NOTE: Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of
agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally. The March WASDE
represents an initial assessment of the short-term impacts as a result of this action.
WHEAT: The 2021/22 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is for lower supplies,
unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lower
because imports are reduced 5 million bushels, all for Hard Red Spring wheat, on a
slowerthan-expected pace.
Exports are reduced 10 million bushels, down to 800 million, on weaker
than expected sales and shipments for Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter. Projected
2021/22 ending stocks are raised 5 million bushels to 653 million but are still 23 percent
lower than last year. The season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised $0.20 per bushel to
$7.50 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the
remainder of the marketing year (MY). Despite the recent sharp increases in futures and
cash prices, a significant majority of U.S. wheat has already been marketed this MY, limiting
the SAFP increase.
The 2021/22 global outlook this month is for higher production, decreased trade and
consumption, and larger ending stocks. Global output is raised mainly on an increase for
Australia, where an updated ABARES estimate raised production 2.3 million tons to a record
36.3 million. World exports are lowered by 3.6 million tons to 203.1 million, as decreases for
Ukraine and Russia are only partly offset by increases for Australia and India. Exports are
lowered for Ukraine by 4.0 million tons to 20.0 million, as the conflict in that country is
expected to disrupt exports from the Black Sea region. Russia exports are reduced 3.0
million tons to 32.0 million as vessel transportation is expected to be constrained by the
conflict and the imposition of economic sanctions. Partly offsetting these reductions are
increases for 2021/22 Australian and Indian exports, up 2.0 and 1.5 million tons respectively
to 27.5 and 8.5 million. Increased production and competitive prices are expected to boost
exports in Australia to a record level. India’s robust export pace is expected to continue
because of its ample stocks and rising global prices. Imports are lowered for many countries
including Turkey, Egypt, the EU, Afghanistan, Algeria, Kenya, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Yemen
based on reduced Black Sea wheat export availability and higher world prices. The 2021/22
global use forecast is lowered 0.8 million tons to 787.3 million, on slight decreases in many
countries, including India, that more than offset increased feed and residual forecasts for
Australia and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are raised 3.3 million tons to 281.5 million, as
increased stocks in Russia and Ukraine are only partly offset by declines in Turkey, India,
and the EU.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is for increased
food, seed, and industrial use, larger exports, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Corn
used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.350 billion, based on data through January
WASDE-622-2
from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production
data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of February.
Exports are raised 75 million bushels to 2.500 billion, reflecting expectations of sharply lower
exports from Ukraine. The projected season-average farm price is raised 20 cents to $5.65
per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 1.5 million tons higher to 1,498.9
million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and
greater ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast modestly
higher with increases for India and Russia that are partly offset by declines for Argentina and
South Africa. India corn production is higher with increases to both area and yield.
Argentina corn production is lowered as higher indicated area is more than offset by a
reduction in yield. South Africa corn production is down reflecting lower yield prospects.
Corn exports are raised for the United States and India but reduced for Ukraine. Imports are
lowered for Egypt, Algeria, Turkey, Israel, India, and Bangladesh. Barley exports are raised
for Australia and Canada but reduced for Ukraine. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher,
mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, India, and Russia that are partly offset by reductions
for Argentina, South Africa, and Bangladesh. Global corn ending stocks, at 301.0 million
tons, are down 1.3 million from last month.
RICE: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for stable supplies, unchanged
domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Exports are lowered by 1.0 million
cwt to 86.0 million with the decline for medium- and short-grain on the continued weak pace
of sales and shipments, particularly to the Middle East. Projected 2021/22 all rice ending
stocks are 34.5 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month but down 21 percent from last year.
The projected 2021/22 all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is $0.20 per cwt higher at
$15.90 per cwt. The long-grain SAFP is raised $0.50 per cwt to $14.00 on expectations of
elevated cash and futures prices for the remainder of the marketing year with higher
projected U.S. wheat, corn, and soybean prices. However, the medium- and short-grain
SAFP is reduced $0.50 per cwt to $21.60 on lower-than-expected NASS prices reported to
date for California rice.
