WHEAT: The supply and demand outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is largely unchanged this
month with minor revisions to domestic use and ending stocks. Food use is lowered 2 million
bushels to 975 million, which still is a record. The decrease is based on the NASS Flour
Millings Products report, indicating a 2 percent reduction in wheat ground for flour for the
October-December quarter compared to a year earlier. Seed use is raised 1 million bushels
to 70 million, based primarily on NASS seed use data for the September-November quarter.
Wheat exports are unchanged at 775 million tons with offsetting by-class changes. Projected
2022/23 ending stocks are raised 1 million bushels to 568 million. The 2022/23 seasonaverage farm price is forecast $0.10 per bushel lower at $9.00, based on prices received to
date and expectations for cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and
stocks. Supplies are raised 2.4 million tons to 1,060.5 million, primarily on higher production
for Australia and Russia. Australia production is raised 1.4 million tons to 38.0 million, which
would be a third consecutive record. The majority of the increase is for Western Australia
based on harvest receivals to date. Russia production is raised 1.0 million tons to 92.0
million on larger spring wheat harvested area.
Global consumption is increased 1.4 million tons to 791.2 million, mainly on higher feed and
residual use by Canada, EU, and Russia more than offsetting lower food, seed, and industrial
use by Bangladesh. World trade is raised 1.3 million tons to 212.9 million on higher exports
by Australia, Ukraine, EU, and Russia more than offsetting reduced exports by Canada.
Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons to 269.3 million on increases for
Australia and China more than offsetting a reduction for Ukraine. However, ending stocks
still remain the lowest since 2016/17.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for
ethanol and larger ending stocks. Corn used for ethanol is reduced 25 million bushels, based
on data through December from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and
weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the
month of January. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million
bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is
unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.6 million tons lower to 1,442.8
million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, consumption,
and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down, with a decline for
Argentina partially offset by increases for the Philippines and Vietnam. For Argentina,
production is cut based on reductions to both area and yield. Foreign barley production is
raised reflecting increases for Russia, Australia, and Uruguay.
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Major global trade changes for 2022/23 include higher projected corn exports for Brazil,
Ukraine, Paraguay, Turkey, and Indonesia, with a reduction for Argentina. For 2021/22,
Argentina’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2022 are lowered based on
observed shipments to date, while Brazil is raised. Corn imports for 2022/23 are increased
for the EU, with partly offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Malaysia. Sorghum imports are
lowered for China, reflecting export cuts for Argentina and the United States. Foreign corn
ending stocks are down relative to last month, with declines for Ukraine and Indonesia that
are partly offset by increases for Brazil and Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 295.3
million tons, are down 1.1 million.

RICE: This month’s outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic
use, smaller exports, and slightly larger ending stocks. Total imports are lowered 3.0 million
cwt to 42.0 million with reductions to the long-grain and medium- and short-grain import
forecasts. Import forecasts for all rice and both classes of rice remain record highs and total
supplies are the lowest since 2003/04. In contrast, total exports are forecast down 4.0 million
cwt to 62.0 million, the lowest level since 1985/86, as high U.S. prices continue to limit sales.
Long-grain exports are lowered 2.0 million cwt to 47.0 million, on weak sales and shipments
to date, particularly rough rice to Mexico. Medium- and short-grain rice exports are lowered
2.0 million cwt to 15.0 million on tight supplies, weak sales to date, and expectations
regarding shipments for the remainder of the year. Projected 2022/23 all rice ending stocks
are increased 1.0 million cwt to 33.1 million, but still down 17 percent from last year. The
season-average farm price (SAFP) for long-grain rice is raised $0.20 per cwt to $16.90, while
the SAFPs for southern and California medium- and short-grain rice were unchanged. The
higher long-grain SAFP raised the all rice average farm price to $19.40 per cwt, up 20 cents.
The 2022/23 global outlook this month is for slightly larger supplies, modestly lower trade,
increased consumption, and lower ending stocks. Global 2022/23 rice supplies are
increased by 0.2 million tons to 686.3 million. Total trade is forecast to decline 0.3 million
tons to 54.1 million, as reductions for Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, and the United States
more than offset an increase for India. Total exports in the first three months of India’s
marketing year were larger than a year earlier and demand for rice from India remains strong
despite its export restrictions. India’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 21.5 million,
slightly below last year’s record. Exports from Vietnam are forecast 0.6 million tons lower to
6.8 million due to lower production reducing exportable supplies. Global consumption is
raised 1.1 million tons to 517.2 million as increases in China and Bangladesh more than
offset a decrease for Indonesia. World ending stocks are lowered 0.9 million tons to 169.1
million, 8 percent lower than global ending stocks in 2021/22.

