Office of the
Chief Economist
Agricultural Marketing Service
Farm Service Agency
Economic Research Service
Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE – 632 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board January 12, 2023
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. outlook this month is for increased supplies, larger domestic use,
unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher beginning
stocks as reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use is raised 30
million bushels to 80 million based on higher second-quarter implied disappearance based
on the Grain Stocks report. Seed use is raised 3 million bushels to 69 million, reflecting
larger than expected winter wheat plantings reported in today’s NASS Winter Wheat and
Canola Seedings report. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered slightly as larger
domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is
unchanged at $9.10 per bushel.
The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks.
World supplies are raised 1.3 million tons to 1,058.1 million on production increases in
Ukraine and the EU. World consumption for 2022/23 is raised by 0.2 million tons to 789.7
million as higher feed and residual use for the United States more than offsets a decline for
Ukraine. Projected 2022/23 global trade is increased 0.8 million tons to 211.6 million as
increases for the EU and Ukraine more than offset a decline for India. EU and Ukraine
exports are raised 0.5 million tons each to 36.5 and 13.0 million respectively on higher
exportable supplies. Projected 2022/23 global ending stocks are raised 1.1 million tons to
268.4 million, with increases for the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and India more than offsetting
declines in Saudi Arabia and Iran.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, food,
seed, and industrial use (FSI), feed and residual use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn
production is estimated at 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is
more than offset by a 1.6 million acre cut to harvested area. Total corn use is reduced 185
million bushels to 13.915 billion. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion,
reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the lowest level of outstanding
sales as of early January since the 2019/20 marketing year. FSI use is lowered 10 million
bushels, with reductions in corn used for starch and glucose and dextrose. Feed and
residual use is down 25 million bushels to 5.275 billion, based on indicated disappearance
during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. With
supply falling more than use, 2022/23 corn stocks are lowered 15 million bushels. The
season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast down 7.3 million tons to 1,446.4
million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater trade, and
reduced stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and
Brazil partly offset by an increase for China. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting
declines to both area and yield, as heat and dryness during December and into early January
reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. Brazil corn
WASDE-632-2
production for 2022/23 is cut reflecting dry conditions for first-crop corn in parts of southern
Brazil. China corn production is higher based on the latest area and yield data from the
National Bureau of Statistics. Barley production is raised for the United Kingdom but lowered
for Ukraine.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2022/23 include increased corn exports for
Ukraine and reductions for Argentina and the United States. For 2021/22, Argentina’s
exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2022 are lowered based on observed
shipments to date, while Brazil is raised. Corn imports for 2022/23 are lowered for Vietnam
and Peru. China’s corn feed and residual use is raised based on a larger crop and lower
sorghum imports. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting reductions for
Ukraine, Brazil, Pakistan, and Paraguay with a partly offsetting increase for China. Global
corn stocks, at 296.4 million tons, are down 2.0 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice this month is for smaller supplies, higher domestic
use, decreased exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production
as NASS estimated all rice production at 160.4 million cwt, down 3.9 million from the
previous estimate. The all rice average yield is estimated at 7,383 pounds per acre, down
166 pounds from the prior estimate. All rice domestic and residual use is raised 5.0 million
cwt to 147.0 million on higher implied usage for August-November as indicated by the NASS
Rice Stocks report. Exports are lowered by 3.0 million cwt to 66.0 million, which would be
the lowest since 1985/86. Long-grain exports are reduced 2.0 million cwt to 49.0 million as
U.S. rice continues to face heightened South American competition in its core Western
Hemisphere markets. Medium- and short-grain exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 17.0
million on reduced exports to Northeast Asia markets. Projected 2022/23 all rice ending
stocks are lowered 6.0 million cwt to 32.1 million. The projected 2022/23 all rice seasonaverage farm price is raised $0.20 per cwt to $19.20, with increases in both the long-grain
and Other States medium-and short grain prices.
The 2022/23 global outlook is for larger supplies, reduced consumption, increased trade, and
higher ending stocks this month. Supplies are raised 0.5 million tons to 686.1 million, as
higher beginning stocks for Brazil, Vietnam, and Pakistan along with increased production for
India more than offset reduced production for China. World 2022/23 consumption is lowered
0.8 million tons to 516.1 million, mainly on reductions for China and Cambodia not
completely offset by increases for the Philippines and Pakistan. Projected world ending
stocks are raised 1.3 million tons to 170.0 million, primarily on increases for Vietnam, India,
and Brazil.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2022/23 is estimated at 126.0 million tons, down 2.0
million from the previous report on smaller soybean, sunflower, canola, and peanut crops.
Soybean production is estimated at 4.276 billion bushels, down 69 million led by reductions
for Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, and Kansas. Harvested area is estimated at 86.3 million acres,
down 0.3 million from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 49.5 bushels per acre, down
0.6 bushels. The soybean export forecast is reduced 55 million bushels to 2.0 billion,
reflecting lower supplies, reduced import demand for China, and a higher export forecast for
Brazil. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced exports, ending stocks are projected
at 210 million bushels, down 10 million from the previous forecast.
WASDE-632-3
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is projected at $14.20 per bushel, up 20
cents. The soybean meal price is projected at $425 per short ton, up 15 dollars. The
soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 68 cents per pound.
The 2022/23 foreign soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher stocks and lower
production, crush, and trade. Beginning stocks are raised due to an upward revision to
Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop to 129.5 million tons, driven by higher-than-expected use
through the end of the local year. Foreign 2022/23 soybean production is lowered 1.3 million
tons as lower production for Argentina and Uruguay is partly offset by higher production for
China and Brazil. Argentina’s soybean crop is reduced 4 million tons to 45.5 million on lower
area and early season heat and dry weather conditions. China’s soybean crop is increased
1.9 million tons to 20.3 million on reports from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Brazil’s
crop is increased 1.0 million tons to 153.0 million on higher area.
Foreign 2022/23 soybean crush is reduced 2.0 million tons mainly for Argentina and China.
Argentina’s crush is reduced on lower supplies while crush for China is reduced on a lowerthan-expected pace during the first quarter of the marketing year. Partly offsetting is higher
soybean crush for Brazil. Foreign soybean exports are reduced on lower exports for
Argentina that are partly offset by higher exports for Brazil. China’s imports are lowered 2
million tons to 96 million on lower crush demand. With higher beginning stocks and lower
use, global soybean ending stocks are increased 0.8 million tons to 103.5 million.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2022/23 is increased 178,027 short tons, raw value (STRV)
over last month. Revisions for 2021/22 increase 2022/23 beginning stocks by 4,472 STRV.
Louisiana production in September 2022 is increased by 19,259 STRV on processor
reporting. This is partially offset by an increase in miscellaneous adjustments in use reported
in the 2021/22 Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Because September production in Louisiana
is a product of the 2022/23 sugarcane harvest, Louisiana production in 2022/23 is adjusted
downward by the September 2022 amount but partially offset by an increase in projected
production in September 2023. More significantly, Louisiana production is increased due to
the January NASS forecast of sugarcane for sugar production increasing by 5.1 percent over
last month to 15,818,000 tons. Sucrose recovery is unchanged at 13.48 percent. Production
for the fiscal 2022/23 year is now 2,112,885 STRV, up 88,216 over last month.
NASS projects 2022/23 sugarbeet production at 32,574,000, a 2.65 percent reduction, based
on lower area harvested and yield. Lower sugarbeet production is more than offset by an
increase in sucrose recovery. Based on sugar production data for August through November
in the SMD, USDA projects sucrose recovery at 15.000 percent. This is up from last month’s
14.626 percent that was based on historical trend. The combined effect on 2022/23 beet
sugar production is an increase of 120,819 STRV to 5,048,318.
Sugar imports for 2022/23 are decreased by 35,480 STRV. Sugar under the 2021/22 TRQ
permitted to enter by the extension of the quota year to the end of December was 164,225
STRV and below that estimated last month by 85,943. An offset comes from an increase in
high-tier tariff imports by 50,000 STRV to 125,000 due to an expected increase in the pace of
high-tier tariff refined sugar imports for the rest of the year and an increase in raw sugar hightier imports recorded by Customs in December. Entries under the FTA TRQ are slightly
increased as well. With no change in use, the change in ending stocks is equal to the supply
WASDE-632-4
increase and the resulting ending stocks-to-use ratio is increased to 14.9 percent from 13.5
percent last month.
There are only small adjustments for 2022/23 Mexico supply and use. Exports are increased
by a slight 759 metric ton (MT) total of exports to destinations other than those to the United
States under license. With no change to ending stocks, deliveries to IMMEX are adjusted
down by 759 MT. USDA projects Mexico sugar production for 2022/23 the same as last
month at 5.900 million MT. USDA estimates that the sugar production campaign through the
end of December is at least 15 percent behind the pace established over the preceding 9
years. Although there is some confidence that the pace will be accelerated, the evidence to
date is lacking. The pace of the campaign will continue to be closely monitored.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat and poultry production for 2022 is lowered
from last month as higher broiler and turkey production in the fourth quarter is more than
offset by lower beef and pork. Changes reflect November production data and preliminary
estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December. Egg production is lowered
slightly based on production and flock data.
For 2023, the beef forecast is raised with higher expected slaughter of steers and heifers, as
well as cows and bulls. This increase is slightly offset by lower carcass weights. USDA’s
Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of the number of
cattle available for placement during 2023 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers
for addition to the breeding herd. Pork production is raised reflecting pig crop data for the
second half of 2022 and producer intentions for sow farrowing in the first half of 2023. Broiler
production is reduced for the first quarter based on recent hatchery data. Turkey production
is raised for the first quarter based on hatchery data. Egg production is reduced on a slower
expected pace of recovery.
Beef export estimates for 2022 are lowered and imports are unchanged on recent trade data.
For 2023, beef imports are raised, largely on higher expected imports from Brazil, but the
export forecast is unchanged. Pork imports for 2022 are lowered, but exports are
unchanged. For 2023, pork imports are lowered, but exports are raised. Broiler exports in
2022 are raised on recent trade data, while 2023 exports are lowered. Turkey exports are
lowered for both 2022 and 2023.
Price estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2023, cattle prices are
raised on expected strength in demand for fed cattle. Hog prices are raised in the middle
quarters of 2023 reflecting demand strength. Broiler prices are projected lower as weaker
prices in late 2022 are expected to carry over into 2023. Turkey and egg prices for 2023 are
raised on recent prices and expectations of continued firm demand and tight supplies.
Milk production for 2022 is lowered from last month with lower expected milk per cow. The
2023 production forecast is lowered with a smaller expected average cow inventory for the
year; output per cow is unchanged from last month. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be
released January 31, will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy
heifers for addition to the breeding herd.
Driven by recent trade data, fat basis imports for 2022 are unchanged with offsetting
changes for a number of products, but skim-solids basis imports are raised on expected
WASDE-632-5
demand for milk proteins. Strength in milk protein demand is expected to carry into 2023 and
the forecast for skim-solids imports is also raised. Fat basis imports for 2023 are unchanged.
Exports on a fat basis for 2022 are raised, largely on butter and cheese with stronger
expected butter exports supporting an increased forecast for 2023. Exports on a skim-solids
basis are raised in 2022 on stronger cheese and lactose shipments. The 2023 forecast is
raised on stronger skim milk powder exports.
For 2022, product and Class price estimates are adjusted to reflect reported prices. For
2023, the price forecasts for all components are lower with expectations of weak domestic
demand and price pressure in international markets. Forecasts for Class III and Class IV
prices are lowered. The 2022 all milk price forecast is lowered to $25.55 per cwt and the
2023 all milk price is lowered to $21.60 per cwt.
COTTON: This month’s U.S. 2022/23 cotton forecasts include higher production and ending
stocks, no change in U.S. mill use, and lower exports. Production is 438,000 bales higher, at
14.7 million, with yield at a record 947 pounds per acre, up 9 percent from the December
estimate. Exports are forecast 250,000 bales lower, at 12.0 million, with both projected world
trade and the U.S. share slightly lower this month. Ending stocks are up 700,000 bales to
4.2 million, equal to 30 percent of projected use. The upland season-average price received
by U.S. farmers is projected 2 cents lower this month at 83 cents per pound.
World 2022/23 ending stocks are forecast 370,000 bales higher this month as lower
production is more than offset by a reduction in consumption. World production is forecast
330,000 bales lower than it was in December as lower production in India more than offsets
gains in the United States and Brazil. Projected world consumption is 850,000 bales lower
this month, at 110.9 million bales, a 5.7-percent decline from the previous year. Compared
with the December outlook, India’s 2022/23 consumption is forecast 500,000 bales lower,
with smaller declines for Indonesia and Vietnam. Projected world trade is down 600,000
bales, to 41.7 million, as projected exports from the United States, India, and Argentina
decline. Imports by China, Indonesia, and Vietnam are also projected lower.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
JEWEL BRONAUGH
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE
WASDE-632-6
INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES
Note: The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Board’s analysts chair the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report.
Wheat: Mark Simone, ICEC Chair, WAOB, mark.simone@usda.gov
Andrew Sowell, ERS; Rachel Trego, FAS; Bruce McWilliams, FPAC.
Rice: Mark Simone, ICEC Chair, WAOB, mark.simone@usda.gov
Nathan Childs, ERS; Rachel Trego, FAS.
Feed Grains: Michael Jewison, ICEC Chair, WAOB, michael.jewison2@usda.gov
Todd Hubbs, ERS; Kevin Min, FAS; Jacob Vuillemin, FPAC.
Oilseeds: Keith Menzie, ICEC Chair, WAOB, keith.menzie@usda.gov
Maria Bukowski, ERS; Agata Kingsbury, FAS; Gustavo Ferreira, FPAC.
Cotton: Stephen MacDonald, ICEC Chair, WAOB, stephen.macdonald3@usda.gov
Leslie Meyer, ERS; Graham Soley, FAS; Kent Lanclos, FPAC.
Sugar: Stephen Haley, ICEC Chair, WAOB, stephen.haley2@usda.gov
Vida Abadam, ERS; Souleymane Diaby, FAS; Barbara Fecso, FPAC.
Meat Animals: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, shayle.shagam@usda.gov
Sherry Wise, AMS; Mildred Haley, ERS; John Brower, FAS; Georgi Gabrielyan, FPAC.
Poultry: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, shayle.shagam@usda.gov
Peyton Ferrier, AMS; Grace Grossen, ERS; Claire Mezoughem, FAS; Georgi Gabrielyan,
FPAC.
Dairy: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, shayle.shagam@usda.gov
Carolyn Liebrand, AMS; Angel Teran, ERS; Jeffery Dwyer, FAS; Georgi Gabrielyan,
FPAC.
In 2023 the WASDE report will be released on Feb 8, Mar 8, Apr 11