The 2021/22 global outlook is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and
higher stocks. Rice supplies are raised 4.9 million tons to 701.6 million, mainly on higher
production for India, which is projected at a record 129.0 million tons, up 4.0 million. This is
based on the government’s Second Advanced Estimates of Production and a favorable and
extended monsoon season. India’s 2020/21 production was also increased by 2.1 million
tons to 124.4 million on the final government estimate. Global 2021/22 consumption is
increased 0.7 million tons to a record 511.1 million. World trade is 0.5 million tons higher at
51.3 million on greater exports by India and Thailand. India’s 2021/22 exports are forecast at
20.5 million tons, surpassing last year’s record 20.2 million. Projected 2021/22 world ending
stocks are raised 4.2 million tons to a record 190.5 million, primarily on increases for India
and Thailand. India accounts for 22 percent of global stocks at 42.0 million tons.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher exports and
lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean exports are raised 40
million bushels to 2.09 billion with lower production and reduced exports for South America.
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 285 million bushels, down 40 million from last
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month. With rising soybean oil prices, soybean oil used for biofuel is reduced this month.
Soybean oil exports are raised in response to reduced global sunflowerseed oil trade and
tighter global vegetable oil supplies.
Soybean and product prices are all raised this month. The U.S. season-average soybean
price for 2021/22 is forecast at $13.25 per bushel, up 25 cents. The soybean meal price is
forecast at $420 per short ton, up 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is raised 2 cents to 68.0
cents per pound.
Global 2021/22 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush,
exports, and stocks. Global soybean production is reduced 10.1 million tons to 353.8 million.
Brazil’s crop is lowered 7.0 million tons to 127 million, Argentina is lowered 1.5 million tons to
43.5 million, Paraguay is lowered 1.0 million tons to 5.3 million, and Uruguay is lowered 0.6
million to 2.0 million. While global soybean crush is lowered 5.0 million tons on a slowerthan-expected crush pace for China and lower South American supplies, sunflowerseed
crush is reduced another 2.2 million mainly for Ukraine. Major markets impacted by lower
Ukrainian sunflowerseed crush and product exports include India and the EU. Lower
sunflower product supplies in these markets are partly offset by higher soybean oil imports
for India and rapeseed imports for the EU.
Tighter oilseed supplies and high oilseed meal and vegetable oil prices reduce forecasts for
global demand growth. Global 2021/22 soybean trade is reduced 6.4 million tons to 158.6
million, with lower exports for South America that are partly offset by higher U.S. exports.
Imports for China are reduced 3 million tons to 94 million. Other markets with lower imports
include Russia, Bangladesh, Egypt, the EU, Pakistan, Argentina, and Belarus. Global
soybean stocks are lowered 2.9 million tons to 90.0 million, the lowest level since 2015/16.
SUGAR: USDA projects an increase in 2021/22 U.S. sugar use combined with a reduction in
supply to decrease ending stocks to 1,692,320 short tons, raw value (STRV) for an ending
stocks-to-use ratio of 13.6 percent. U.S. sugar deliveries for human consumption are
increased by 100,000 STRV to 12,300,000 based on strong to-date deliveries by beet
processors and on higher-than-expected direct consumption imports though the end of
January. U.S. sugar supply for 2021/22 is decreased 26,152 STRV as decreases in sugar
production are only partially offset by increases in imports. Florida sugar production is
decreased 45,059 STRV to 1,959,570 based on lower sugarcane yield and sucrose recovery
from processors’ analyses of the effect of late January freezes on the crop. Beet sugar
production is decreased 12,183 STRV to 3,995,680 on processors’ forecast of lower sucrose
extraction and an increase in beet pile shrink. Imports are increased by 31,091 STRV to
3,043,041. Raw sugar TRQ imports are increased by 20,591 STRV based on updated FAS
analysis of expected TRQ shortfall. High-tier tariff sugar imports are increased by 25,000
STRV to 175,000. High-tier tariff imports are estimated at 126,272 STRV through the end of
February. Raw sugar imports constitute about 62 percent of the total. Since the December
2021 sugar WASDE, the USDA has been projecting monthly high-tier tariff refined sugar
imports at about 7,250 STRV. Extending this projection across the remaining seven months
of the fiscal year yields the 175,000 STRV projection. Imports from Mexico are projected at
1,050,212 STRV, a reduction of 14,500.