OILSEEDS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. soybean outlook is for lower soybean crush and
higher ending stocks. Soybean crush is forecast at 2.23 billion bushels, down 15 million from
last month on lower domestic soybean meal disappearance and a higher soybean meal
extraction rate. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 225 million
bushels, up 15 million.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.30 per bushel, up 10
cents from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $450.00 per short ton, up 25
dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 68.0 cents per pound.
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Global 2022/23 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, and
ending stocks. Global production is reduced 5.0 million tons to 383.0 million on lower crops
for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina’s crop is reduced 4.5 million tons to 41.0 million on
lower area and dry weather conditions impacting yields. Ukraine’s crop is down 0.4 million
tons on lower reported area harvested. Global soybean exports are nearly unchanged, with
lower exports for Argentina offset by higher shipments for Paraguay and Brazil. Soybean
imports are increased for Argentina while down for the EU. EU imports are reduced on the
pace to date and higher imports of rapeseed and sunflowerseed. Pakistan’s imports are also
down due to restrictions on import licenses of genetically engineered soybeans.
Global oilseed crush is reduced 3.4 million tons mainly on lower crush for China, Pakistan,
and Argentina. China’s crush is lowered on slower-than-expected pace to date. Pakistan’s
crush is reduced on lower available supplies. Argentina’s crush is lowered leading to
reduced soybean meal and oil shipments. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.5
million tons to 102.0 million, with lower South American stocks partly offset by higher stocks
for China.

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2022/23 is decreased 10,135 short tons, raw value (STRV)
from last month as a reduction in sugar production more than offsets small increases in
beginning stocks and imports. Louisiana sugar production is reduced by 82,858 STRV to
2.030 million. With the sugar campaign ended, USDA contacted mills regarding final crop
year production. Mills confirmed that yields were off from earlier USDA estimates due to the
freeze in late December. Cane sugar production in Florida is increased by 24,292 STRV to
2.014 million but is decreased in Texas by 9,790 STRV to 87,182. Both of these changes are
from processors’ forecasts in the Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Beet sugar production is
increased by 51,898 STRV to 5.100 million. Based on sugar production data for August
through December in the SMD, USDA increases its projection of sucrose recovery from
15.000 to 15.204 percent. Cumulative sucrose recovery for the 5 months is estimated at
15.433 percent. This estimate is statistically close to full season recovery, but USDA is
exercising some caution in recognition of statistical variance. Even so, five-month averages
in all major regions (Red River Valley, Michigan, Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest) exceed
10-year averages. (Processors in SMD are more optimistic forecasting national recovery at
15.592 percent.) The increase due to the higher recovery rate is offset partially by a 10,000
STRV reduction in August-September 2023 production due to the closure of the beet facility
in Sidney, Montana. Imports are increased by 4,725 STRV due to an upward revision of raw
sugar imports from the 2021/22 TRQ entering in December. With no change in use, the
supply changes flow into ending stocks, now projected at 1.874 million STRV for an ending
stocks-to-use ratio of 14.8 percent.
The 2022/23 Mexico supply and use is virtually unchanged from last month. USDA still
projects production at 5.900 million metric tons (MT). Most factories started late this season,
but most have caught up on harvested area from the perspective of the previous 9
campaigns and from the level predicted by CONADESUCA in its pre-season production
estimate. There still are significant variations amongst mills, especially those producing
refinado sugar. Cumulative sugarcane yields and sucrose recovery through January 28 are
still far below corresponding historical levels through the same date and below
CONADESUCA forecast. We are soon to enter the period in which USDA forecasting based
on to-date progress has enough statistical validity for updating the USDA projection.
WASDE-633-4

