased area harvested by a
small amount, implying an increase in beet sugar production to 5.223 million STRV, an increase
of 149,619 over last month. Sugar imports from Mexico are lowered by 201,750 STRV in
anticipated accordance with the CVD Suspension Agreements administered by the DOC. Use is
lowered by 50,000 STRV on lower deliveries for human consumption on a continuation of the
slowing trend of deliveries seen in the second half of 2022/23. Supply and use changes imply
lower ending stocks of 1.714 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent.
Mexico sugar supply for 2022/23 is increased by 53,598 metric tons (MT) to 6.442 million on an
increase in imports. Sugar stocks have decreased substantially in May-July driving domestic
prices to historically high levels, incentivizing high-tier tariff imports. A wide range of imports
between 215,000 and 292,000 MT are considered plausible and a mean level of 253,598 MT is
estimated in the WASDE. Mexico sugar production for 2023/24 is lowered by 100,000 to 5.800
million MT due to the ongoing widespread drought. Imports to the United States are projected at
1.099 million MT as per the CVD Suspension Agreement provisions as indicated above.
WASDE-640-4
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production is
lowered from last month, on lower beef, pork, and broiler forecasts. Beef production is reduced
on a slower pace of marketings in the third quarter. This decline is only partly offset by higher
expected carcass weights in that quarter and higher expected cow slaughter in the third and
fourth quarters. Pork production is lowered for the second half with a slower expected pace of
slaughter and lighter carcass weights. Broiler production is lowered on current slaughter data and
expectations of a lower number of chicks placed and lighter bird weights. Turkey production is
unchanged from last month. Egg production is reduced on hatchery data. For 2024, the red meat
and poultry production forecast is reduced on lower broiler production as weaker prices are
expected to constrain production growth. No changes are made to beef, pork, or turkey
forecasts. The slower pace of egg production growth for 2023 is expected to carry into the first
part of 2024, reducing the production forecast.
Beef import forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are raised on continued strength in demand and
availability of supplies in Oceania. Beef exports are lowered for 2023 and 2024 on tight domestic
supplies and strong competition in Asian markets. Pork imports are increased for 2023 on the
current pace of trade but are unchanged for 2024. Pork exports are lowered for both 2023 and
2024 on weaker demand. Broiler exports for 2023 and 2024 are reduced on the current pace of
trade and a lower production forecast. Turkey exports are raised for 2023 and 2024 as prices are
expected to be attractive for buyers.
Cattle price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are unchanged from last month. The hog price forecast
for 2023 is lowered on a sharper decline in recent prices than previously expected; however, the
price forecast for 2024 is unchanged. The broiler price forecast for third quarter 2023 is raised on
current prices but the forecasts for the outlying quarters, including 2024, are unchanged from last
month. Turkey price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are reduced on continued weakness in
demand. Egg price forecasts are raised on slower expected production growth.
The milk production forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are lowered from last month. The cow inventory
is reduced, reflecting the average July 2023 cow number reported in the recent Milk Production
report. The reduction in cow numbers is expected to continue through 2023 and into the first half
of 2024 as returns remain under pressure. For 2023, output-per-cow is forecast to increase at a
lower rate than previously expected on recent data and the expected impact of high
temperatures during the summer. However, the forecast of milk per cow for 2024 is unchanged.
Fat basis import forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are lowered, largely driven by recent trade data and
lower expected imports of cheese and butter throughout the forecast period. Skim-solids basis
imports are unchanged for 2023 and 2024. Fat basis export forecasts are unchanged for 2023,
while skim-solids basis export forecasts are lowered on weaker whey exports. For 2024, exports
on a fat basis are lowered on expectations of fewer shipments of butter and fat containing
products and cheese, while exports on a skim-solids basis are reduced, reflecting lower cheese,
and whey and whey products shipments.
For 2023, forecasts for cheese, butter, and whey prices are raised on current price strength, but
nonfat dried milk (NDM) is lowered. Both Class III and Class IV prices are raised, reflecting
changes in their component values. For 2024, price forecasts for cheese, butter and whey are
raised on lowered milk production and continued firm demand. NDM price forecasts are lowered.
The Class III price forecast is raised on higher cheese and whey prices while the Class IV price
forecast is raised as the higher butter price more than offsets the lower NDM price. The 2023 all
milk price forecast is raised to $20.40 per cwt and the 2024 all milk price is raised to $20.30 per
cwt. WASDE-640-5
COTTON: The 2023/24 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks but lower
production, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are increased 550,000 bales, largely
reflecting ending stocks data for the previous year from the Agricultural Marketing Service and
the NASS Cotton System Consumption and Stocks report. Beginning stocks were also increased
for 2022/23 as unexpectedly large warehouse stocks reported for July 31, 2023 indicated stocks
in-transit as of July 31, 2022 were higher than previously estimated. The 2023/24 U.S. production
forecast is 860,000 bales lower this month, with the Southeast and Southwest leading the
decline. Projected consumption is unchanged from August, but exports are down 200,000 bales
and ending stocks are 100,000 bales lower. The season-average price for upland cotton
projected for 2023/24 is 80 cents per pound, up 1 cent from the previous month.
The 2023/24 world cotton projections include lower beginning stocks, production, consumption,
trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Beginning stocks are about 1.0 million bales
lower as the effects of upward revisions for earlier years’ consumption in China and Turkey more
than offset the impact of larger U.S. and Brazil beginning stocks. World production is projected
1.7 million bales lower as reductions for the United States, India, the African Franc Zone,
Greece, and Mexico more than offset an increase for Brazil. World consumption is also more
than 1.0 million bales lower, with reductions in India, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam. World
trade is 600,000 bales lower with net import reductions for Bangladesh and Vietnam, and export
reductions for the Franc Zone, the United States, Australia, Greece, and Mexico more than
offsetting a 550,000-bale increase for Brazil. World ending stocks are 1.6 million bales lower this
month, at 90.0 million bales.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.