WHEAT: The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and exports, increased
domestic use, and smaller stocks compared with 2022/23. U.S. wheat supplies are forecast lower
than last year with smaller beginning stocks and only slightly larger production. All wheat production
is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area.
However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in
Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The all wheat yield, projected at 44.7 bushels per acre, is 1.8
bushels lower than last year. The first survey-based production forecast for 2023/24 winter wheat is
up 2 percent from last year as higher Soft Red Winter production more than offsets a decline in Hard
Red Winter and White wheat.
Total 2023/24 domestic use is projected at 1,112 million bushels, up 1 percent from last year,
primarily on increased feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 725 million bushels, 50 million
lower than last year. Ending stocks are projected 11 percent lower than last year and the lowest in
16 years. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is $8.00 per bushel, down $0.85 from
last year’s record.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower supplies, trade, consumption, and ending stocks
compared with 2022/23. Global production is forecast at a record 789.8 million tons, up 1.5 million.
Larger crops in several countries, including Argentina, Canada, China, the EU, and India are partly
offset by sizeable declines in Australia, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. The largest increase is for
Argentina, where production is expected to recover from a significant drought. Near-record
production is forecast in Canada on expanded area reported in the Statistics Canada planting
intentions survey. EU production is forecast higher, benefiting from above-average precipitation for
nearly all EU member countries except Spain and Portugal. Production in Russia is forecast lower on
reduced area and yields from last year’s record. In Ukraine, production is forecast down 21 percent
from the prior year, mostly due to the war with Russia. After three consecutive record crops,
production in Australia is forecast to decrease substantially as yields revert to average.
Projected world consumption at 791.7 million tons is down 3.0 million compared with last year on
reduced feed and residual use. Larger feed grain supplies in 2023/24 make wheat less competitive.
The largest feed and residual reductions are in Ukraine, India, Russia, and China. Global trade is
projected at 209.7 million tons, a decline of 5.5 million from 2022/23. Russia is expected to once
again be the largest exporter followed by the EU, Canada, Australia, the United States, and
Argentina. Sharp decreases in exports for Australia, India, and Ukraine more than offset increases
for Argentina, the EU, and Russia. Projected ending stocks for 2023/24 are down 1.9 million tons to
264.3 million. Stocks are forecast to decline in Russia and the EU but increase in China and India. If
realized, this would represent the lowest global stocks-to-use ratio since 2014/15 with more than half
of global stocks held in China.

COARSE GRAINS: The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, greater domestic use
and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up
more than 10 percent from last year on increases to both area and yield. The yield projection of
181.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and
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summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2022 time period. With beginning stocks
up slightly, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.7 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18.
Total U.S. corn use for 2023/24 is forecast to rise about 5 percent relative to a year ago on higher
domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is projected to rise 55 million bushels to
6.7 billion. Corn used for ethanol is projected to increase 1 percent, based on expectations of
modest growth in motor gasoline consumption and ethanol’s inclusion rate into gasoline. Feed and
residual use is projected higher on a larger crop and lower expected prices.
U.S. corn exports for 2023/24 are forecast to rise 325 million bushels to 2.1 billion, as lower prices
support a sharp increase in global trade following the decline seen during 2022/23. U.S. market
share is expected to increase slightly albeit remain below the average of the past 5 years. Exports
are higher for Argentina and Brazil, with the former reflecting a return to normal weather conditions
after a drought during 2022/23. Despite a rebound in U.S. exports, Brazil is forecast to be the world’s
largest exporter of corn for the second consecutive year. Exports for Ukraine are projected to decline
based on lower production prospects.
With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2023/24 ending stocks are up 805 million bushels
from last year and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2016/17. Stocks would
represent 15.3 percent of use, the highest since 2018/19. The season-average farm price is
projected at $4.80 per bushel, down $1.80 from 2022/23.