The net change for the Mexico 2021/22 sugar supply and use balance is a small 4,000 metric
ton (MT) reduction in imports accompanied by a reduction of the same amount in exports.
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Exports to the United States for 2021/22 are projected at 898,808 MT, a decrease of 12,410
from last month. Calculated U.S. Needs implied by the March 2022 U.S. Sugar WASDE as
set out in the AD/CVD Suspension Agreements is 887,843 MT (1,037,400 STRV). There is
an additional export amount of 10,965 MT (12,812 STRV) from the 2020/21 export allocation
to Mexico that was permitted by the U.S. Department of Commerce to enter the United
States after September 30. Exports other than to the United States under export license
increase by 8,410 MT to 852,025.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2022 forecast for total red meat and poultry
production is lowered slightly from last month, as higher forecast beef and turkey production
is more than offset by lower projections for pork and broilers. The beef production forecast is
raised from the previous month on higher fed and non-fed cattle slaughter. Pork production
is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights. Broiler
production is lowered on lower slaughter to date and a slower-than-previously-expected
recovery in hatchability. Turkey production forecasts are raised on early-year hatchery data.
The egg production forecast is reduced on slower expected growth in first-half production.
Supply and use estimates for 2021 are adjusted for revisions in production and stock data.
Beef import and export forecasts are raised from last month based on recent trade data.
Pork imports are raised on strong domestic prices, while exports are reduced on increased
competition in a number of Asian markets. The broiler export forecast is reduced as higher
prices reduce export opportunities. The turkey export forecast is reduced from last month
primarily as recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza have resulted in import
restrictions by Mexico.
Fed-cattle prices are raised on firm packer demand and declining inventories of fed cattle.
Hog prices are raised on observed prices to date and expected strength in demand. Broiler,
turkey, and egg price forecasts are raised on current prices and relatively slow production
growth.
The milk production forecast for 2022 is lowered from last month, on lower dairy cow
numbers and slower growth in milk per cow. The fat basis import forecast is lowered on
lower expected imports of cheese and butterfat products, while exports are reduced on lower
shipments of whole milk powder and whey. On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is
raised, primarily as higher imports of milk proteins more than offset weaker cheese imports.
The export forecast is reduced on weaker expected sales of whey products and skim milk
powders. Changes in 2021 estimates of supply and use reflect revised production and stock
data.
Price forecasts for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey are raised from the previous
month on current prices, lower expected production, and continued demand strength. With
higher product prices, both Class III and the Class IV prices are raised. The 2022 all milk
price forecast is increased to $25.05 per cwt.
COTTON: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts are unchanged
relative to last month. The projected marketing year average price received by upland
producers is also unchanged, at 90 cents per pound.
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In the world 2021/22 cotton balance sheet, ending stocks are 1.7 million bales lower than a
month earlier. A 300,000-bale decrease in production accounts for some of this change, but
most of the decline stems from lower beginning stocks, reflecting updated Indian
consumption estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21 to reflect Indian government sources.
Projected world 2021/22 consumption is marginally higher this month, up 111,000 bales, but
with a 1-million-bale increase in the 2020/21 global estimate, March’s projected consumption
growth rate is lower this month. World consumption is now expected to grow 2.1 percent
from a year earlier, below the 2.8 percent rate forecast in February. Production is projected
lower as a 500,000-bale reduction in India’s crop more than offsets a 150,000-bale increase
for Mexico.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
SETH MEYER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE