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use estimates
for 2022 are adjusted to reflect reported December production, ending stock, and trade data.
For 2023, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Slaughter is raised for the
first quarter but is partly offset by lower carcass weights as cow slaughter is larger than
previously forecast. For the second quarter, steer and heifer slaughter is lowered as fourthquarter 2022 placements were lower than expected, implying fewer animals available for
marketing in the second quarter. Lower fed cattle slaughter, coupled with lower average
carcass weights, more than offsets higher expected cow slaughter. Pork production is
lowered on slightly lighter first-half carcass weights. Broiler production is reduced for the first
three quarters based on recent hatchery data and the current pace of slaughter. Turkey
production is unchanged. Egg production is reduced slightly on recent layer flock data and
slower-than-expected production growth in December 2022.
Beef imports for 2023 are raised for the year with a higher first-quarter forecast partially
offset by lower second-quarter imports. The beef export forecast and the pork trade
projections are unchanged. Broiler imports and turkey exports are both lowered. Egg imports
are projected higher.
For 2023, cattle prices are raised on expected strength in first-half demand for fed cattle in
the face of tightening feedlot numbers. Hog prices are lowered for first-half 2023 reflecting
current price movements. First-half broiler prices are projected lower on weaker-thanexpected prices thus far in 2023. Egg prices for the first quarter are raised on recent prices.
Milk supply and use estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect reported December
production, ending stock, and trade data.
For 2023, milk production is forecast lower as weaker milk prices are expected to result in
lower cow inventories. The Cattle report estimated that the January 1, 2023 dairy cow
inventory was only fractionally above 2022 and that producers were retaining about 2 percent
fewer heifers for addition to the dairy herd. Output per cow is also reduced slightly. On both
fat- and skim-solids bases, imports for 2023 are raised on higher cheese and milk protein
containing products, while exports are reduced on lower sales of skim milk powder, cheese,
and several other products.
Prices are lowered for cheese as stocks remain relatively large and domestic demand is
expected to remain generally soft. Butter prices are unchanged as higher early-year prices
are offset by weaker prices later in the year. Nonfat dry milk powder and whey prices are
lowered on expectations of increased export competition and somewhat softer international
demand. Both Class III and Class IV prices are lowered from last month, reflecting lower
product price forecasts, and the all milk price is reduced to 20.70 per cwt.

COTTON: The 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly lower mill
use and higher ending stocks relative to last month, while production and exports are
unchanged. The mill use forecast is lowered 100,000 bales to 2.1 million on recent lower
rates of monthly utilization. The upland cotton marketing year average price received by
producers is projected at 83 cents per pound, unchanged from January.
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World 2022/23 cotton ending stocks are 850,000 bales lower this month as expected output
falls 1 million bales and consumption is projected 190,000 lower. India’s crop is reduced 1
million bales as a continued slow pace of market arrivals tempers previous optimism, and
Franc Zone production is 600,000 bales lower this month due to insect damage this season.
China’s crop is raised 500,000 bales on a record pace of Xinjiang inspections in January, and
Pakistan’s is raised 200,000 bales on favorable arrivals data. World 2022/23 consumption is
200,000 bales lower this month as a 500,000-bale increase for China is more than offset by
reduced expectations for Indonesia, Pakistan, the United States, and Vietnam. World trade
is projected 1.3 million bales lower, with prospective imports lower for Pakistan, Indonesia,
Egypt, and Bangladesh, and prospective exports lower for India, Brazil, Cote d’Ivoire, Benin,
and Egypt.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committees.

APPROVED BY:
SETH MEYER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE