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Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE – 631 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board December 9, 2022
WHEAT: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and use outlook is unchanged from last
month. There are offsetting changes for exports by-class with Hard Red Spring and White
higher and Soft Red Winter lower. The 2022/23 season-average farm price is forecast $0.10
per bushel lower at $9.10, based on prices received to date and expectations for futures and
cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 wheat is for reduced supplies, lower consumption,
increased trade, and reduced stocks. Supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million
on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia
production. Argentina is lowered 3.0 million tons to 12.5 million with reductions in both area
harvested and yield on continued widespread dry conditions. This would be the lowest
production since 2015/16. Canada’s production is reduced 1.2 million tons to 33.8 million,
based on the latest Statistics Canada estimate and is the third largest crop on record.
Australia’s production is raised 2.1 million tons to a record 36.6 million, based on the latest
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) forecast.
Global consumption is reduced 1.6 million tons to 789.5 million, mainly on lower feed and
residual use by the EU and Ukraine. World trade is raised 2.2 million tons to 210.9 million on
higher exports by Australia, Ukraine, the EU, and Russia more than offsetting reduced
exports by Argentina. Australia exports are raised 1.5 million tons to a near-record 27.5
million. Because of excessive rains in New South Wales at harvest, Australia’s feed wheat
supplies are expected to be greater for 2022/23 and competitively priced against feed grains
for East Asian importers. This resulted in higher imports for South Korea and several
Southeast Asian countries this month. Ukraine exports are increased 1.5 million tons to 12.5
million. Argentina’s exports are reduced 2.5 million tons to 7.5 million with lower exportable
supplies. This would be Argentina’s lowest exports since 2014/15. Projected 2022/23
ending stocks are decreased 0.5 million tons to 267.3 million as reductions for Russia,
Canada, Argentina, and Ukraine more than offset increases for the EU and Australia.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and greater
ending stocks. Exports are lowered 75 million bushels as competition from other exporters
and relatively high U.S. prices have resulted in slow sales and shipments through early
December. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are raised 75 million bushels.
The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.70 per
bushel based on observed prices to date.
For 2022/23 sorghum, a substantial decline in demand from China supports greater domestic
use expectations. Exports are lowered 20 million bushels, with offsetting increases to food,
seed, and industrial and feed and residual use.
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Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast down 5.9 million tons to 1,453.6
million. The 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater trade, and
smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is reduced with forecast
declines for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Vietnam. Ukraine corn production is sharply lower
with reductions to both area and yield as the ongoing conflict and record-setting autumn
rainfall have delayed the harvest in key producing oblasts of Poltava, Sumy, and Cherkasy.
Russia corn production is lowered as harvest delays in the country reduce area expectations.
Barley production is raised for Australia based on the most recent crop report from ABARES.
Argentina barley production is cut on continued dry conditions.
Corn exports are raised for Ukraine but lowered for the United States, Russia, and the EU.
Barley exports are raised for Australia but lowered for Argentina. For 2021/22, sorghum
exports for Argentina are lowered for the local marketing year beginning March 2022, based
on shipments through the month of November. For 2022/23, corn imports are raised for the
EU, but lowered for Canada, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, and Turkey.
Sorghum imports are reduced for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, reflecting
reductions for Ukraine, Paraguay, Vietnam, and Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 298.4 million
tons, are down 2.4 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, lower
exports, and higher stocks compared with last month. The export forecast is reduced 2.0
million cwt to 69.0 million, all long-grain, based on a slow pace of shipments and sales and
would be the lowest level since 1991/92. Rough rice exports are reduced 2.0 million cwt to
23.0 million, which would be the lowest level since 2000/01. Ending stocks are forecast 2.0
million cwt higher to 38.1 million.
The 2022/23 season average farm price (SAFP) forecasts for all medium- and short-grain
rice and all-rice were both lowered as the proportion of California rice for 2022/23 is expected
to be smaller. The medium- and short-grain SAFP forecast is lowered $0.90 per cwt to
$29.10 and the all-rice SAFP forecast is lowered $0.90 per cwt to $19.00. The SAFP for
long-grain rice is unchanged at $16.50 per cwt.
The 2022/23 global outlook has slightly lower supplies, less consumption, increased trade,
and slightly reduced ending stocks compared with last month. Supplies are lowered 1.2
million tons to 685.6 million, primarily on lower beginning stocks for Vietnam and Thailand
and reduced production in Australia and the EU. The global consumption forecast declines
0.9 million tons to 516.9 million, primarily on a reduction for India. Trade is forecast 0.9
million tons larger to 53.7 million tons, mainly on increased exports for India, Thailand, and
Vietnam. Global 2022/23 ending stocks are reduced by 0.4 million tons to 168.6 million, the
lowest since 2017/18.
OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2022/23 is forecast at 127.9 million tons, up
slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23
are unchanged from last month. Based on a review of EPA’s recent proposed rule for
renewable fuel obligation targets, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2022/23 is reduced 200
million pounds to 11.6 billion. Soybean oil exports are also reduced on historically low export
sales through November. With reduced use of soybean oil for biofuel and exports, food use
and ending stocks are raised. The U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is
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unchanged at $14.00 per bushel. The soybean oil price is reduced 1 cent per pound to 68
cents. The soybean meal price forecast is increased $10.00 to $410.00 per short ton.
Global oilseed production for 2022/23 is projected at 644.4 million tons, down 1.2 million from
last month. Lower sunflower, rapeseed, palm kernel, and cottonseed production forecasts
are partly offset by higher soybean output. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced for
Russia and Ukraine based on harvest results. Canola production for Canada is lowered 0.5
million tons to 19.0 million based on government reports. Palm kernel and palm oil
production is lowered for Indonesia for 2021/22, reflecting crop losses during periods of
export restrictions and poor harvest weather. Indonesian palm oil production for 2022/23 is
also lowered 1.0 million tons to 45.5 million.
The global soybean outlook includes higher production, exports, and ending stocks.
Production is raised on higher output for India and Ukraine. Exports are raised slightly as
higher shipments for Argentina are partly offset by lower exports for Canada and Paraguay.
With global crush relatively unchanged, ending stocks are raised 0.5 million tons to 102.7
million.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply in 2022/23 is virtually unchanged from last month as projected
changes in production are counterbalanced by projected imports of sugar from Mexico in
accordance with the terms of the CVD Suspension Agreements. Beet sugar production is
lowered 66,980 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 4.927 million. Beet processors reduced their
forecast of sugarbeets available for slicing by 252,846 tons in their December forecast
published in Sweetener Market Data. An increase in cane sugar production partially offsets
the beet sugar decline. Cane sugar production in Louisiana is increased by 18,460 STRV to
2.025 million. Although NASS decreased its sugarcane yield to 32.2 tons/acre from 32.4,
production is increased on more cane area for sugar instead of for seed and a 1.01 percent
increase in recovery projected by processors. Cane sugar in Texas is increased slightly on
processor reporting. Imports from Mexico are projected based on fulfilling U.S. Needs
according to components from this December WASDE which will be used by the Department
of Commerce in establishing the Export Limit as of January 1, 2023. There are no changes
to use. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.707 million STRV for an ending stocks-touse ratio of 13.5 percent, virtually unchanged from last month.
On November 23, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) issued a Withhold Release Order
(WRO) against Central Romana Corporation in the Dominican Republic (DR) on alleged use
of forced labor and other factors. The WRO prohibits entry into the United States of raw
sugar and sugar-based products produced by the company. The USDA has determined that
the DR sugar industry intends to re-configure distribution in the local sugar market and rearrange the company level allotments of the TRQ with the local mills to meet its full 2022/23
raw sugar TRQ allocation.
USDA projects Mexico sugar production for 2022/23 the same as last month at 5.900 million
metric tons (MT). CONADESUCA released its 2022/23 forecast of 6.026 million MT in
November. The USDA adopts CONADESUCA projected sugarcane yield of 64.06
MT/hectare and recovery of 11.30 percent, but projects area harvested only at 814,850
hectares, up about 15,000 hectares from last month but less than CONADESUCA’s forecast
of 832,245. Exports are projected at 1.266 million MT and almost all (barring a small amount
exported in October) is intended for the U.S. market under export license. Ending stocks are
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projected at a level covering 2023/24 use for 2.5 months prior to next season’s campaign.
Shipments to IMMEX are reduced by 38,886 MT to 494,114 to accommodate exports to the
U.S. market.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry
production is raised from last month as higher beef, broiler, and turkey forecasts for the
fourth quarter are partly offset by lower pork. Beef production is raised with higher expected
cattle slaughter as well as heavier carcass weights. Pork production is lowered on lighter
carcass weights. Broiler and turkey production are raised on current slaughter and hatchery
data. Egg production is raised slightly on revised third-quarter data.
For 2023, the beef forecast is unchanged, with offsetting first and second quarter changes.
Broiler production is raised on more rapid expected growth in bird numbers later in the year.
Turkey production is lowered for the first half of the year on recent discoveries of Highly
Pathogenic Avian Influenza. Egg production is reduced on a slower expected pace of
recovery.
Beef imports for 2022 are unchanged, but exports are raised on recent data. Exports are
raised for 2023 on expectations of continued momentum to East Asian markets. Pork
imports and exports for 2022 are both lowered on recent data. Pork imports for 2023 are
lowered slightly, while exports are unchanged. The broiler export forecast for 2022 is raised
on recent trade data, while 2023 exports are lowered. Turkey exports are unchanged, but
imports are raised for both years on current data and tightness in domestic supplies.
Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and broilers are unchanged for 2022 and 2023. The turkey
price forecast for 2022 is lowered on current price data, but the forecast for 2023 is
unchanged. Egg price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on recent prices and
expectations of continued firm demand and tight supplies.
The milk production forecast for 2022 is unchanged from last month. The 2023 production
forecast is raised slightly with both higher expected cow numbers and slightly more rapid
growth in output per cow.
Fat and skim-solids basis imports for 2022 are raised, driven by recent trade data and
expectations of continued demand for imported cheese and butterfat products. Forecasts for
2023 fat basis and skim-solids basis imports are raised on imports of butter and milk
proteins, respectively. Exports on a fat basis for 2022 and 2023 are raised on butter and
casein. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised in 2022 as higher nonfat dry milk (NDM)
more than offsets lower lactose. The 2023 forecast is reduced on lower lactose shipments.
For 2022, forecasts for butter and cheese are raised on recent prices and expectations of
continued strength in demand, but whey and NDM prices are unchanged. The Class III price
is raised on the higher cheese price and the Class IV price is raised on the higher butter
price. For 2023, the price forecasts for cheese and butter are raised as demand strength
carries into 2023, but prices for NDM and whey are lowered on pressure from international
markets. The higher cheese price more than offsets the lower whey price and the Class III
price is raised while the Class IV price forecast is lowered, reflecting the lower NDM price.
The 2022 all milk price forecast is raised to $25.65 per cwt and the 2023 all milk price is
raised to $22.70 per cwt.
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COTTON: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher production and ending
stocks but lower mill use and exports. Production is 211,000 bales higher—at 14.2 million
bales—mainly due to higher yields in the Delta and Southeast. Mill use is lowered 100,000
bales reflecting reduced spinning levels to date and weaker expectations for future demand.
A reduction in expected world demand and trade results in a 250,000-bale decrease for U.S.
cotton exports, down to 12.25 million. Ending stocks are now expected to be 500,000 bales
higher than they were a month earlier, but the upland cotton season-average farm price is
unchanged at 85 cents per pound.
The global 2022/23 cotton forecasts include lower production, consumption, and trade, but
higher ending stocks. Production is down 700,000 bales from the previous month’s forecast,
led by an 800,000-bale decline in Pakistan’s flood-damaged crop. Australian production is
estimated 500,000 bales lower, and Mali’s crop is reduced 120,000 bales. Higher than
expected yields in Turkey resulted in a 500,000-bale upward revision. Global consumption is
down 3.3 million bales from the previous month, and on a year-to-year basis world cotton use
is now projected to decline 4.9 percent, similar to the decline experienced in 2021/22. This
month’s changes to 2022/23 consumption include 1.0-million-bale reductions for China and
India, and smaller reductions for Pakistan, Turkey, and Vietnam. Projected world trade is cut
950,000 bales this month, with imports reduced for China, Turkey, and Vietnam. Exports are
reduced for Australia, Mali, Malaysia, India, and Brazil. World ending stocks are projected
2.3 million bales higher this month, and at 89.6 million bales are 4.1 million higher than in
2021/22.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committees.