The global coarse grain outlook for 2023/24 is for record production and use, and larger ending
stocks. World corn production is forecast record high, with the largest increases for the United
States, Argentina, the EU, China, and Serbia. Partly offsetting are smaller crops projected for
Ukraine and Brazil. World corn use is expected to rise about 4 percent, with foreign consumption
increasing by a similar amount. With lower prices, world corn imports are forecast to grow just over 5
percent, driven by increases for several countries, including China, Egypt, Vietnam, Algeria, Mexico,
and Colombia. Partly offsetting are reductions for the EU and Turkey. Global corn ending stocks are
up 15.5 million tons to 312.9 million, mostly reflecting larger stocks for the United States that are
partly offset by declines for Brazil and China.
For China, total coarse grain imports for 2023/24 are forecast at 38.4 million tons, up 7.2 million from
a year ago but below the record 50.5 million reached during 2020/21. Expectations are for China’s
internal market prices for energy feedstuffs to remain higher than the world market. Corn imports are
expected to rise 5.0 million tons to 23.0 million supported by imports from 3 major exporting
countries: the United States, Brazil, and Ukraine. China’s barley imports are projected at 7.0 million
tons and sorghum at 8.0 million.

RICE: The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. rice is for larger supplies, exports, domestic use, and ending
stocks. Total 2023/24 supplies are projected at 259.3 million cwt, up 8 percent from 2022/23 as
higher production more than offsets lower beginning stocks and fractionally smaller imports. All rice
production is projected at 192.7 million cwt, up 20 percent from the previous year on increased
harvested area and higher expected yields. The 2023/24 projected all rice yield is 7,587 pounds per
acre, up 204 pounds from last year. Total 2023/24 imports are down only slightly from last year’s
record at 39.0 million cwt. Total 2023/24 domestic and residual use is projected higher at 154.0
million cwt, reflecting greater supplies and would be the largest on record. Total exports are
projected at 74.0 million cwt on larger supplies and reduced U.S. prices. However, continued South
American competition is expected to limit the expansion of U.S. long-grain exports. All rice 2023/24
ending stocks are projected at 31.3 million cwt, up 13 percent from last year. The 2023/24 all rice
season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $17.60 per cwt, down from the 2022/23 SAFP of
$19.40, which is a record.
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The global rice outlook for 2023/24 is for record production and use, steady trade, and reduced
ending stocks. World 2023/24 production is projected at 520.5 million tons, primarily driven by
increases for China, Pakistan, India, and the United States. Global 2023/24 rice consumption is
projected at 523.0 million tons, mostly on higher use by India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines
offsetting a reduction by China. Global trade for 2023/24 is projected at 55.8 million tons, slightly
higher than last year as increased exports from Pakistan and the United States more than offset
reductions for Thailand and Vietnam. India remains the leading exporter at 22.5 million tons,
matching last year’s record. Projected 2023/24 world ending stocks are 166.7 million tons, down 2.5
million from last year as ending stocks are at a 6-year low.

OILSEEDS: The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, and ending stocks,
and lower exports compared with 2022/23. The soybean crop is projected at 4.51 billion bushels, up
5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher yields. With lower beginning stocks partly offsetting
increased production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.75 billion bushels, up 4 percent from
2022/23. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is projected at 132.8 million tons, up 6.9 million
from 2022/23 mainly on higher soybean production. Production forecasts are also higher for canola,
peanuts, and cottonseed.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2023/24 is projected at 2.31 billion bushels, up 90 million from the
2022/23 forecast on favorable crush margins and strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel
feedstock, which is projected to increase 900 million pounds to 12.5 billion. Domestic soybean meal
disappearance is forecast to increase 2 percent from 2022/23 on lower soybean meal prices and
modest growth primarily in poultry production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 14.8 million
short tons, leaving the U.S share of global trade slightly above the prior 5-year average. U.S.
soybean exports are forecast at 1.98 billion bushels, down 40 million from 2022/23 with strong
competition from increasing South American production and limited gains in global import demand.
U.S. ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 335 million bushels, up 120 million from the revised
2022/23 forecast.
Soybean and product prices are all forecast lower for 2023/24. The 2023/24 U.S. season-average
soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel compared with $14.20 per bushel in 2022/23.
Soybean meal prices are forecast at $365 per short ton, down $90. Soybean oil prices are forecast
at 58 cents per pound, down 6 cents from 2022/23.
The 2023/24 global oilseed outlook shows higher production, crush, and ending stocks compared
with last marketing year. Global production is rising 43.8 million tons to 671.2 million mainly on
higher soybean production for South America and the United States, higher sunflowerseed for the
EU, and higher rapeseed for the EU and Canada. Partly offsetting is lower rapeseed production for
Australia on a lower yield after 3 years of exceptional weather conditions. Combined production for
major South American producers (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) is growing 31.9 million
tons after last year’s drought in southern South America and a higher expected area.
Global 2023/24 oilseed crush is growing 20.7 million tons to 542.5 million, with most of the growth in
soybean crush for Argentina, China, Brazil, and the United States. Soybean products account for the
majority of the growth in oilseed meal and vegetable oil trade, counter to last marketing year when
lower Argentine supplies depressed soybean product exports and were replaced by palm oil and
sunflowerseed and rapeseed products.
The growth in global oilseed trade is slower than the prior decade, increasing less than 1 percent in
2023/24 as higher soybean exports are mostly offset by lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed
shipments. Trade is limited by higher oilseed production in major importing countries and lower
production in major exporters of rapeseed. For the EU, higher oilseed production drives lower import
demand of sunflowerseed, rapeseed, soybeans, and products. Larger soybean crush for China also
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reduces demand for rapeseed and products. Rapeseed production in major exporters, particularly
Australia and Ukraine, is also down.
Global 2023/24 soybean trade is growing 4.0 million tons to 172.4 million, reflecting increased
demand by China and higher imports for Pakistan, Egypt, and Bangladesh after last marketing year’s
declines. China’s imports are rising 2.0 million tons to 100.0 million, a slower rate than the prior
decade. With projected weaker growth for China and EU soybean imports, coupled with record
South American supplies, the U.S. share of global exports is expected to decline.
Global 2023/24 soybean ending stocks are projected up 21.5 million tons to 122.5 million, with most
of the increase for Brazil, Argentina, the United States, and China. The ending stocks figure includes
mid-season stocks (September 30, 2024) for Brazil and Argentina and reflects growing supplies
leading into the 2024 U.S. export season.

SUGAR: U.S. sugarbeet production for 2023/24 is projected at 33.345 million tons with yield forecast
at 30.77 tons/acre and area harvested projected at 1.084 million acres. Recent year regional
averages and trends are applied to NASS forecasts of area planted from Prospective Plantings for
projected planted-to-harvest ratios and State-level sugarbeet yields. Assuming average regional
levels of beet pile shrink and slicing recovery, beet sugar production for the August-July crop year
and fiscal year is at 4.961 million short tons, raw value (STRV). Cane sugar production for 2023/24 is
projected at 4.264 million STRV. Based on analysis of area and yield developments, production
levels in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are expected to be modestly above 2022/23 levels. For
2022/23, Florida cane production is decreased by 28,669 STRV to 2.015 million on processors’
reporting.
TRQ imports for 2023/24 are projected at 1.413 million STRV with levels set at minimum levels
consistent with the WTO and FTA bindings and with TRQ shortfall projected at 94,059. Re-export
imports are projected at 250,000 STRV and high-tier tariff imports at 120,000 STRV. Imports from
Mexico for 2023/24 are projected at 1.517 million STRV. For 2022/23, imports from Mexico are
reduced by 64,987 STRV as Mexico is expected to produce less low polarity sugar than previously
estimated, and refined exports are reduced to assure that no more than 30 percent of the total is
refined. Deliveries for 2022/23 are increased by 75,000 STRV to 12.675 million on pace to date and
that amount is carried over to 2023/24. Ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 1.444 million
STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.26 percent.
Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 5.900 million metric tons (MT). Area harvested is
expected to be at a level similar to 2022/23, and yield and recovery are expected to be closer to
historical trend. Production in 2022/23 is lowered 175,000 MT to 5.385 million. Sugarcane yield is
estimated at a low 59.98 MT/hectare and recovery is estimated at 11.04 percent. Factories are
shutting down, in some cases sooner than expected. If the remaining factories follow suit by shutting
down earlier than anticipated, production could be lower by even more. The current production
estimate for below-99.2 polarity sugar is 767,520 MT. Based on the pace for the first 6 months of the
crop year, deliveries for human consumption in 2022/23 are lowered by 82,735 MT to 4.085 million
while high fructose corn syrup deliveries are increased by 116,000 MT to 1.407 million. Deliveries for
IMMEX in 2022/23 are estimated at 350,000 MT. Until more information becomes available, imports
for IMMEX are unchanged at 25,000 MT, the same level as in 2021/22. For 2023/24, deliveries for
human consumption are increased on expected population growth and IMMEX deliveries are
projected at 500,000 MT, a return to trend levels. Stocks for both years are calculated at levels
consistent with having enough sugar available for 2.3 months to meet delivery requirements in the
succeeding year before the new sugarcane campaign begins in November. Exports for 2023/24 are
projected residually at 1.298 million MT and all will go to the U.S. market under export license.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2024 is
forecast one percent below 2023, as lower beef and fractionally lower pork production offsets higher
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poultry production. Beef production is forecast lower with expected declines in both fed and non-fed
cattle supplies. Pork production is forecast slightly lower. Weaker expected farrowings in second-half
2023 will constrain production growth in the first part of 2024, but higher hog prices and lower
expected feed prices during 2023/24 are expected to stimulate a modest increase in 2024 farrowings,
supporting higher production in the latter part of the year. Higher forecast broiler production reflects
declining feed costs and tight supplies of alternative meat proteins. Turkey production is projected
higher as the sector continues to recover from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. Egg production is
forecast higher with flock rebuilding.
Total red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2023 are raised from last month. Higher beef,
pork, and broiler production more than offset a reduction in turkey. Beef production is raised on
recent slaughter data and larger-than-previously-forecast first-half placements, supporting higher
slaughter of steers and heifers in the second half. Cow slaughter is raised as well, as forage supplies
remain tight despite some improvements in pasture conditions. Pork production is raised slightly on
recent production data. Based on recent slaughter and hatchery data, broiler production was lowered
for the second quarter, but raised for the second half of the year as feed prices are expected to
decline and second-half prices remain steady. Turkey production forecast is lowered on recent
hatchery data. Egg production is lowered on recent hatchery data and weaker expected egg prices.
For 2024, beef exports are down from 2023, on lower production. Beef imports are projected higher
on tight domestic supplies. Pork imports are slightly higher, while exports are lower, with offsetting
gains in several markets. Broiler and turkey exports are both forecast higher on increased
production. For 2023, beef, pork, and broiler exports are raised largely on recent trade data.
For 2024, cattle prices are forecast above 2023 on tighter supplies. Hog prices are forecast higher
on improved demand and slightly lower supplies. Broiler and turkey prices are forecast lower with
increased production. The egg price is forecast lower with increased supplies.
The 2023 cattle price forecast is raised on recent data and tighter supplies expected later in the year.
Hog prices are lowered on prices to date and weaker-than-expected demand, while broiler prices are
raised on recent data. Turkey prices are unchanged.
Milk production for 2024 is forecast above 2023, driven by gains in milk per cow and an additional
milking day. Commercial exports on both fat and skim-solids bases are forecast higher than 2023.
Gains are expected in butter and milkfat products, non-fat dry milk (NDM), cheese, whey, and
lactose. Imports are projected unchanged on a fat basis but higher on a skim-solids basis, with
higher imports of cheese, milk proteins, and several other dairy products offset by lower butter fat
products. The Class III price is forecast lower on weaker whey prices. The Class IV price is forecast
lower as well, with prices for butter and non-fat dry milk projected lower. The 2024 all milk price is
forecast at $19.90 per cwt.
The 2023 milk production forecast is lowered from the previous month. Cow inventories are raised
but growth in milk per cow is slower. Fat-basis exports are lowered from the previous month, mainly
on weaker butter and milkfat shipments, offset by stronger cheese. The skim-solids basis export
forecast is higher on stronger skim milk powder and cheese exports, but partly offset by weaker whey
exports. Imports on a skim-solids basis are lowered from last month on lower milk protein imports.
Imports on a fat basis are unchanged. Butter and NDM prices are raised from last month on strong